Who Will Win the 2021 World Series?

This article is about the World Series and includes information on Skill vs. Luck.   

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Sports Psychology Quant Facts

The 2021 World Series is almost ready to start. What do the sports psychology quant facts say? Across all sports studied, it is interesting that less-glitzy statistics and factors are what wins championships. This may be true because of the higher level of competition. For instance, in football, the Super Bowl winner is more likely to be the quarterback who has thrown fewer interceptions during the regular season than the flashier quarterback with a higher QB rating and 40 TDs.

Similarly, in baseball, while home runs win regular season games, batting average is a better indicator of consistency and the ability to put together a rally against better pitching. That is, batting average is a better predictor of the World Series champion than home runs.

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Read more here: 

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/2021-world-series-who-will-win-skill-vs-luck-d3719979eaf6

Please note that we post more regularly on Medium, please follow us there: 

Will anyone bat .400 during the 2020 MLB Season?

With so much craziness going on in the world, the MLB season may offer a welcome respite to sports fans...

Please read more here:
https://medium.com/@carltonjchin/will-the-2020-mlb-season-see-400-ac0323dd2b59



Carlton Chin holds both undergraduate and graduate degrees from MIT; he is a fund manager and quant researcher focused on portfolio strategy, business intelligence, and sports analytics. A professor at Rowan University and proponent of education, Carlton serves as Regional Chair of MIT’s Educational Council, serves on several non-profit educational boards, and was elected to his town’s Board of Education.

Who Will Win the 2019 World Series?

The Washington Nationals and Houston Astros meet in the 2019 MLB World Series, with some of the best pitching match-ups we have seen in recent baseball history. What do our “championship factors” have to say about the World Series?

While many sports fans are looking forward to pitching match-ups, it is interesting to note that both teams are good at keeping rallies going. 

Read more here: 
https://sportsquants.kinja.com/2019-world-series-who-will-win-the-big-game-1839270519



Other popular articles:

Who Wins the 2019 NBA Finals: Golden State or Toronto?

The Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors tip-off this evening in the 2019 NBA Finals. What do…

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Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment manager and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN. 

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN. 

Quant Facts Update (54-28 = 65.9%)

It's been a while since we updated the official record for our Quant Fact predictions.  With successful picks in the 2019 Super Bowl, as well as the second half of 2018, our record has improved to 54-28 -- for a winning percentage of 65.9%.  

We study sports analytics and sports psychology and focus on factors such as the fundamentals, execution, and leadership.  These are concepts that athletes and sports organizations can "key in" on as they put together a team.  Our quant fact predictions sometimes differ from the general consensus -- and our record is a testament to the unique and strong combination of quant analytics and sports psychology.  

We will be publishing our Quant Fact predictions for the Final Four as March Madness comes to an end this weekend.  We have historically done well with college basketball.  Please check our blog (as well as our Sports Quant kinja page:  https://sportsquants.kinja.com/

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is a fund manager and quant researcher focused on portfolio strategy and sports analytics. An adjunct Professor at Rowan University, Carlton has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings— and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America’s Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. A former university professor, he has authored several books on sport psychology — and has appeared on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.

   

2018 MLB World Series: East Meets West

Several years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

Since our book came out, our published “quant fact predictions” have been correct about 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs to win championships. What do the numbers say about the 2018 World Series? 

Read more here:

https://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-will-win-the-2018-world-series-east-meets-west-1829925471

We'll update our record after the World Series.

Quant Facts 48-28 (63.2%)

After the World Series loss by the Los Angeles Dodgers, our quant fact predictions dropped to 48-28, or 63.2%.  We will be posting a quant fact prediction for the College Football National Title shortly. 

Thank you for reading! 

Who Will Win the 2017 World Series?

The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers have advanced to the 2017 MLB World Series. What do our “quant facts” have to say about the World Series? Before the MLB playoffs started, we used our championship factors to rank the playoff teams.

Source: MLB.

