The 2020 NBA Finals: LA Lakers or Miami Heat?

The Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat tip-off this week for the 2020 NBA Finals. What do our “championship factors” have to say about the Finals?

Read more here: 

https://medium.com/@carltonjchin/who-will-win-the-2020-nba-finals-6900cf7c7100

Carlton Chin, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer (CIO) and Head of Research at CARAT Capital and an RIA (CPA) and has served as head of investments and research (as well as portfolio manager) for Goldman Sachs, Commodities Corp., Mt. Lucas, and Price Asset/Adamah.  Carlton is a specialist in portfolio construction, alternative assets, quant research, and downside risk management. He has been quoted by the Wall St. Journal, NY Times, and Financial Trader -- and holds both SM and SB degrees from MIT.

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.

Quant Fact Update (56-29=65.9%) and More

Please keep an eye on our column at Kinja for updated articles.  We recently updated our Quant Fact record, and also published an NBA article: 

• Our record on published sports predictions now stands at 65.9%, pending results on the NBA and NHL finals.  
• We also wrote about Quant Analysis and the financial markets / investments.
• Read more here:
• https://sportsquants.kinja.com/quantitative-analysis-quant-facts-and-more-1835300590

• If you haven't yet seen it, here's our NBA article:
• https://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-wins-the-2019-nba-finals-golden-state-or-toronto-1835133123

Predicting the 2019 Stanley Cup Finals

What do our championship factors say about this year’s NHL Stanley Cup Finals between the St. Louis Blues and Boston Bruins?

Big Game Experience

Big game experience and the related factor of confidence play a large role in winning....

Please read our article on this year's NHL Finals here:
https://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-will-win-the-2019-stanley-cup-finals-1835050417

We'll have an article on the NBA Finals in a few days.

Quant Facts Update (54-28 = 65.9%)

It's been a while since we updated the official record for our Quant Fact predictions.  With successful picks in the 2019 Super Bowl, as well as the second half of 2018, our record has improved to 54-28 -- for a winning percentage of 65.9%.  

We study sports analytics and sports psychology and focus on factors such as the fundamentals, execution, and leadership.  These are concepts that athletes and sports organizations can "key in" on as they put together a team.  Our quant fact predictions sometimes differ from the general consensus -- and our record is a testament to the unique and strong combination of quant analytics and sports psychology.  

We will be publishing our Quant Fact predictions for the Final Four as March Madness comes to an end this weekend.  We have historically done well with college basketball.  Please check our blog (as well as our Sports Quant kinja page:  https://sportsquants.kinja.com/

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is a fund manager and quant researcher focused on portfolio strategy and sports analytics. An adjunct Professor at Rowan University, Carlton has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings— and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America’s Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. A former university professor, he has authored several books on sport psychology — and has appeared on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.

   

2015 Stanley Cup and NBA Finals

Our quant fact predictions are posted here:

2015 Stanley Cup Finals

2015 NBA Finals


Enjoy the games!

2014 NBA Finals: Who Will Win the Big Game?

Below is an excerpt from our analysis of this year's NBA Finals. We quantify statistics related to sports psychology to study the importance of key concepts such as leadership, experience, focus on fundamentals and defense, and minimizing errors.  Over the years, we have been able to predict the winners of major championships at a rate of 63.5% -- while sometimes going against the grain and selecting underdogs.

Together with Dr. Jay Granat, a psychotherapist, I quantified factors related to sports psychology. Our “quant facts” have successfully predicted the winner of this year’s Super Bowl and NCAA Men’s Final Four. Over the past several years, our predictions have been correct 63.5 percent of the time for major championships, while sometimes picking underdogs.

In part one of the series, we learned that the Miami Heat have an edge over the San Antonio Spurs in important factors such as big game experience and defense. What do the numbers say about other factors related to sports psychology?

Read more at: 
http://www.rantsports.com/nba/2014/06/05/2014-nba-finals-numbers-predict-who-will-win/?ft1A1QzGxUPoyZVu.99

Please also read our analysis for the 2014 NHL Stanley Cup Finals.

