Who Will Win the Big Game: 2019 Super Bowl

Just a quick summary: the sport psychology factors we study point to the New England Patriots in this year's Super Bowl.  Many factors including big game experience, fewer mistakes by the team leader (QB), consistency, and defense -- all point to the Patriots.  This will count for our official quant fact predictions.

This year's Super Bowl does feature several story lines, most notably age versus youth.  Goff is entering his prime, while Brady is Brady (wanting to play until age 45!).  We'll update our record at some point, too.

Over the years, our Quant Fact predictions have been correct about 65% of the time, using sports psychology and numbers to get a different "viewpoint" on games -- and sometimes picking underdogs.

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment manager and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN. 

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN. 

2018 MLB World Series: East Meets West

Several years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

Since our book came out, our published “quant fact predictions” have been correct about 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs to win championships. What do the numbers say about the 2018 World Series? 

Read more here:

https://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-will-win-the-2018-world-series-east-meets-west-1829925471

We'll update our record after the World Series.

2017 MLB Playoff Preview

Here's an excerpt from our latest article -- on the 2017 MLB Playoffs:

Historically, we publish articles for the finals of major sporting events such as the Super Bowl or World Series. Here, we use our research to rank the 2017 MLB playoff contenders.

Our readers will recall that our quant facts are based on factors related to sports psychology. In particular, we study championship factors such as consistency, leadership, confidence, and big game experience. In almost a decade of published articles, our book’s research has correctly predicted the winner of major sporting events almost two-thirds of the time, sometimes picking underdogs.

Read more here.

Or here:

http://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-will-win-the-big-game-a-2017-mlb-playoff-preview-1819141384

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is a quant researcher focused on portfolio strategy and sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings on their Analytics Advisory Council — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN. Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of www.stayinthezone.com.  

Carlton’s students at a local university contributed to this article.

Super Bowl XLVIII Analytics (2014)

As you can tell, we enjoy sports -- and particularly playoffs and championship games.  Here are various sports analytics we have performed for this year's 2014 Super Bowl.  We looked at everything from "Wins Above Average" and Monte Carlo simulations to sports psychology and Pythagorean approaches.

 Sports Analytics approaches

• Monte Carlo sims http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/02/01/picking-the-winner-of-super-bowl-xlviii-with-monte-carlo-analysis/
• Player "Wins Above Average" http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/31/2014-super-bowl-wins-above-average-analysis-to-determine-a-winner/

Sports Psychology + Stats approach

http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/30/2014-super-bowl-who-will-win-the-big-game/

If you (or your friends) are in those Square Pools -- this could be interesting

http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/27/2014-super-bowl-square-pool-probabilities-by-quarter/

Carlton Chin, CFA, holds both undergraduate and graduate degrees from MIT and enjoys applying numbers to everything from sports analytics to the financial markets. He is a fund manager and quant researcher. He has been featured in the NY Times, RantSports, Wall St. Journal,SeekingAlpha & Financial Trader.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America's Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. A former university professor, he has authored several books on sport psychology -- and has appeared on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.

Quant Facts now 36-21 (63.2%)

With the tennis U.S. Open predictions completed, our "quant fact" sports predictions are now 36-21, for a 63.2% winning percentage.   Our U.S. Open predictions were based on the application of Monte Carlo techniques applied to each player's ability to hold and break serve, as mentioned in our New York Times article.

The tennis model built on other Monte Carlo research for New York Times football and basketball articles -- and other projects.  In addition to the Monte Carlo tennis research, we recently applied methods used by sabermetricians to baseball and other sports -- to an in-depth study of the all-time tennis greats (discussed briefly, here).

Our quant fact predictions are based on statistical and quantitative models that study factors related to sports psychology, where possible.  We sometimes key in on factors that sports analysts may undervalue -- so we sometimes find value on the underdog.  Thus, a 63% winning percentage is respectable, considering that we sometimes go against the grain (like we did, incorrectly, in the Nadal- Djokovic U.S. Open Final).


Carlton Chin is a portfolio strategist and fund manager.  An MIT-trained "quant," Carlton likes to apply statistical and probabilistic models to the financial markets, portfolio construction, and sports.  
Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and has worked with athletes of all levels.  Jay is the founder of StayInTheZone.com.    

