"Who Will Win" Article for 2021 March Madness

This year’s March Madness action has busted more than a few brackets. Now that the NCAA Tournament is down to the Final Four, can our quant fact numbers make sense of the remainder of the men’s college basketball season?

Since that time, our published results have predicted the winner of major sporting events about 65% of the time, sometimes picking underdogs. Our predictions have been particularly successful for the Final Four. 

Read more here: 

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/can-numbers-make-sense-of-2021s-march-madness-9652180d43b5 

Who Will Win the NCAA Men's Hoops Title?

We quantify concepts of sports psychology such as consistency, leadership, confidence, experience, and hard work. These are areas where coaches and sports organizations can make an actionable impact — as they build team chemistry and champions.

What do the quant facts say as Virginia and Texas Tech get set to tip-off in the March Madness title game? For background, here’s our Final Four article and predictions:

2019 Final Four: Who Will Get to the Title Game?

Over the past decade, we have published quant fact predictions based on our research “Who Will Win…

Read more

Big Game Experience 

Neither team has played in the Final Four over the past few years, so there us is big game experience edge. Edge: None.

Read more here:

https://sportsquants.kinja.com/2019-march-madness-who-will-win-the-national-title-1833880971

Final Four 2019: Who Gets to the Title Game?

Over the past decade, we have published quant fact predictions based on our research “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological & Mathematical Approach.” Our published results have been correct about 65% of the time, often picking underdogs.

Our work has been particularly successful for college basketball and the Final Four (and we have been published in the New York Times and Wall St. Journal). 

Read more here:

https://sportsquants.kinja.com/2019-final-four-who-will-get-to-the-title-game-1833835821

Quant Facts Update (54-28 = 65.9%)

It's been a while since we updated the official record for our Quant Fact predictions.  With successful picks in the 2019 Super Bowl, as well as the second half of 2018, our record has improved to 54-28 -- for a winning percentage of 65.9%.  

We study sports analytics and sports psychology and focus on factors such as the fundamentals, execution, and leadership.  These are concepts that athletes and sports organizations can "key in" on as they put together a team.  Our quant fact predictions sometimes differ from the general consensus -- and our record is a testament to the unique and strong combination of quant analytics and sports psychology.  

We will be publishing our Quant Fact predictions for the Final Four as March Madness comes to an end this weekend.  We have historically done well with college basketball.  Please check our blog (as well as our Sports Quant kinja page:  https://sportsquants.kinja.com/

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is a fund manager and quant researcher focused on portfolio strategy and sports analytics. An adjunct Professor at Rowan University, Carlton has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings— and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America’s Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. A former university professor, he has authored several books on sport psychology — and has appeared on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.

   

2018 March Madness: Title Game

We ran our sports psychology analytics and published our official quant fact prediction.  Historically, we have done very well with college basketball. 

Our published results have been correct about 65% of the time, often picking underdogs.

This evening’s title game sees Villanova tip-off against Michigan. What do our sports psychology “quant facts” have to say about the big game?

Please read here for more info:
https://sportsquants.kinja.com/2018-final-four-who-will-win-the-ncaa-mens-hoops-title-1824253318

Who Will Win the 2016 NCAA Men's Basketball Title?

Our latest quant fact prediction has been posted here:

http://quantfacts.sportsblog.com/posts/15333730/who-will-win-the-2016-ncaa-men-s-basketball-tournament-.html


We correctly picked the winner of the Super Bowl -- and will update the record of our official quant fact picks shortly.  We have correctly picked the winner of major sporting events over 62% of the time based on sports psychology quant facts.

Who Will Win the 2015 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?

Our "quant fact" predictions split the Final Four semifinal games.  Here is our prediction for the 2015 men's basketball National Championship game.


Full link:

https://quantfacts.sportsblog.com/posts/2098032/2015_men_s_ncaa_basketball_championship__who_will_win_the_big_game_.html

Please follow us at:
https://quantfacts.sportsblog.com/


Carlton Chin is a fund manager, MIT-trained quantitative analyst, and co-author of “Who Will Win the Big Game?" He has been quoted by the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, and ESPN -- and worked with the Sacramento Kings on the 2014 NBA Draft. Dr. Jay Granat is the co-author of the "Who Will Win" book and owner of StayInTheZone.com.   

