Who Will Win the Big Game?: quant facts

Showing posts with label quant facts. Show all posts

Sunday, January 22, 2023

Quant Fact Predictions Update: Now 63.5%

Overview:

Quant Fact Prediction Update (now 66-38, or 63.5%).
And a look at analysis, probabilities & models.

Many occurrences in nature, science, and business can be described by the bell curve or standard normal distribution. The chart below (from one of my papers) shows quarterly stock market returns graphed — and how the graph looks like a bell curve. However, upon closer inspection, you can see that things are not quite what they seem.

The edge of the curve is wider, or fatter, than the bell curve. That is, investment returns actually exhibit more occurrences at the tails than the bell curve would predict. The bottom half of the chart zooms in on the tail of stock market graph. This behavior is referred to as fat-tails and reflects the fact that we get larger moves to the downside (crashes) and upside than expected by statistical models.

Sunday, January 8, 2023

2023 College Football: National Championship

College football’s championship game features the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs against the TCU Horned Frogs (Texas Christian University). What do our championship factors say about this year’s title game?

Thursday, October 27, 2022

Who Will Win the 2022 World Series?

Who will win the 2022 World Series between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies? More than ten years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

Sunday, February 6, 2022

Who Will Win the Big Game? LAR vs. Cin in 2022 Super Bowl

The Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams kick-off Super Bowl LVI in about one week. About a decade ago, a colleague and I performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL.

Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

The research launched a series of articles that has been published by the Wall Street Journal and New York Times — and has picked the correct winner of major sporting events about 65% of the time.

Saturday, December 18, 2021

Quant Fact Predictions (Now 65%)

With the year winding down, it's a good time to take stock and see how we have been doing.

It's been a while since we updated the record of our Quant Fact predictions.
We are currently at 62-33 (65.3%).

Note that we will have a prediction for the College Football Championship -- as well as the Super Bowl.

Happy Holidays!

- Carlton & Jay

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer focused on portfolio strategy and data-driven models. Carlton has been a professor at a local university and worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings. He has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America’s Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. He is the owner of StayInTheZone.com and has authored several books on sport psychology — appearing on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.

Saturday, April 3, 2021

"Who Will Win" Article for 2021 March Madness

This year’s March Madness action has busted more than a few brackets. Now that the NCAA Tournament is down to the Final Four, can our quant fact numbers make sense of the remainder of the men’s college basketball season?

Since that time, our published results have predicted the winner of major sporting events about 65% of the time, sometimes picking underdogs. Our predictions have been particularly successful for the Final Four.

Sunday, February 7, 2021

Super Bowl Articles

Probabilities of Square Pool Numbers:

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/2021-super-bowl-square-pool-odds-by-quarter-fd87c5cbccf0

"Who Will Win" article

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/who-will-win-the-big-game-super-bowl-lv-2021-d18beae17043

Enjoy the Big Game!

Monday, October 19, 2020

Who Will Win the 2020 World Series? Dodgers-Rays

Even after a Covid-19 shortened season and an extra round of playoffs, Major League Baseball’s top two teams will meet in the 2020 MLB World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays, the teams with the best records in their respective leagues, start the World Series on Tuesday, October 20, 2020. What do our “championship factors” have to say about the World Series?

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment manager and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN. Carlton’s class at Rowan University contributed reporting.

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

The 2020 NBA Finals: LA Lakers or Miami Heat?

The Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat tip-off this week for the 2020 NBA Finals. What do our “championship factors” have to say about the Finals?

Carlton Chin, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer (CIO) and Head of Research at CARAT Capital and an RIA (CPA) and has served as head of investments and research (as well as portfolio manager) for Goldman Sachs, Commodities Corp., Mt. Lucas, and Price Asset/Adamah. Carlton is a specialist in portfolio construction, alternative assets, quant research, and downside risk management. He has been quoted by the Wall St. Journal, NY Times, and Financial Trader -- and holds both SM and SB degrees from MIT.

Saturday, September 19, 2020

Who Will Win the 2020 Stanley Cup Final?

