Quant Facts now 36-23 (61.0%)

Thank you to those who commented how close our Monte Carlo simulations were to the final BCS score.  Our sports psychology factors predicted a very close game -- and selected the underdog, Auburn, in a 35-34 victory.  Florida State, a heavy favorite (about -9 points), stormed back from a 21-3 deficit (and even a 31-27 deficit with one minute remaining in the game) to take the BCS 34-31.

This drops our official quant fact record to 36-23, although the result was definitely more than a moral victory.  Our research shows the importance of factors related to sports psychology.  Our work highlights factors that are under-weighted by sports analysts and sports fans.  Stay-tuned for several upcoming Super Bowl pieces.

2014 BCS: Auburn vs. Florida State

Based on research with my colleague, Dr. Jay Granat - a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com - we have analyzed factors related to sports psychology.  Our series of articles is based on several decades worth of championship results (depending on the sport).  Our work has predicted the winner of major sports championships at a 62% rate (sometimes picking underdogs) -- and is regularly featured in the New York Times.   

Here is our analysis for the 2014 BCS game between Auburn and Florida State.  

Defense

Our research shows that defense is more closely related to winning championships than a high-octane offense.  In college football, the team with the better defense in terms of points scored has won 53.3% of championship games since the B.C.S. began fifteen years ago.  Another key statistic has the team with the better defense – as measured by average yards yielded per rush – winning 71.4% of the games over the past 14 years (since the statistic is widely available).

In defensive points against, Florida State (10.7 points against / game) is ranked better than Auburn (24.0).  Florida State also performed better than Auburn in defensive yards per rush.  Florida State held opponents to 3.1 yards / rush versus Auburn’s 4.6 yards / rush.  Edge: Florida State. 

Consistency

Consistency is an important factor in winning championships across all sports.  In both professional football and college football, average yards per rush is a good indicator of consistency and control of the game.  The team with the better rushing statistic has won 57.1% of the championship games over the past 14 years.  Auburn has run for 6.5 yards per rush, versus Florida State’s 5.7 yards per rush.  Edge: Auburn.

Minimizing Errors

Minimizing mistakes is also crucial to winning the big game.  Statistics show that teams which execute better during the regular season also perform well in championships.  In both college and professional football, the team with fewer interceptions during the regular season has won a large majority of title games.

Over the past 15 years of college football, the team with fewer interceptions has won 60% of national championship games.  Auburn threw 7 interceptions this year, while Florida State threw 13.  Although Florida State passes much more than Auburn, Auburn’s interception rate is also better than Florida State. Edge: Auburn.

Big Game Experience & Coaching Leadership

Big game experience and coaching has a positive relationship with winning championships across all major U.S. sports.  On average, these factors work out to about a 60% success rate in sports we studied.  However, the experience factor, as measured by finals appearances over the past three years, posts just a 4-6 (40%) record since the B.C.S. began.  Auburn won the B.C.S. Championship in 2010.  Florida State has not made a championship final game over the past three years.  Big game experience: Auburn.

Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher has a 3-0 record in major bowls, all with Florida State over the past three years.  On the other hand, this is the first major bowl for Auburn coach Gus Malzahn. Coaching edge: Florida State.

Strength of Schedule

Some sports fans will point out differences in strength of schedule, or S.O.S.  For example, Auburn played Alabama (ranked #1 at the time of the game), Missouri (#5), and a total of six teams ranked in the top 25 in compiling a 12-1 record.  Florida State played Clemson (#3 at the time of the game) and four ranked teams during their 13-0 season. 

Over the past 15 years, the team with the better strength of schedule, as measured by SportsReference.com, has won 53.3% of championships.  It is noteworthy that when the difference in S.O.S. has been greater than 3.0 during this 15 year period, the team with the tougher schedule has gone 4-0 in the championship.  This year’s game features the widest S.O.S. spread since the B.C.S. began.  Auburn has a S.O.S. of 6.62 versus Florida State’s -0.06. 

Summary and Football Simulator

Our championship factors related to concepts of sports psychology, favor Auburn 3-2.  In addition, we model football games based on certain random variables, statistics, and our championship factors.  Our football simulator is a probabilistic Monte Carlo model, based on statistics from the regular season. 

Based on our simulator, the final score that comes up most frequently is: Auburn 35 – Florida State 34. 

Carlton Chin, a portfolio strategist and fund manager, and Jay Granat, psychotherapist, are authors of “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method.”  They have previously written about the N.C.A.A. men’s basketball tournament, the Super Bowl, and last year’s B.C.S.

Quant Facts now 30-19 (1/18/13)

With Alabama's victory over Notre Dame in this year's college football's national championship (BCS) game, our quant fact predictions improve to 30-19 (61.2%).  Math, statistics, and probabilities can be powerful tools in knowledge discovery -- and researching methods to optimize the chances of victory and winning championships.

Stay tuned for our upcoming analysis of the Super Bowl.  