2015 NCAA Final Four Predictions

Our official quant fact predictions have been posted at SportsBlog.com.  We love the crystal ball-like photo that accompanies the article and hope our hot streak in men's college basketball continues.

Enjoy the games.



Carlton Chin is a quant fact researcher who enjoys applying math to everything from sports analytics to the financial markets. Thoughtful analysis can result in knowledge discovery and help to explain the world around us. Carlton has been a contributor to the Sacramento Kings Advisory Council, New York Times -- and has also been featured in the Wall Street Journal and ESPN. 

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and has been named one of America's top mental gurus. Jay coaches athletes of all levels, and has appeared in a variety of media outlets, including Good Morning America, ESPN and the New York Times.  

Quant Facts 41-25 (62.1%)

Our quant fact predictions go the Super Bowl wrong this year, dropping our results to 41-25 or 62.1%.  Stay tune for our March Madness Final Four predictions, coming up very soon.

Please visit our SportsBlog, where we post our content first!

https://quantfacts.sportsblog.com/

Quant Facts Now 40-23 (63.5%)

Our "quant fact" predictions were correct for all three games of the NCAA Men's Final Four. We correctly predicted that Connecticut would defeat Kentucky for the national title.  In addition, we had Connecticut and Kentucky winning their respective semifinal games.  Our methods have been particularly successful during March Madness.

This improves our record to 40-23 (63.5%) in major championships.  

We will be back shortly with our quant fact predictions -- related to sports psychology -- for the Stanley Cup Finals and NBA Finals.  

Carlton Chin is a quant fact researcher who enjoys applying math to everything from sports analytics to the financial markets. Thoughtful analysis can result in knowledge discovery and help to explain the world around us. Carlton has been a contributor to the New York Times and Rant Sports, and has also been featured in the Wall Street Journal and ESPN. 

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and has been named one of America's top mental gurus.  Jay coaches athletes of all levels, and has appeared in a variety of media outlets, including Good Morning America, ESPN and the New York Times.  

2014 Final Four: Who Will Win

Our quant fact predictions for the 2014 Final Four are summarized in the article below.  Here is an excerpt:

This research goes back to 1985 when the NCAA Tournament went to its current format.   

...

In a close game, free throws can make the difference between winning and losing a championship. The team with a better free throw percentage has won 73 percent of national title games since this data became available.

This factor favors Connecticut and its 77.4 free throw percentage over the Florida Gators at 66.7 percent. In the other semifinal matchup, the Wisconsin Badgers (74.1 percent) best the Wildcats (68.5 percent) in free throw shooting.

...

Research shows that defense does indeed win championships. The team with the better field goal percentage defense has won an overwhelming 92 percent of national championship games since this data became available.

Connecticut edges Florida in this statistic 39.2 percent to 39.9 percent. Interestingly, for all of the talk about Wisconsin’s defense, Kentucky rates better in field goal percentage defense 41.0 percent to 42.7 percent.

The sports psychology quant facts for the two semifinal games favor Connecticut over Florida and Kentucky over Wisconsin. 

Connecticut 4 (Experience, Leadership, Free Throws, FG Defense) – Florida 1 (Coach)

Kentucky 3 (Experience, Coach, FG Defense) – Wisconsin 1 (Free Throws)

Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/ncaa-basketball/2014/04/04/2014-final-four-sports-psychology-by-the-numbers/#pX7Vqz2F97Er2ktY.99

Our quant facts favor Connecticut and Kentucky in the semifinal games.  

***

For the Final: 
http://www.rantsports.com/ncaa-basketball/2014/04/06/2014-ncaa-tournament-who-will-win-the-big-game/

Quant Fact Predictions now 33-20 (62.3%)

After a slow start, Louisville won a relatively close game.  Our quant fact prediction for the NCAA Men's Basketball national championship game selected Louisville to win -- albeit in a close game.  This makes our quant fact predictions correct 62.3% of the time (33-20) -- since we started the book's blog several years ago.


Carlton Chin, CFA, is a quantitative researcher and portfolio strategist for Price Asset Management and Adamah Capital, a fund manager specializing in alternative assets & Computer Aided Research & Trading (CARAT).  Jay Granat, PhD is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com.  

