Who Will Win the 2020 Stanley Cup Final?

 

Our regular series of “Who Will Win” quant facts predictions has been correct almost 65% of the time — regularly picking underdogs! The results are based on championships going back several decades — and across major sports including the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and professional tennis and golf.

What do our championship factors say about this year’s NHL Stanley Cup Finals between the Tampa Bay Lighting and Dallas Stars?

Read more here: 

https://medium.com/@carltonjchin/who-will-win-the-2020-stanley-cup-117bac3ad2c8 

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and quant researcher focused on portfolio strategy and sports analytics. A professor at Rowan University, Carlton has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN. Carlton’s class at Rowan contributed reporting.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America’s Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. He has authored several books on sport psychology — and has appeared on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.

Predicting the 2019 Stanley Cup Finals

What do our championship factors say about this year’s NHL Stanley Cup Finals between the St. Louis Blues and Boston Bruins?

Big Game Experience

Big game experience and the related factor of confidence play a large role in winning....

Please read our article on this year's NHL Finals here:
https://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-will-win-the-2019-stanley-cup-finals-1835050417

We'll have an article on the NBA Finals in a few days.

2014 Stanley Cup: Who Will Win?

Here's an excerpt from our analysis on this year's Stanley Cup.

Together with Dr. Jay Granat, a psychotherapist, I quantified factors related to concepts of sports psychology. Our “quant facts” have successfully predicted the winner of this year’s Super Bowl and the NCAA tournament’s Final Four.  In total, our predictions have been 63.5 percent correct in major championships — while sometimes going against the grain and picking underdogs.

Our research has shown that big-game experience is related with winning the big game. Over the past 34 years, teams that appeared in the Stanley Cup Finals over the previous three years have compiled an 85 percent winning percentage in Finals. The Kings have the edge in this department, winning the Stanley Cup just two years ago. Edge: Kings.

Read more at:
http://www.rantsports.com/nhl/2014/06/04/2014-stanley-cup-finals-numbers-predict-who-will-win/#mQlmKXKo3Kfg0iCA.99

2013 Stanley Cup Finals (NY Times)

Here's an excerpt from our analysis in the New York Times.  

 Based on this research, we focused on several championship characteristics that might predict the winner of this year’s Stanley Cup finals.  We also applied a Monte Carlo simulation to compute series probabilities for the finals.

In particular, we focused on factors related to sports psychology like big game experience, leadership and consistency. These concepts have proven to be common themes across all sports we have studied.

Big Game Experience: Across all sports, we have found a meaningful relationship between big game experience and winning championships.  In our work, big game experience is measured by appearances in finals over the past three years. In the N.H.L., the team with an edge in this area has gone 11-2 (84.6 percent) in Stanley Cup finals series over the past 33 years.  Both the Blackhawks and Bruins have made finals appearances over the past three years. Edge: Even

Read the complete article here:
http://slapshot.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/12/keeping-score-which-statistics-show-path-to-the-cup/ 

The 2012 Stanley Cup Finals (NY Times)

 New Jersey goalie Martin Brodeur will be going for his fourth Stanley Cup Championship versus the Los Angeles Kings. 


Our analysis was picked up by the New York Times.  Here's an excerpt:

Over the past 32 years, the team with a better goals-against average has won 18 Stanley Cups (56.3 percent). But since the high-scoring period of the mid-80’s to the mid-90’s ended – the team with the better goals-against average has been even more dominant: 4-1 over the last five years, 7-3 over the last 10, and 12-6 over the last 18 years.

....




Read more here:


http://slapshot.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/30/keeping-score-looking-at-history-to-predict-a-champion/

Note: For purposes of this blog, there is no definitive "quant fact" prediction for this year's Stanley Cup Finals.

NY Times: Which Team has the Right Stuff to Win the Cup?

Below is an excerpt on our analysis on the NHL Stanley Cup Finals:

Focusing on concepts of sports psychology, we looked at factors such as big-game experience, leadership on the ice and consistency. So important are these concepts to winning championships that they have proven to be common themes across all sports we have studied.

...

During the period of high-powered N.H.L. scoring from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s, offensive leaders were more easily able to carry their teams to championships as Wayne Gretzky did with the Edmonton Oilers and Mario Lemieux did with the Pittsburgh Penguins.

...

Over all, championship factors like offensive leadership and defense favor the Vancouver Canucks to win the Stanley Cup. But Thomas may have something to say about that.

Read more here:

http://slapshot.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/30/keeping-score-which-team-has-the-right-stuff-to-win-the-cup/

Stanley Cup Finals - Flyers vs. Black Hawks

Excerpts from some of our research were picked up by SportsInsights.com

http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsbettingarticles/stanley-cup-finals-2010.aspx

The Chicago Black Hawks and Philadelphia Flyers are set to face off in the Finals of the NHL Stanley Cup. What do the sports marketplace indicators say? And are there other indicators or factors we can consider? We looked into some of the key championship factors researched in the book: "Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method."

...

Leadership and This Year's Finalists
Over the past 30 years, the team with the better offensive star, measured by points scored, has gone 19-11 (63.3%) in Stanley Cup Finals. This factor favors the Black Hawks, and Patrick Kane (88 points) over the Flyers and Mike Richards (62 points).
We note, however, that generally, during hard-checking and physical playoff hockey, defense and goalies who are “in the zone” are major determinants of the eventual champions. The exception to the rule is when you have a standout offensive leader like Wayne Gretzky. “The Great One” ushered in a period of high-powered NHL scoring from the mid-80’s to the mid-90’s. During this time, offensive leaders were more easily able to “lead’ and “will” their way to championships. Gretzky led his Edmonton Oilers to several Stanley Cups, and then Mario Lemieux did the same for his Pittsburgh Penguins.
In less “high-powered” offensive times, defense and a good goalie have been key to winning the Stanley Cup. Over the past 30 years, teams with the better goalie save percentage have gone 18-11 (62.2%). Over recent years, since the high-scoring period of the mid-80’s to the mid-90’s, teams with the better save percentage have gone:

• 3-0 over the last 4 years (teams had the same save percentage one year),
• 6-1 over the last 8 years,
• and 13-4 over the last 18 years!

NHL Stanley Cup Finals

Although the Chicago Black Hawks are almost 2.5-1 favorites, our factors show that the Flyers might make more noise than expected. More info coming soon...

Also -- please visit our blog for information on the NBA Finals once the finalists are determined.