If you used the power rankings in the article to predict the winner of each playoff series, you would have gone 4-2 (correct in 4 series, wrong in 2). Since our book came out almost a decade ago, our published “quant fact predictions” have been correct about 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs to win championships.

Read more here: 
http://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-will-win-the-2017-world-series-1819765684

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is a fund manager and quant researcher focused on portfolio strategy and sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN. 

2017 MLB Playoff Preview

Here's an excerpt from our latest article -- on the 2017 MLB Playoffs:

Historically, we publish articles for the finals of major sporting events such as the Super Bowl or World Series. Here, we use our research to rank the 2017 MLB playoff contenders.

Our readers will recall that our quant facts are based on factors related to sports psychology. In particular, we study championship factors such as consistency, leadership, confidence, and big game experience. In almost a decade of published articles, our book’s research has correctly predicted the winner of major sporting events almost two-thirds of the time, sometimes picking underdogs.

Read more here.

Or here:

http://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-will-win-the-big-game-a-2017-mlb-playoff-preview-1819141384

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is a quant researcher focused on portfolio strategy and sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings on their Analytics Advisory Council — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN. Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of www.stayinthezone.com.  

Carlton’s students at a local university contributed to this article.

Quant Facts 48-27 (64.0%)

With last year's correct Super Bowl prediction -- thanks to the crazy New England Patriot comeback, our quant fact predictions improved to 48-27 -- or 64.0%.  The timing of certain other major sports (March Madness and the NBA/NHL) -- and a busy spring -- kept us from publishing other articles, but we are back with MLB info.

More soon.  Thanks for reading.

Quant Facts 47-27 (63.5%)

We had a rare "no prediction" for the 2016 MLB World Series -- so our quant fact predictions remain at 47-27 or 63.5%.  Some readers said that we had things "right on" -- because we rated the World Series closer than most people had it.

We just completed our analysis of the 2017 Super Bowl -- and will publish the results shortly.

Carlton Chin, CFA, is a fund manager and quantitative researcher focused on the financial markets and sports analytics. He has been quoted by the New York Times and Wall St. Journal and has worked on sports analytics with sports organizations, including the NBA's Sacramento Kings. 

Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayIntheZone.com.

Who Will Win the 2016 World Series?

Will the heavily favored Chicago Cubs bring Cubs fans their first World Series in over 100 years?  (1908 was their last championship!)  Or will the pesky Cleveland Indianscontinue their surprising run through the playoffs?  Our "Who Will Win" series of sports prediction articles has been highlighted in the New York Times and is based on historical data that goes back over several decades across several major sports.  

Read more here:
http://quantfacts.sportsblog.com/posts/28169816/who-will-win-the-2016-world-series-can-the-cubs--curse-be-broken-.html

Quant Facts Update (45-27 = 62.5%) + Super Bowl Articles

We correctly predicted the winner of the 2015 MLB World Series, increasing our published "quant fact" results to 45-27, or 62.5%.  It is noteworthy that these results are not versus a point spread (against the spread) -- but based on straight winners.  However, we regularly predict that underdogs win championships.

Our 2016 NFL Super Bowl articles have been published.  Please check them out:

• Who Will Win the 2016 Super Bowl?  The results may surprise you!  
• Popular Super Bowl Square Pool Odds article: what are your chances of winning your office's square pool?  We compute the odds of winning by the quarter.  

Carlton Chin, CFA, is a fund manager and quantitative researcher focused on the financial markets and sports analytics. He has been quoted by the New York Times and Wall St. Journal and has worked on sports analytics with sports organizations. 

Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayIntheZone.com.

2015 World Series: Who Will Win?

Our quant fact predictions have correctly predicted the winner of major sporting events over 60% of the time, regularly picking underdogs and focusing on several angles that may be overlooked.  Here, we look at the 2015 World Series between the New York Mets and the Kansas City Royals.  

In a short series, anything can happen, but leadership at the top of your team's pitching staff is a great indication of baseball success in the playoffs.  This edge goes to the Mets with their young guns on the mound.  Edge: Mets.