Quant Fact Predictions now 35-20 (63.6%)

With our predictions for both the Stanley Cup Finals and NBA Finals correct, our quant fact predictions improve to 35-20, or 63.6%.  Our work shows the power of quantifying concepts related to sports psychology.  Sometimes our championship factors agree with the general consensus, but sometimes we pick against generally-accepted favorites.  As one of our readers said, "I'll take 65% all day long!"

The factors we focus on are more easily coached -- and can help improve results.  These include a focus on the fundamentals, minimizing errors, and methods to improve confidence.  

***

Stay tuned for our work focusing on baseball pitching -- 

and how pitchers can improve their results.  

Please vote in our POLL to the left.
Or Click Here.

Who Will Win the 2013 NBA Finals?

Here's an excerpt from our analysis that was published in the New York Times.  Please click on the link below for the entire article.

Based on this research, we focused on several championship characteristics that might help predict the winner of the N.B.A. finals. We also applied a Monte Carlo simulation similar to methods used in our previous articles to compute series probabilities for the NBA finals between the Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs.

Big Game Experience: Over the past 23 years, the team with more finals appearances over the previous three years has 12 of 15 (80.0%) in N.B.A. finals. The Miami Heat are in their third consecutive finals, winning the title last year. Edge: Miami.

...We ran a Monte Carlo simulation based on our factors and the home-away schedule for this year’s N.B.A. finals. The simulation says that Miami has a 71.2 percent chance of winning, with the following probabilities:

Please click below for the probabilities and the whole article.  

http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/keeping-score-key-statistics-favor-heat/

Quant Facts 29-18 (6/22/12)

Quant Facts & Sport Psychology Predict the NBA Champion

Congratulations to both the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder on great NBA seasons.  We look forward to years of exciting action from these teams and players.  The 2011-12 strike-shortened season had many exciting moments -- and super performances from many teams in addition to the finalists, including the Bulls, Celtics, and Spurs.

With the Miami Heat taking the 2012 NBA Championship, our "Who Will Win" blog's "quant fact" record improves to 29-18 (61.7%).  It is noteworthy that the Oklahoma City Thunder was a favorite to defeat Miami in the NBA Finals.  This is a testament to the power of "the concepts of sports psychology": championship traits (related to sport psychology) sometimes go against conventional wisdom -- but have been correct more than 60% of the time, between two fairly evenly-matched champions.

In particular, our work has shown that "big game experience" is one of the most important factors (even at the highest level!) -- and the relationship between experience and confidence can yield that elusive mental edge.  Experience, confidence, and mental toughness can have a material impact on results.

We had no official quant fact prediction in the NHL -- although some readers pointed out that if we went purely by the numbers, the quant facts would have been correct!



Carlton Chin, CFA, an MIT-trained "quant" and portfolio strategist and Dr. Jay Granat, a psychotherapist and sports psychologist, wrote "Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Approach."  Chin is a specialist in risk management and asset allocation -- and Granat is founder of StayInTheZone.com. 

Greatest Runs in the NBA Playoffs

The Miami-Oklahoma series has had some great games so far.  With the 2012 NBA finals going on, ESPN published a nice article about some of the greatest runs during the NBA playoffs.  We like to rate and rank all-time great teams and players -- and with today's playoffs being so long (several rounds of seven-game series), the teams mentioned in the article rank up there with some of the greatest teams in history.


In addition, based on the level of competition -- and the stars in today's game, Miami and Oklahoma City are no slouches (in the all-time great teams lists)!  Miami had to overcome Boston & Indiana, while OKC had to defeat the Spurs and Lakers -- just to reach this year's finals.   


http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2012/story/_/page/greatestruns-1-5/nba-playoffs-ranking-greatest-runs

2012 NBA Finals (NY Times)

Our "Who Will Win" analysis was published in the NY Times.  Here's an excerpt:

Big Game Experience: Over the past 22 years, the team with more finals appearances over the previous three years has won 11 of 14 finals series (78.6 percent) in which one team had more experience than the other. This factor favors the Miami Heat, who are in their second straight N.B.A. finals.

