Indy 500 & Sports Psychology

We discuss, research, and quantify concepts of sports psychology that often determine the outcome of sporting events. Yesterday's Indy 500 is a sad reminder of how important these factors can be:

• Experience
• Mental errors
• Focus & concentration
• Consistency

Here's a quote and article about the Indy 500:

INDIANAPOLIS – One turn. One stinkin’ turn.

JR Hildebrand made it through 799 of ’em without any trouble. As the young Californian approached that final left, all he had to do was keep his car off the wall, speed down the main straightaway and collect a win in the Indianapolis 500 on his very first try.

Instead, Hildebrand made the sort of colossal blunder that will forever link him to the Jean Van de Veldes of the sporting world.
...
Hildebrand was faced with a choice when he came up on another rookie, Charlie Kimball, going much slower as they approached the fourth turn.

The prudent thing would’ve been to back off and tuck in behind Kimball until they were on the main straightaway. Then Hildebrand could’ve gone on by to take the checkered flag.

Instead, showing his inexperience, Hildebrand decided to stay on the gas and go around on the outside. That put him into “the marbles,” the tiny particles of rubber that gather near the wall, making that part of the track especially slick.

He never had a chance.

“Is it a move that I would do again?” Hildebrand said. “No.”

Read more:

http://www.journalgazette.net/article/20110530/SPORTS07/110539992

Video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZc_u2lfOeo

The Mental Error of Mental Errors -- BCS Championship

In last night's college football championship, Oregon committed the "mental error of all mental errors" by not finishing a tackle as time was winding down in a tie BCS championship game. Everyone stopped playing, and then Auburn's "almost-down" player realized that the whistle hadn't blown -- and scurried about 30 additional yards from midfield to within easy reach of a national title-winning field goal. These things happen, but it's too bad the title game had to come down to an odd play like this.

The 2011 BCS game featuring #1 Auburn and #2 Oregon was very exciting -- and had a fair amount of errors and mistakes (such as interceptions). Ultimately, execution and minimizing errors are some key indicators of success. Our "quant facts" of sports psychology factors focus on key execution factors (such as consistency), minimizing errors, and leadership & experience (which are correlated to confidence and execution). In combination, these factors have proven to be useful in predicting champions.

In addition -- although both teams are known for their high-powered offenses, the defenses once again showed that a good defense can slow down a good offense.

Oregon's loss drops our blog's record in "quant fact" predictions to 17-10. We try to quantify key concepts of sports psychology -- and the results have shown that these factors can be used to gain an edge in (and predicting) winning championships.