2014 Winter Olympics: Will the U.S. WIn a Medal in Men's Hockey?

Below is an excerpt of an article we wrote on Team USA's men's hockey team chances at the 2014 Winter Olympics.


The opening ceremonies for the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi were almost a week ago and men’s hockey is getting started. What are the chances of Team USA taking home a medal? And what about a gold?

Some people have questioned the choice of the U.S. team to overlook potentially more talented NHL stars in favor of gritty, more defensive-minded players. Team USA passed on three of the top nine American NHL scoring stars and instead chose players like gritty Winnipeg Jets forward Blake Wheeler.

Although some are unhappy about the choice of seemingly less-skilled players, I like the strategy of going for two-way players, leadership and team chemistry. Many would agree that the Canadian and Russian teams are loaded with talent. It would be difficult to beat the two favorites at their own game — and skating with them in a high-scoring, offensive-minded affair. However, by going for a grittier style of play, there is more of a chance for an upset. In addition, Team USA is strong in terms of leadership, with eight players who are captains or co-captains of their respective NHL teams.

Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/clubhouse/2014/02/12/2014-winter-olympics-will-team-usa-win-gold-in-mens-hockey/


Herb Brooks put it best:

"I am not looking for the best players... I am looking for the right players."

http://vancouver2010.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/22/how-miraculous-was-the-miracle/?scp=1&sq=miraculous%20miracle&st=cse

Carlton Chin, CFA, an MIT graduate, enjoys applying numbers to everything from sports analytics to the financial markets. He is a portfolio strategist and fund manager and has been featured in the NY Times,RantSports, Wall St. Journal, SeekingAlpha & Financial Trader.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, is founder of StayInTheZone.com and was named one of America's Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest. He has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. A former university professor and has appeared on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.

Together, Carlton & Jay quantify concepts of sports psychology such as leadership, team chemistry, and focus on fundamentals -- and have worked with sports organizations. 

2012 World Series: Leadership and Consistency

Here's an excerpt from our analysis of the 2012 World Series.

Pitching Leadership

Leadership on the playing field has proven to be statistically significant in its relationship to winning the big game across all sports we have studied. In baseball, top starting pitchers are a key leadership factor - and are a good indicator of success during baseball's short playoff series. The finalist with the better top of the rotation, measured by total wins by its top two pitchers, has won 67 percent of the World Series over the past 22 World Series (over 23 years because there was no postseason in 1994). This factor goes to the Detroit Tigers, whose top two starting pitchers, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, edge San Francisco's top starters, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner (33 combined wins to 32).

In total, our analysis points to the Detroit Tigers.  

Read more here:

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/677712-carlton-chin/1209051-the-2012-world-series-analysis-of-sports-psychology-factors

The 2012 Stanley Cup Finals (NY Times)

 New Jersey goalie Martin Brodeur will be going for his fourth Stanley Cup Championship versus the Los Angeles Kings. 


Our analysis was picked up by the New York Times.  Here's an excerpt:

Over the past 32 years, the team with a better goals-against average has won 18 Stanley Cups (56.3 percent). But since the high-scoring period of the mid-80’s to the mid-90’s ended – the team with the better goals-against average has been even more dominant: 4-1 over the last five years, 7-3 over the last 10, and 12-6 over the last 18 years.

....




Read more here:


http://slapshot.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/30/keeping-score-looking-at-history-to-predict-a-champion/

Note: For purposes of this blog, there is no definitive "quant fact" prediction for this year's Stanley Cup Finals.

Quant Fact Predictions now 24-13

We're still licking our wounds from the NHL & NBA Finals -- but it goes to show you that the statistics won't be correct all of the time -- but they DO put the "wind at your back."

• Vancouver was beaten by a red-hot goalie who was definitely "in the zone" as well as hard-nosed, great playoff hockey by the Bruins.
• Miami was defeated by unbelievable teamwork, a quiet leader and star named Dirk Nowitzki -- and huge veteran play by Jason Kidd.  
• Congrats to both champions, the NBA's Dallas Mavericks & the NHL's Boston Bruins.

Our book's blog's record in "quant fact predictions" now stands at 24-13 (64.9%), still a solid record that is based on quantifying concepts of sports psychology.  The statistics add several interesting angles to sports analytics -- and regularly picks underdogs.