Our regular series of “Who Will Win” quant facts predictions has been correct almost 65% of the time — regularly picking underdogs! The results are based on championships going back several decades — and across major sports including the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and professional tennis and golf.
What do our championship factors say about this year’s NHL Stanley Cup Finals between the Tampa Bay Lighting and Dallas Stars?

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and quant researcher focused on portfolio strategy and sports analytics. A professor at Rowan University, Carlton has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN. Carlton’s class at Rowan contributed reporting.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America’s Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. He has authored several books on sport psychology — and has appeared on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Who Will Win the 2019 World Series?

The Washington Nationals and Houston Astros meet in the 2019 MLB World Series, with some of the best pitching match-ups we have seen in recent baseball history. What do our “championship factors” have to say about the World Series?

While many sports fans are looking forward to pitching match-ups, it is interesting to note that both teams are good at keeping rallies going.

Read more here:
https://sportsquants.kinja.com/2019-world-series-who-will-win-the-big-game-1839270519

Other popular articles:

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment manager and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.

Thursday, June 6, 2019

Quant Fact Update (56-29=65.9%) and More

Please keep an eye on our column at Kinja for updated articles. We recently updated our Quant Fact record, and also published an NBA article:

Our record on published sports predictions now stands at 65.9%, pending results on the NBA and NHL finals.
We also wrote about Quant Analysis and the financial markets / investments.
Read more here:

https://sportsquants.kinja.com/quantitative-analysis-quant-facts-and-more-1835300590

If you haven't yet seen it, here's our NBA article:

https://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-wins-the-2019-nba-finals-golden-state-or-toronto-1835133123

Monday, May 27, 2019

Predicting the 2019 Stanley Cup Finals

What do our championship factors say about this year’s NHL Stanley Cup Finals between the St. Louis Blues and Boston Bruins?

Big Game Experience

Big game experience and the related factor of confidence play a large role in winning....

Please read our article on this year's NHL Finals here:
https://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-will-win-the-2019-stanley-cup-finals-1835050417

We'll have an article on the NBA Finals in a few days.

Monday, April 8, 2019

Who Will Win the NCAA Men's Hoops Title?

We quantify concepts of sports psychology such as consistency, leadership, confidence, experience, and hard work. These are areas where coaches and sports organizations can make an actionable impact — as they build team chemistry and champions.

What do the quant facts say as Virginia and Texas Tech get set to tip-off in the March Madness title game? For background, here’s our Final Four article and predictions:

Big Game Experience

Neither team has played in the Final Four over the past few years, so there us is big game experience edge. Edge: None.

Read more here:

https://sportsquants.kinja.com/2019-march-madness-who-will-win-the-national-title-1833880971

Friday, April 5, 2019

Final Four 2019: Who Gets to the Title Game?

Over the past decade, we have published quant fact predictions based on our research “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological & Mathematical Approach.” Our published results have been correct about 65% of the time, often picking underdogs.

Our work has been particularly successful for college basketball and the Final Four (and we have been published in the New York Times and Wall St. Journal).

Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Quant Facts Update (54-28 = 65.9%)

It's been a while since we updated the official record for our Quant Fact predictions. With successful picks in the 2019 Super Bowl, as well as the second half of 2018, our record has improved to 54-28 -- for a winning percentage of 65.9%.

We study sports analytics and sports psychology and focus on factors such as the fundamentals, execution, and leadership. These are concepts that athletes and sports organizations can "key in" on as they put together a team. Our quant fact predictions sometimes differ from the general consensus -- and our record is a testament to the unique and strong combination of quant analytics and sports psychology.

We will be publishing our Quant Fact predictions for the Final Four as March Madness comes to an end this weekend. We have historically done well with college basketball. Please check our blog (as well as our Sports Quant kinja page: https://sportsquants.kinja.com/

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is a fund manager and quant researcher focused on portfolio strategy and sports analytics. An adjunct Professor at Rowan University, Carlton has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings— and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America’s Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. A former university professor, he has authored several books on sport psychology — and has appeared on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.