Quant Facts now 30-19 (1/18/13)

With Alabama's victory over Notre Dame in this year's college football's national championship (BCS) game, our quant fact predictions improve to 30-19 (61.2%).  Math, statistics, and probabilities can be powerful tools in knowledge discovery -- and researching methods to optimize the chances of victory and winning championships.

Stay tuned for our upcoming analysis of the Super Bowl.  


Carlton Chin, CFA, is a quantitative researcher and portfolio strategist for Price Asset Management  and Adamah Capital, a hedge fund specializing in alternative assets & Computer Aided Research & Trading (CARAT).  Jay Granat, PhD is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com.  

Jay and Carlton are particularly interested in certain factors that can be coached and practiced.  Their research has shown that these traits can help sports organizations improve performance -- and win championships.  

Sports Psychology: Being a Mentally Tough Pitcher

With the MLB playoffs getting set to start, many analysts focus on the playoff contender's pitching staffs.  Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com -- and co-author of "Who Will Win the Big Game," recently helped with a study on how mental toughness develops in young pitchers.

Working with Anthony Cinelli of Boston University, Granat, interviewed college pitchers and learned that:

Many young baseball players are first introduced to this sport by their fathers. So, their dad is often their first coach. Therefore, fathers often play a crucial role in how an a pitcher develops physically and mentally.

Apparently, the young pitchers started to model some of the behaviors, attitudes and actions that were demonstrated by their fathers in the world of work. In short, they took what they observed their dad's doing in their lives and brought some of these attitudes and behaviors to the baseball field.Some of the pitchers interviewed also attributed the learning of mental toughness was function of watching their fathers behavior in their careers and in their businesses.

Others pitchers stated that fathers taught them valuable lessons about being accountable, taking responsibility and learning to accept good and bad performances.

Read more here:
http://ezinearticles.com/?Sports-Psychology-And-Baseball:-How-To-Be-A-Mentally-Tough-Pitcher&id=7310959



Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/7310959

Olympics: Revisiting a Popular Article

With the 2012 Olympics set to start in London (and today being July 4th), we thought we would revisit one of our more popular articles -- on the 1980 Miracle on Ice.  In that article, we looked at concepts of sports psychology and did an interesting and fun analysis (including Monte Carlo simulations) to study the odds of the U.S. ice hockey team winning the gold medal.

Herb Brooks was a true master of sports psychology, graduating from college with a degree in psychology.  Brooks knew he had a chance to make some noise at the Olympics - especially with the US hosting the Winter Olympics.  Brooks worked at gathering players who could lift their games to special levels -- and could also play as part of a team where the sum of the parts were greater than the individual pieces.  

On goaltender Jim Craig and other players, Brooks said, "I don't want the best players, I want the right players."  Brooks knew what he was doing when he put his 1980 team together, piece by piece.  He also knew how to "push the players' buttons" and was tough on many members of that Miracle on Ice -- but eventually created one of the most beloved U.S. sports stories of the twentieth century.

Based on key hockey statistics and expectations, we performed a Monte Carlo simulation to study the odds of the United States hockey team winning the gold medal. Monte Carlo methods use a random process to solve complicated problems...

In a similar manner, hockey games can be modeled based on certain random variables and key statistics, including shots on goal, save percentage and shot efficiency. If we model the United States team as a seventh seed, the probability of the United States winning the gold medal approaches odds as high as 1 in 1,000. 

But the United States turned out to be a stronger team than expected. Entering the medal round of the Olympics, the United States and Soviet teams were undefeated. The United States was 4-0-1, outscoring their opponents by 25-10, while the Russians were 5-0, outscoring their opponents by 51-11. The Soviet goaltenders, Vladislav Tretiak and Vladimir Myshkin, averaged a solid 88.2 save percentage, and the American goalie Jim Craig had a 91.7 save percentage.

If we base our simulations on the team’s performance in the tournament, the odds could have been as low as 17-to-1 for the United States win the gold medal.