Carlton and Jay are particularly interested in factors related to sports psychology -- traits that can be more readily coached and practiced.  Our research has shown that these traits can help sports organizations improve performance -- and win championships.  

NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Game (2013)

Below is an excerpt from our article in the NY Times, based on quant research of factors related to sports psychology, 

...we focused on factors that might help predict the winner of the N.C.A.A. tournament championship game between Louisville and Michigan. Last year’s article correctly selected Kentucky to win the national title.

With an eye toward key concepts of sport psychology, we looked at factors like big-game experience, leadership behind the bench, leadership on the court, error control and consistency. 

Consistency:  The team with the higher 3-point shooting percentage has won 11 of the last 14 title games.  Free-throw shooting percentage is also a measure of consistency, and teams with the higher free0throw percentage have gone 10-4 over the past 14 championship games.

In the table below, we list the performance of the Final Four teams in consistency categories like 3-point shooting and free-throw percentage.  We also included turnovers and a defensive measure because these are also championship traits.

	Louisville	Michigan
3-pt shooting%	32.9%	38.3%
Free-throw %	70.7%	70.0%
Turnovers per game	12.5	9.4
FG shooting defense	39.2%	42.3%

Who Will Win the Big Game?  Louisville has more championship factors in its favor, by a narrow 4-3 margin.  Based on our championship factors and season statistics, we developed a Monte Carlo simulator for college basketball, similar to the methodology we used for our football analyses.  The most frequently-occurring score was  Louisville 70, Michigan 69.

Read more here:

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/08/keeping-score-which-team-has-the-stats-of-a-champion/#more-46404

2013 Final Four (March Madness)

Based on quant research of factors related to sports psychology, we focused on several championship characteristics that might help predict the winner of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.  Last year’s article correctly selected Kentucky to win the national title.  

Consistency: Research has shown that consistency and error measures are also important to winning championships.  The team with the higher 3-point shooting percentage has won 11 of the last 14 title games.  Free throw shooting percentage is also a measure of consistency, and teams with the higher free throw percentage have gone 10-4 over the past 14 championship games. 

In the table below, we list the performance of the Final Four teams in consistency categories such as 3-point shooting and free-throw percentage.  We also include experience and leadership factors we discussed – as well as turnovers and a defensive measure, because these are also championship traits.

Who Will Win the Big Game?  Louisville has more championship factors in its favor than Wichita State, including big game experience and coaching leadership.  Wichita State has three-point shooting in its favor – while two factors (FG Shooting Defense and Turnovers per game) are very close.  In the other semifinal matchup, Michigan has more championship factors in its favor.  

Syracuse has coaching leadership and defense in its favor, but the other factors point to Michigan.

Based on our championship factors and season statistics, we developed a Monte Carlo simulator for college basketball, similar to the methodology we used for our football analyses.  The results for the simulations are centered around:  Louisville 69 – Wichita State 62 in the first semifinal game, and Michigan 69 – Syracuse 66 in the second semifinal game. 

Read more here:

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/677712-carlton-chin/1728391-final-four-factors-march-madness-2013

March Madness Results by Seed for "Round 2"

Now that the field of 64 is all set, we wanted to take a look at how the seeds performed in Round 2, as it is now called.  We computed the results last year, here.

This year, this work was done for us.  Here are the results for the Seeds in Round 2 through last year's tournament.  

Seed	Wins	Losses	Win %
1	112	0	100%
2	106	6	95%
3	96	16	86%
4	89	23	79%
5	74	38	66%
6	74	38	66%
7	67	45	60%
8	54	58	48%
9	58	54	52%
10	45	67	40%
11	38	74	34%
12	38	74	34%
13	23	89	21%
14	16	96	14%
15	6	106	5%
16	0	112	0%

Read more here:
http://www.sportsquants.com/2013/03/20/march-madness-1-results-seed/

March Madness 2012: Championship Game (NY Times)

Excerpt from our article in the New York Times.

Consistency: Research has shown that consistency and error measures are also important to winning championships. Historical data was not as readily available for some of the statistics (data goes back 13 seasons), but the team with the higher 3-point shooting percentage has won 10 of the last 13 title games. Teams with the higher free throw percentage have gone 9-4 over the past 13 championship games.

