2018 March Madness: Title Game

We ran our sports psychology analytics and published our official quant fact prediction.  Historically, we have done very well with college basketball. 

Our published results have been correct about 65% of the time, often picking underdogs.

This evening’s title game sees Villanova tip-off against Michigan. What do our sports psychology “quant facts” have to say about the big game?

Please read here for more info:
https://sportsquants.kinja.com/2018-final-four-who-will-win-the-ncaa-mens-hoops-title-1824253318

Who Will Win the 2015 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?

Our "quant fact" predictions split the Final Four semifinal games.  Here is our prediction for the 2015 men's basketball National Championship game.


Full link:

https://quantfacts.sportsblog.com/posts/2098032/2015_men_s_ncaa_basketball_championship__who_will_win_the_big_game_.html

Please follow us at:
https://quantfacts.sportsblog.com/


Carlton Chin is a fund manager, MIT-trained quantitative analyst, and co-author of “Who Will Win the Big Game?" He has been quoted by the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, and ESPN -- and worked with the Sacramento Kings on the 2014 NBA Draft. Dr. Jay Granat is the co-author of the "Who Will Win" book and owner of StayInTheZone.com.   

2014 Final Four: Who Will Win

Our quant fact predictions for the 2014 Final Four are summarized in the article below.  Here is an excerpt:

This research goes back to 1985 when the NCAA Tournament went to its current format.   

...

In a close game, free throws can make the difference between winning and losing a championship. The team with a better free throw percentage has won 73 percent of national title games since this data became available.

This factor favors Connecticut and its 77.4 free throw percentage over the Florida Gators at 66.7 percent. In the other semifinal matchup, the Wisconsin Badgers (74.1 percent) best the Wildcats (68.5 percent) in free throw shooting.

...

Research shows that defense does indeed win championships. The team with the better field goal percentage defense has won an overwhelming 92 percent of national championship games since this data became available.

Connecticut edges Florida in this statistic 39.2 percent to 39.9 percent. Interestingly, for all of the talk about Wisconsin’s defense, Kentucky rates better in field goal percentage defense 41.0 percent to 42.7 percent.

The sports psychology quant facts for the two semifinal games favor Connecticut over Florida and Kentucky over Wisconsin. 

Connecticut 4 (Experience, Leadership, Free Throws, FG Defense) – Florida 1 (Coach)

Kentucky 3 (Experience, Coach, FG Defense) – Wisconsin 1 (Free Throws)

Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/ncaa-basketball/2014/04/04/2014-final-four-sports-psychology-by-the-numbers/#pX7Vqz2F97Er2ktY.99

Our quant facts favor Connecticut and Kentucky in the semifinal games.  

***

For the Final: 
http://www.rantsports.com/ncaa-basketball/2014/04/06/2014-ncaa-tournament-who-will-win-the-big-game/

NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Game (2013)

Below is an excerpt from our article in the NY Times, based on quant research of factors related to sports psychology, 

...we focused on factors that might help predict the winner of the N.C.A.A. tournament championship game between Louisville and Michigan. Last year’s article correctly selected Kentucky to win the national title.

With an eye toward key concepts of sport psychology, we looked at factors like big-game experience, leadership behind the bench, leadership on the court, error control and consistency. 

Consistency:  The team with the higher 3-point shooting percentage has won 11 of the last 14 title games.  Free-throw shooting percentage is also a measure of consistency, and teams with the higher free0throw percentage have gone 10-4 over the past 14 championship games.

In the table below, we list the performance of the Final Four teams in consistency categories like 3-point shooting and free-throw percentage.  We also included turnovers and a defensive measure because these are also championship traits.

	Louisville	Michigan
3-pt shooting%	32.9%	38.3%
Free-throw %	70.7%	70.0%
Turnovers per game	12.5	9.4
FG shooting defense	39.2%	42.3%

Who Will Win the Big Game?  Louisville has more championship factors in its favor, by a narrow 4-3 margin.  Based on our championship factors and season statistics, we developed a Monte Carlo simulator for college basketball, similar to the methodology we used for our football analyses.  The most frequently-occurring score was  Louisville 70, Michigan 69.

Read more here:

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/08/keeping-score-which-team-has-the-stats-of-a-champion/#more-46404

Quant Facts now 61.5% (32-20)

Our methods continue to perform particularly well in March Madness, with our quant facts correctly predicting the winners of both semifinal games of the Final Four.  Our Monte Carlo simulations also performed well, with predictions relatively close to the actual final scores.

Our model predicted a Louisville win of 69-62 (Louisville wins by 7), with the actual final score being 72-68 (Louisville by 4).  Similarly, our Monte Carlo simulations predicted Michigan to win by a score of 69-66 (Michigan by 3).  The actual final score was Michigan 61-56 (Michigan by 5).

Stay tuned for our analysis of the National Championship game on Monday.   

2013 Final Four (March Madness)

Based on quant research of factors related to sports psychology, we focused on several championship characteristics that might help predict the winner of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.  Last year’s article correctly selected Kentucky to win the national title.  

Consistency: Research has shown that consistency and error measures are also important to winning championships.  The team with the higher 3-point shooting percentage has won 11 of the last 14 title games.  Free throw shooting percentage is also a measure of consistency, and teams with the higher free throw percentage have gone 10-4 over the past 14 championship games. 

In the table below, we list the performance of the Final Four teams in consistency categories such as 3-point shooting and free-throw percentage.  We also include experience and leadership factors we discussed – as well as turnovers and a defensive measure, because these are also championship traits.

Who Will Win the Big Game?  Louisville has more championship factors in its favor than Wichita State, including big game experience and coaching leadership.  Wichita State has three-point shooting in its favor – while two factors (FG Shooting Defense and Turnovers per game) are very close.  In the other semifinal matchup, Michigan has more championship factors in its favor.  

Syracuse has coaching leadership and defense in its favor, but the other factors point to Michigan.

Based on our championship factors and season statistics, we developed a Monte Carlo simulator for college basketball, similar to the methodology we used for our football analyses.  The results for the simulations are centered around:  Louisville 69 – Wichita State 62 in the first semifinal game, and Michigan 69 – Syracuse 66 in the second semifinal game. 

Read more here:

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/677712-carlton-chin/1728391-final-four-factors-march-madness-2013

Quant Facts: 28-18

Kentucky's win in the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Game brings our quant fact predictions to 28-18 for a winning percentage of 60.9% in published predictions on our book's blog.  We have done particularly well during the Final Four over the past three years, with our focus on factors related to:

• Leadership both on the court (All-Americans) and behind the bench (coaching),
• Experience - which leads to confidence
• Consistency - factors that relate to a consistently high level of play.  

Time-Lapse: Final Four Court Setup

This is a fun time-lapse video of the court set-up for this year's Final Four in New Orleans.  It took five weeks to set things up -- but you can watch it in two minutes!