The entire article was originally published in the NY Times in 2010, on the 30th anniversary of the Miracle on Ice.  Read more here:
http://vancouver2010.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/22/how-miraculous-was-the-miracle/?scp=1&sq=miraculous%20miracle&st=cse

Quant Facts 29-18 (6/22/12)

Quant Facts & Sport Psychology Predict the NBA Champion

Congratulations to both the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder on great NBA seasons.  We look forward to years of exciting action from these teams and players.  The 2011-12 strike-shortened season had many exciting moments -- and super performances from many teams in addition to the finalists, including the Bulls, Celtics, and Spurs.

With the Miami Heat taking the 2012 NBA Championship, our "Who Will Win" blog's "quant fact" record improves to 29-18 (61.7%).  It is noteworthy that the Oklahoma City Thunder was a favorite to defeat Miami in the NBA Finals.  This is a testament to the power of "the concepts of sports psychology": championship traits (related to sport psychology) sometimes go against conventional wisdom -- but have been correct more than 60% of the time, between two fairly evenly-matched champions.

In particular, our work has shown that "big game experience" is one of the most important factors (even at the highest level!) -- and the relationship between experience and confidence can yield that elusive mental edge.  Experience, confidence, and mental toughness can have a material impact on results.

We had no official quant fact prediction in the NHL -- although some readers pointed out that if we went purely by the numbers, the quant facts would have been correct!



Carlton Chin, CFA, an MIT-trained "quant" and portfolio strategist and Dr. Jay Granat, a psychotherapist and sports psychologist, wrote "Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Approach."  Chin is a specialist in risk management and asset allocation -- and Granat is founder of StayInTheZone.com. 

Quoted by Bergen Record on the NY Giants' 2011 Season

"Who Will Win the Big Game?" co-author, Dr. Jay Granat, was recently quoted by the Bergen Record:

The nightmares still haunt the Giants, hiding just beneath the surface.

AP

In Tom Coughlin’s eight seasons, the Giants are 47-17 in the first half. They are just 24-32 in the second.

The Second-Half Collapse of 2008. And 2009. And 2010.

They’re still very much with the team.

“You just try not to think about it,” linebacker Michael Boley said. “The last couple of years we’ve been known to collapse toward the end of the year.”

The Giants are off to another strong start, just as they were in 2008. And 2009. And 2010.

But no matter how big Sunday’s victory over the Patriots was, and no matter how rosy things appear at 6-2 with a two-game lead in the NFC East, the specter of another second-half fade will hang over them until they exorcise those demons.

In Tom Coughlin’s eight seasons, the Giants are 47-17 in the first half. They are just 24-32 in the second.

Jay P. Granat, a River Edge-based sports psychologist and founder of StayInTheZone.com, said the Giants have two tremendous advantages they did not have in previous seasons...


Read more here:
http://www.northjersey.com/sports/pro_sports/football/Giants_hoping_to_avoid_another_second-half_meltdown.html


Dr. Jay Granat, a psychotherapist and sports psychologist, is co-author of "Who Will Win the Big Game?  A Psychological & Mathematical Approach" with Carlton Chin, CFA, an MIT-trained "quant" and fund manager.  Granat is founder of StayInTheZone.com and Chin is chief investment officer of CARAT / Adamah Capital.  

Quant Facts: 25-15

Our "quant fact" predictions dropped to 25-15, with the Texas Rangers failing to close out the World Series (by yielding leads two times) in Game Six.  Congratulations to both teams on a great season and an exciting World Series.

Several people have commented about our analysis and lamented about the lack of hard-core, deep, analysis.  While we perform very serious research in other sports and financial work, our analysis for our book, "Who Will Win the Big Game?" -- and series of blog posts and articles -- is fairly simple, and is meant to demonstrate the power of sports analytics applied to concepts of sports psychology.  Our methods focus on statistics that relate to championship characteristics such as consistency, leadership, experience, and minimizing errors.

While we have developed game simulators that can predict, with more precision, the probabilities of certain events occurring in major sports such as baseball and football -- our more "simple"methods come up with interesting angles and sometimes pick underdogs.

If we want a more complex analysis, we can use our game simulators.  Or, we can apply all kinds of modern-day sabermetric-type analysis and try to come up with an edge.  But will it really be an edge?

