Thursday, October 31, 2013

Congrats to Red Sox; Quant Facts now 36-22 (62.1%)

Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox, who have now won three World Series in the past ten years!   Although our quant facts article in the New York Times gave the edge to the underdog St. Louis Cardinals, several people (including co-author Jay Granat) pointed out the emotional high and mental toughness related to "Boston Strong."  That factor is hard to measure, but certainly helped with the Red Sox drive to the championship.

I (Carlton) was torn with my loyalties in this World Series, because our article pointed to the Cardinals, but my heart was with the Red Sox, having been up in Boston (well, in Cambridge) during my college years.  At least in spirit, I was with my friends up in New England, at "Little Fenway."  :)

Red Sox fans might like some of these pictures and the party at Little Fenway.


Congrats also to the St. Louis Cardinals, who had a great season; the Cards have won two World Series in the past ten years.

Our quant fact predictions now stand at 36-22, or 62.1% -- using sports psychology factors that are often overlooked by sports analysts.  This is a decent result, because we sometimes go against the grain and pick underdogs (like this year's World Series).

Carlton Chin, CFA, enjoys applying quantitative techniques to study everything from sports analytics to the financial markets and asset allocation.  His work has been used by sports organizations, institutional investors and college universities.  Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of  Dr. Granat works with athletes of all levels, from high school athletes up to Olympic gold medalists, and has been named one of America's Top 10 Mental Gurus.  

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Who Will Win the 2013 World Series

Here is our analysis for this year's World Series, published in the New York Times.  

 In particular, our work relates key statistical factors to concepts of sports psychology like leadership, consistency and minimizing errors. Based on this research, we focused on factors that might help predict the winner of the World Series between the Boston Red Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals, which begins Wednesday night.

Carlton J. Chin, a portfolio strategist and fund manager, and Jay P. Granat, psychotherapist, are authors of “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method.” They have previously written about the N.C.A.A. men’s basketball tournament, the N.B.A. finals and theN.H.L. Stanley Cup finals.

The sports psychology factors point to the St. Louis Cardinals, even though the Boston Red Sox are a slight favorite.  The Cardinals will count in our official "quant fact" predictions.  

Read more here:

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Quant Facts now 36-21 (63.2%)

With the tennis U.S. Open predictions completed, our "quant fact" sports predictions are now 36-21, for a 63.2% winning percentage.   Our U.S. Open predictions were based on the application of Monte Carlo techniques applied to each player's ability to hold and break serve, as mentioned in our New York Times article.

The tennis model built on other Monte Carlo research for New York Times football and basketball articles -- and other projects.  In addition to the Monte Carlo tennis research, we recently applied methods used by sabermetricians to baseball and other sports -- to an in-depth study of the all-time tennis greats (discussed briefly, here).

Our quant fact predictions are based on statistical and quantitative models that study factors related to sports psychology, where possible.  We sometimes key in on factors that sports analysts may undervalue -- so we sometimes find value on the underdog.  Thus, a 63% winning percentage is respectable, considering that we sometimes go against the grain (like we did, incorrectly, in the Nadal- Djokovic U.S. Open Final).

Carlton Chin is a portfolio strategist and fund manager.  An MIT-trained "quant," Carlton likes to apply statistical and probabilistic models to the financial markets, portfolio construction, and sports.  
Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and has worked with athletes of all levels.  Jay is the founder of