The importance of consistency cannot be overlooked in sports. Teams and athletes get into a certain rhythm and execute successfully.  In baseball, we found that team batting average, as measured by league rank, is a great indicator of success in the World Series.  Interestingly, batting average is a much greater predictor of success than home run power.  The Royals were one of the top-rated teams in the American League in terms of batting average, while the Mets were below average.  Edge: Royals. 

Read more here:

http://quantfacts.sportsblog.com/posts/6160404/who-will-win-the-2015-world-series-.html

Carlton Chin, CFA, is a fund manager, MIT-trained quantitative analyst, and co-author of “Who Will Win the Big Game?" He has been quoted by the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, and ESPN-- and worked with the Sacramento Kings on the NBA Draft.  Dr. Jay Granat is the owner of StayInTheZone.com and has been named one of America's top mental gurus by Golf Digest.  

2015 MLB Playoff Preview: "Who Will Win" Style

The Major League Baseball Wild Card games are over and we have eight teams still standing.  The St. Louis Cardinals have the best record (100-62) in baseball this year while the Toronto Blue Jays achieved the largest run differential (221 = runs scored minus runs against).  But will they win the World Series?  Here, we look at some interesting stats and indicators that have proven to be good predictors in the past.  Some of these metrics are related to concepts of sports psychology, such as a focus on fundamentals, leadership, consistency, and minimizing errors.   

Read more here:
http://quantfacts.sportsblog.com/posts/5104894/and-then-there-were-eight--ranking-the-mlb-elite-eight.html

Congrats to Red Sox; Quant Facts now 36-22 (62.1%)

Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox, who have now won three World Series in the past ten years!   Although our quant facts article in the New York Times gave the edge to the underdog St. Louis Cardinals, several people (including co-author Jay Granat) pointed out the emotional high and mental toughness related to "Boston Strong."  That factor is hard to measure, but certainly helped with the Red Sox drive to the championship.

I (Carlton) was torn with my loyalties in this World Series, because our article pointed to the Cardinals, but my heart was with the Red Sox, having been up in Boston (well, in Cambridge) during my college years.  At least in spirit, I was with my friends up in New England, at "Little Fenway."  :)

Red Sox fans might like some of these pictures and the party at Little Fenway.

http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/20131030/NEWS02/310300022/Chills-thrills-Little-Fenway?gcheck=1

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Congrats also to the St. Louis Cardinals, who had a great season; the Cards have won two World Series in the past ten years.

Our quant fact predictions now stand at 36-22, or 62.1% -- using sports psychology factors that are often overlooked by sports analysts.  This is a decent result, because we sometimes go against the grain and pick underdogs (like this year's World Series).


Carlton Chin, CFA, enjoys applying quantitative techniques to study everything from sports analytics to the financial markets and asset allocation.  His work has been used by sports organizations, institutional investors and college universities.  Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com.  Dr. Granat works with athletes of all levels, from high school athletes up to Olympic gold medalists, and has been named one of America's Top 10 Mental Gurus.  

Who Will Win the 2013 World Series

Here is our analysis for this year's World Series, published in the New York Times.  

 In particular, our work relates key statistical factors to concepts of sports psychology like leadership, consistency and minimizing errors. Based on this research, we focused on factors that might help predict the winner of the World Series between the Boston Red Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals, which begins Wednesday night.


Carlton J. Chin, a portfolio strategist and fund manager, and Jay P. Granat, psychotherapist, are authors of “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method.” They have previously written about the N.C.A.A. men’s basketball tournament, the N.B.A. finals and theN.H.L. Stanley Cup finals.



The sports psychology factors point to the St. Louis Cardinals, even though the Boston Red Sox are a slight favorite.  The Cardinals will count in our official "quant fact" predictions.  

Read more here: 
http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/23/keeping-score-statistics-to-watch-at-the-world-series/

2012 World Series: Leadership and Consistency

Here's an excerpt from our analysis of the 2012 World Series.