Error Control: In baseball, fielding percentage during the regular season is correlated to winning the World Series. Similarly, in professional basketball, the team with fewer turnovers during the regular season has won 72.7 percent of the N.B.A. finals (16-6) over the past 22 years. This factor favors Miami (1,002 turnovers) over Oklahoma City (1,079 turnovers).

Over all: The championship factors favor the Heat, 3-2. Indeed, several of the strongest factors, like big-game experience and error control, predict that James will come away with his first championship with Miami. 

Miami is our "book blog's" official "quant fact" prediction.

Read more here:
http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/12/keeping-score-reading-statistics-like-tea-leaves/ 

Quant Fact Predictions now 24-13

We're still licking our wounds from the NHL & NBA Finals -- but it goes to show you that the statistics won't be correct all of the time -- but they DO put the "wind at your back."

• Vancouver was beaten by a red-hot goalie who was definitely "in the zone" as well as hard-nosed, great playoff hockey by the Bruins.
• Miami was defeated by unbelievable teamwork, a quiet leader and star named Dirk Nowitzki -- and huge veteran play by Jason Kidd.  
• Congrats to both champions, the NBA's Dallas Mavericks & the NHL's Boston Bruins.

Our book's blog's record in "quant fact predictions" now stands at 24-13 (64.9%), still a solid record that is based on quantifying concepts of sports psychology.  The statistics add several interesting angles to sports analytics -- and regularly picks underdogs.     

Quant Facts: Predictions now 24-11

With Miami defeating Chicago in the NBA semifinals, our blog's record is now 24-11 in quant fact predictions.

We will analyze the NBA Finals and NHL Finals within a few days. Please visit our blog -- and/or sign-up to receive notice when we update our blog or twitter (z-trader).

NBA: Eastern Conference Finals

There is a lot of interest in the NBA Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls.  Based on an analysis of factors related to the NBA factors we have researched in our book, "Who Will Win the Big Game?" -- and applied for the NY Times for last year's NBA Finals, we favor the Miami Heat over the Chicago Bulls.  Here are several of the key factors (2 factors for Miami; 1 for Chicago):

• Leadership -- and star power.  LeBron James has his fans -- and his detractors...  In either case, he is an NBA "great" who can control the game and help "will" his team to victory.
• Consistency -- field-goal percentage points to Miami over Chicago.
• Defense -- points to Chicago.  

This prediction will count for our blog's "official" quant fact results.

Who Will Win? Predictions update

The NHL & NBA Finals are over. We had predicted that the Lakers would win, based on championship characteristics and "quant facts" (backed up by a statistical analysis of 30 years of data) such as superstar presence and coaching greatness. It was a great series, and the Lakers prevailed in a difficult seven games.

On the other hand, the statistical data and championship factors leaned towards the underdog Flyers in the Stanley Cup Finals. This prediction was based on their goal tending and coach (who was successful in winning in his only previous Stanley Cup Finals appearance).

This brings the predictions, based on the Championship Characteristics in our book, "Who Will Win the Big Game? A Mathematical and Psychological Method" to 14-5.

Note that we sometimes select surprising underdogs based on these "winning factors" -- which are related to concepts of sports psychology such as minimizing errors (and not necessarily the general consensus as to who the better team is...).

Please check out this article that was picked up by EzineArticles, for more information.

NBA Finals Analysis -- in NY Times

http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/03/which-team-has-the-right-stuff-to-win-the-title/?scp=1&sq=carlton%20chin&st=cse

Excerpt:

This year’s N.B.A. finals present an interesting case. The two leadership factors point to the Lakers (coaching and star leadership), but the statistical factors (defense and consistency) favor the Celtics. Note, however, that the leadership factors have been the stronger factors over the years.

NBA Finals -- Factors Favor Lakers Slightly

More detailed info will be available shortly...

...

This year’s N.B.A. Final presents an interesting dilemma. The two leadership factors point to the Lakers (coaching and star leadership), but the other two factors (defense and consistency) favor the Celtics. Note, however, that the leadership factors have been the stronger factors over the years. In particular, the past twenty years have seen stars like Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan lead their teams to championships at a rate of 70% (14-6).