In the table below, we list the performance of Kentucky and Kansas in the categories related to consistency like 3-point shooting and free-throw percentage. We also included turnovers and a defensive measure because these are also championship traits. Kentucky holds the advantage in most of these statistical measures.

Read more here:

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/02/keeping-score-comparing-kentucky-and-kansas-on-the-stat-sheet/

Carlton J. Chin, a portfolio strategist, and Jay P. Granat, psychotherapist, are authors of “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method.” They have previously written about the World Series, the N.B.A. finals, and the Super Bowl.

Time-Lapse: Final Four Court Setup

This is a fun time-lapse video of the court set-up for this year's Final Four in New Orleans.  It took five weeks to set things up -- but you can watch it in two minutes!

March Madness 2012: The NCAA Men's Basketball Final Four

With an eye towards key concepts of sport psychology, we looked at factors such as big game experience, leadership behind the bench, leadership on the court, error control, and consistency.  So important are these concepts to winning championships that they have proven to be common themes across all sports we have studied.

Experience: Over the past 27 tournaments, 15 of 27 champions have had Final Four experience from the previous three years.  Teams with more Final Four appearances in the past three years have gone 11-5 (68.8%) in championship games.  Of this year’s Final Four contestants, only Kentucky has reached the Final Four over the past three years – and with this year’s appearance, Kentucky has reached the Final Four two years in a row.
...
Consistency: Research has shown that consistency and error measures are also important to winning championships.  Historical data was not as readily available for some of the statistics (data goes back 13 seasons), but the team with the higher 3-point shooting percentage has won 10 of the last 13 title games.  Free throw shooting percentage is also a measure of consistency, and teams with the higher free throw percentage have gone 9-4 over the past 13 championship games.
...
So who will win the big game?  The championship factors predict that Kentucky and Ohio State will advance to the championship game.  Once the finalists are determined, this ranking, based on the factors in the table, may be used to predict the champion: (1) Kentucky, (2) Ohio State, (3) Kansas, and (4) Louisville – to win the championship.


Read more at CNN.com here:
http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-769182


Carlton Chin, a portfolio strategist and MIT graduate, and Jay Granat, psychotherapist, are authors of “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method.”  They have previously written about the Super Bowl, World Series, and last year’s NCAA Tournament.

Extra Motivation, Recent Performance Overvalued - Or Both?

We sometimes write (and give statistics) to show that recent performance is often overvalued by sports fans.  Here's an article that backs up this hypothesis -- and might also suggest that teams losing their conference championships might be extra-motivated to perform well in the big NCAA Men's Tournament.  From the Wall St. Journal:

For the three No. 1 seeds in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament that didn’t win their conference tournaments, there’s good news: History suggests they have as good a chance as No. 1-seeded conference champs of winning it all. Or, more precisely, a better chance. Especially North Carolina and Kentucky.

Getty Images

Ten years ago, Maryland shook off an ACC tournament semifinal loss to win six straight and the NCAA title.

As Ben Cohen noted in the Wall Street Journal today, NCAA champs generally have won their conference tournament. But a lot of those champs weren’t No. 1 seeds. Among top seeds since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, a greater proportion of those No. 1 seeds that have lost in their conference tournaments have gone on to win it all than have those that cut the nets after their conferences’ championship games: six of 26 non-champs vs. eight of 64 champs, nearly twice the percentage (excluding No. 1 seeds that played in conferences without tournaments). Since just one team can win it all each year, average tournament wins also are worth watching. And the non-conference champs rule among top seeds there, too, with an average of 3.69 wins to 3.36 for the conference champs...

Read more here:

http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2012/03/14/ncaa-tournament-top-seeds-enter-more-important-tourney/ 

Final Four Probabilities (2012 NCAA Tournament)

We were fiddling around with some statistics and came up with these probabilities of advancing to the Final Four.  The numbers may be useful when filling out your brackets.  

                                           Probability of Winning Region 

Seed	Team	Region	Final Four Prob
1	Kentucky	S	42.4%
2	Ohio State	E	41.4%
1	UNC	MW	36.2%
2	Kansas	MW	26.9%
1	Mich. State	W	22.1%
2	Missouri	W	17.7%
1	Syracuse	E	15.7%
4	Wisconsin	E	14.8%
8	Memphis	W	10.4%
5	Wich. State	S	9.6%
2	Duke	S	8.2%