Quant Facts now 26-15

Our "quant fact" predictions, related to our book's research, are now 26-15.  Stay tuned for more quant fact predictions as the NFL playoffs heat up.

Thanks to Alabama's air-tight defense in the 2012 BCS Championship, our "Who Will Win the Big Game?" blog  predictions improved to 26-15. Our championship factors relating to sports psychology picked Alabama because of their edge in defense, recent big game experience, coaching, and rushing game.

Who Will Win the 2012 BCS Championship?

Carlton Chin, CFA and Jay Granat, PhD, are authors of the book, "Who Will Win the Big Game?"  where concepts of sports psychology are quantified.  Here, we use this research to take a look at the 2012 BCS Championship Game between #1 LSU and #2 Alabama.  Our analysis on other sporting events has been featured in the NY Times and The Wall Street Journal.  Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayIntheZone.com.  Carlton Chin is an MIT-trained quantitative and alternative assets portfolio manager for CARAT/Adamah Capital.  

In particular, our research shows that certain key concepts of sports psychology can be used to build winning teams. Measuring factors - such as leadership, coaching, hard work, minimizing errors, and consistency - has proven to be useful in determining champions and winners. Let's take a look at the "quant facts" for this year's BCS Championship Game.

Hard Work & Defense

Interestingly, across a variety of sports, factors and statistics related to hard work and consistency are more closely related to winning championships than glitzy statistics such as quarterback rating and homeruns. In particular, our work shows that defense does indeed win championships.

Alabama gets the nod in this category, with its top-ranked defense in terms of both points against and yards per game.  It is notable that LSU is #2 -- but a distant #2, yielding 252 yards per game vs. Alabama's 191 yards/game.  

Consistency Factor: Rushing Yards per Attempt

Another key to winning championships is consistency. It is interesting that the type of "consistency factors" that have proven to be related to winning are "less exciting heroics" than most sports fans would expect. For example, in baseball, our research shows that batting average is more important to winning World Series than home runs.

In football, average yards per rush is a good indicator of consistency and control of the game. Alabama edges LSU in this category (5.6 yards per rush to 5.0 for LSU).  Edge to Alabama for the consistency factor.

Minimizing Errors

Performing at a high level - while minimizing mistakes - is crucial to winning the big game. The numbers show that teams that focus on the fundamentals - and athletes who minimize errors - perform better in championships. In football, the team that throws fewer interceptions has won more than their share of championships.  This edge goes to LSU, whose QBs threw just 4 INTs versus Alabama's 8.  

Big Game Experience & Coaching

Statistics show that experience and coaching can yield a measurable difference in the outcome of championships.  Alabama has appeared in a National Title game over the past three years (LSU's most recent appearance was for the 2007 regular season).  Both coaches have done well in games with national title implications, with Alabama's Nick Saban going 2-0 in these games, and LSU's Les Miles going 1-0.  We'll give the edge to Alabama in this category.

Sports Psychology Factors and the BCS Championship

So who will win this year's college football championship? Based on our "quant facts" of the key concepts of sports psychology, we believe that Alabama will even the score against LSU (LSU beat Alabama 9-6 earlier in the season) -- and come away with the title. 

NFL Conference Championships

As we prepare our analysis for the Super Bowl -- we took a look at what the quant facts say about the NFL Conference Championships. Our "research project" and book -- studies the results of championship finals in many of the major sports over the past 20-30 years. We have quantified key concepts of sports psychology, championship characteristics, and winning factors.

In the NFL Conference Championships, an early look at our championship factors points to Green Bay beating Chicago and Pittsburgh beating the Jets. In particular, we look at key concepts of sports psychology such as:

• consistency,
• defense, and
• minimizing errors.

We'll have more details about the factors we focus on -- in our Super Bowl analysis -- once the finalists are decided. Enjoy the games.

___

As we get ready for the Super Bowl, here is one of last year's popular articles we did for the NY Times (on Square Pools):

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/07/how-to-spot-a-winner-in-a-squares-pool/

Carlton Chin and Jay Granat are authors of, "Who Will Win the Big Game?" -- which takes a quantitative look at concepts of sports psychology. They have been quoted in the New York Times, Wall St. Journal, and CBS.

The Mental Error of Mental Errors -- BCS Championship

In last night's college football championship, Oregon committed the "mental error of all mental errors" by not finishing a tackle as time was winding down in a tie BCS championship game. Everyone stopped playing, and then Auburn's "almost-down" player realized that the whistle hadn't blown -- and scurried about 30 additional yards from midfield to within easy reach of a national title-winning field goal. These things happen, but it's too bad the title game had to come down to an odd play like this.

The 2011 BCS game featuring #1 Auburn and #2 Oregon was very exciting -- and had a fair amount of errors and mistakes (such as interceptions). Ultimately, execution and minimizing errors are some key indicators of success. Our "quant facts" of sports psychology factors focus on key execution factors (such as consistency), minimizing errors, and leadership & experience (which are correlated to confidence and execution). In combination, these factors have proven to be useful in predicting champions.

In addition -- although both teams are known for their high-powered offenses, the defenses once again showed that a good defense can slow down a good offense.

Oregon's loss drops our blog's record in "quant fact" predictions to 17-10. We try to quantify key concepts of sports psychology -- and the results have shown that these factors can be used to gain an edge in (and predicting) winning championships.