Pitching Leadership

Leadership on the playing field has proven to be statistically significant in its relationship to winning the big game across all sports we have studied. In baseball, top starting pitchers are a key leadership factor - and are a good indicator of success during baseball's short playoff series. The finalist with the better top of the rotation, measured by total wins by its top two pitchers, has won 67 percent of the World Series over the past 22 World Series (over 23 years because there was no postseason in 1994). This factor goes to the Detroit Tigers, whose top two starting pitchers, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, edge San Francisco's top starters, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner (33 combined wins to 32).

In total, our analysis points to the Detroit Tigers.  

Read more here:

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/677712-carlton-chin/1209051-the-2012-world-series-analysis-of-sports-psychology-factors

Sports Psychology: Being a Mentally Tough Pitcher

With the MLB playoffs getting set to start, many analysts focus on the playoff contender's pitching staffs.  Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com -- and co-author of "Who Will Win the Big Game," recently helped with a study on how mental toughness develops in young pitchers.

Working with Anthony Cinelli of Boston University, Granat, interviewed college pitchers and learned that:

Many young baseball players are first introduced to this sport by their fathers. So, their dad is often their first coach. Therefore, fathers often play a crucial role in how an a pitcher develops physically and mentally.

Apparently, the young pitchers started to model some of the behaviors, attitudes and actions that were demonstrated by their fathers in the world of work. In short, they took what they observed their dad's doing in their lives and brought some of these attitudes and behaviors to the baseball field.Some of the pitchers interviewed also attributed the learning of mental toughness was function of watching their fathers behavior in their careers and in their businesses.

Others pitchers stated that fathers taught them valuable lessons about being accountable, taking responsibility and learning to accept good and bad performances.

Read more here:
http://ezinearticles.com/?Sports-Psychology-And-Baseball:-How-To-Be-A-Mentally-Tough-Pitcher&id=7310959



Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/7310959

Pujols: One of the Best (Performances & Batters)

Albert Pujols has been big news in the 2011 World Series.  AND -- we are glad that Game 3's performance will go down in baseball history as one of the great World Series' performances in baseball history.  Pujols went with 5-for-6 with 3 HRs.

Here's a quick recap of the highlights:

• Only player ever to compile 14 total bases in a World Series game.
• 6 RBIs tied a World Series single-game record (Bobby Richardson, 1960; Hideki Matsui 2009)
• 5 hits ties a record of 5 hits in a World Series game with Paul Molitor.
• 4 runs scored.
• 3 HRs (tying Babe Ruth & Reggie Jackson's single-game record).
• St. Louis goes up 2-1 in the World Series, winning 16-7.

Below is a great article putting Pujol's performance in perspective, relative to other great World Series single-game batting achievements. 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/15798683/youve-had-a-nice-run-babe-reggie-now-its-pujols-time

We are particularly excited about Albert Pujols gaining some recognition because in our book, "Baseball + Numbers = Fun & Games (Math & Ratings for Young Fans)" by Carlton Chin and Julia Chin (see below), my daughter and I rank Pujols amongst the all-time great baseball hitters.  Our book introduces baseball and math for young fans -- and includes several lists that may interest fans of all ages (all-time great baseball teams and batters).

We normalized statistics (including, for instance: league averages, peak years, era & level of competition), and ranked Albert Pujols as one of the best hitters in baseball history.  Our overall top 3 hitters:

1. Ted Williams
2. Albert Pujols
3. Babe Ruth

Who Will Win the 2011 World Series? (Analysis for the NY Times)

Here is some analysis we did on the World Series for the NY Times:

... Last year these factors correctly predicted that the San Francisco Giants would beat the Texas Rangers. So how do the Cardinals and Rangers fare in analyzing their championship characteristics?

Pitching Leadership

In baseball, top starting pitchers are a good indicator of success during baseball’s playoff series. In particular, the finalist with the better top of the rotation, measured by total wins by its top two pitchers, has won 70 percent of the World Series over the past 22 years (not including 1994, when there was no postseason).  

Read more here:
http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/19/which-world-series-team-has-winning-traits/#