Carlton Chin, CFA, is a quantitative researcher and portfolio strategist for Price Asset Management  and Adamah Capital, a hedge fund specializing in alternative assets & Computer Aided Research & Trading (CARAT).  Jay Granat, PhD is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com.  

Jay and Carlton are particularly interested in certain factors that can be coached and practiced.  Their research has shown that these traits can help sports organizations improve performance -- and win championships.  

College Football's 2013 BCS: Alabama vs. Notre Dame

Here is an excerpt from our "Who Will Win?" analysis on the BCS game between Alabama and Notre Dame, that was published by the NY Times.  


We typically apply a quantitative analysis of sports psychology concepts to predict the winner of various sports championships.  In this article, we took this a step further and used quant investment techniques (including probabilistic Monte Carlo methods) to develop a football simulator to take a look at the big game between Alabama and Notre Dame in this year's college football national championship BCS game.

Here is an excerpt from the article in the NY Times.

... our work relates key statistics to sports psychology concepts like leadership, consistency and minimizing errors. We have also developed a football simulator based on a probabilistic Monte Carlo model to use in conjunction with our championship factors. 

Simulation: We developed a football simulator that plays out thousands of games relatively quickly. The simulator is a probabilistic Monte Carlo model that uses statistics and results from the regular season.

... football games can be modeled based on certain random variables, statistics and our championship factors. The final score that came up most frequently on our simulator was Alabama 27, Notre Dame 14. As expected, we got a cloud of widely varying results, but this is the center of the model's probability distribution.

Edge: Alabama

Read more here:

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/07/keeping-score-characteristics-of-a-champion/#more-44985

Carlton J. Chin, a portfolio strategist and fund manager, and Jay P. Granat, psychotherapist, are authors of "Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method." They have previously written about the N.C.A.A. men's basketball tournament, the N.B.A. finals and the Super Bowl.

Quant Facts now 26-15

Our "quant fact" predictions, related to our book's research, are now 26-15.  Stay tuned for more quant fact predictions as the NFL playoffs heat up.

Thanks to Alabama's air-tight defense in the 2012 BCS Championship, our "Who Will Win the Big Game?" blog  predictions improved to 26-15. Our championship factors relating to sports psychology picked Alabama because of their edge in defense, recent big game experience, coaching, and rushing game.

Who Will Win the 2012 BCS Championship?

Carlton Chin, CFA and Jay Granat, PhD, are authors of the book, "Who Will Win the Big Game?"  where concepts of sports psychology are quantified.  Here, we use this research to take a look at the 2012 BCS Championship Game between #1 LSU and #2 Alabama.  Our analysis on other sporting events has been featured in the NY Times and The Wall Street Journal.  Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayIntheZone.com.  Carlton Chin is an MIT-trained quantitative and alternative assets portfolio manager for CARAT/Adamah Capital.  

In particular, our research shows that certain key concepts of sports psychology can be used to build winning teams. Measuring factors - such as leadership, coaching, hard work, minimizing errors, and consistency - has proven to be useful in determining champions and winners. Let's take a look at the "quant facts" for this year's BCS Championship Game.

Hard Work & Defense

Interestingly, across a variety of sports, factors and statistics related to hard work and consistency are more closely related to winning championships than glitzy statistics such as quarterback rating and homeruns. In particular, our work shows that defense does indeed win championships.

Alabama gets the nod in this category, with its top-ranked defense in terms of both points against and yards per game.  It is notable that LSU is #2 -- but a distant #2, yielding 252 yards per game vs. Alabama's 191 yards/game.  

Consistency Factor: Rushing Yards per Attempt

Another key to winning championships is consistency. It is interesting that the type of "consistency factors" that have proven to be related to winning are "less exciting heroics" than most sports fans would expect. For example, in baseball, our research shows that batting average is more important to winning World Series than home runs.

In football, average yards per rush is a good indicator of consistency and control of the game. Alabama edges LSU in this category (5.6 yards per rush to 5.0 for LSU).  Edge to Alabama for the consistency factor.

Minimizing Errors

Performing at a high level - while minimizing mistakes - is crucial to winning the big game. The numbers show that teams that focus on the fundamentals - and athletes who minimize errors - perform better in championships. In football, the team that throws fewer interceptions has won more than their share of championships.  This edge goes to LSU, whose QBs threw just 4 INTs versus Alabama's 8.  

Big Game Experience & Coaching

Statistics show that experience and coaching can yield a measurable difference in the outcome of championships.  Alabama has appeared in a National Title game over the past three years (LSU's most recent appearance was for the 2007 regular season).  Both coaches have done well in games with national title implications, with Alabama's Nick Saban going 2-0 in these games, and LSU's Les Miles going 1-0.  We'll give the edge to Alabama in this category.

Sports Psychology Factors and the BCS Championship

So who will win this year's college football championship? Based on our "quant facts" of the key concepts of sports psychology, we believe that Alabama will even the score against LSU (LSU beat Alabama 9-6 earlier in the season) -- and come away with the title.