If we use these methods and attempt to use them at sports books in Nevada, we do not believe there will be much of an edge over the casinos.  After all, that's their job: they are oddsmakers and the odds they put out are fairly "sharp" -- especially when factoring in how the oddsmakers will "balance" their book of business.

If we use complex analysis -- we will probably come up with similar results of the sports books.  This, then, yields no edge, as we will have to pay for the more expensive odds that the favorite would require.  On the other hand, our methods sometimes pick underdogs (such as New Orleans over the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV [winner], or Flyers in 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs [loser], and March Madness -- where we have been particularly successful).

In my work with Dr. Jay Granat, we use fairly simple methods to quantify concepts of sports psychology.  While some of these methods seem "simple," they demonstrate the power of sports analytics and sports psychology.  We believe that this approach can uncover edges in sports.

Quant Facts now 25-14

With the St. Louis Cardinals advancing to the 2011 World Series, the "Quant Facts" from our "book's blog's official" predictions are now 25-14 (64%).  These predictions are based on research from our book, "Who Will Win the Big Game?"  Our quant fact predictions analyze angles related to sport psychology -- and are often overlooked by many sports analysts; the quant facts regularly predict surprises and underdogs to win.  Stay tuned for our analysis on the World Series.

Teams, coaches, athletes, and sports organizations may be interested in more in-depth analytical research that range from quantitative analytics of sports statistics and sport psychology -- to sports analytics based on our development and use of game simulators for major sports such as baseball and football.  A simple version of our baseball simulator was developed for our book, "Baseball + Numbers."  Please contact us for more information.

  

NL Championship Series

The St. Louis Cardinals stunned the Philadelphia Phillies and all of their "Phans" -- but on closer inspection of the statistics, the Cardinals are very strong in one of the key sports psychology categories we study: consistency.

In baseball, one measure of consistency is the batting average.  A high team batting average means longer rallies -- and indeed, St. Louis led the National League in runs scored this season.  The Cardinals will face the Milwaukee Brewers, led by the dynamic duo of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder (who defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks).

What do the "quant facts" say about the 2011 NL Championship?  Here is a quick look at some of the factors related to sports psychology from our book, "Who Will Win the Big Game?"  (A Psychological and Mathematical Method).

• Pitching Leadership: Favors Milwaukee, with aces Gallardo & Greinke.  
• Focus, Defense & Fielding: Both teams were equally mediocre on the field this year.
• Consistency: This factor -- based on "batting average rank" points to the Cardinals in a big way.  The Cardinals led the NL with a .273 team batting average.  The Brewers were a respectable third in the NL, but a distant third at .261.  
• Big Game Experience: Neither team reached the World Series over the past three years (so this is neutral based on how we measured this category).  We do note, however, that the Cardinals won the World Series in 2006.

Overall, the factors lean to the Cardinals with their big team batting average.  This will count for our book's blog's "official" quant fact predictions.

_________________________________

With the baseball playoffs in full force, there has been some interest in my new baseball book.  The book is meant to teach math to younger fans, but includes rankings of batters and greatest teams that some may like.  Please check it out:

Quant Fact Predictions now 24-14

Just a quick update after the Wimbledon Women's Final quant fact prediction.  We had no official play on the Wimbledon Men's Final.  

Our book's blog's record in "quant fact predictions" now stands at 24-14, a solid record that is based on the quantitative analysis of "sports psychology" that can help sports organizations and fans gain an edge.  The statistics add several interesting angles to sports analytics -- and regularly picks underdogs.

Dr. Jay Granat, a sports psychologist, and Carlton Chin, a "quant" fund manager and MIT graduate --  study and quantify championship characteristics related to sport psychology.  They are particularly interested in qualities that are more readily coached, taught, and practiced.  

Wimbledon: Men's Final

Yesterday, we blogged about our tennis measure of focus and mental toughness: Big Point Performance (BPP).  We used a similar approach for the Men's Final at Wimbledon -- which has Nadal facing Djokovic.

Djokovic has had a spectacular year, going 47-1 and has taken the #1 ranking in the world from Nadal -- who held that top spot for 56 weeks.  "Djoko" the Joker has the momentum AND the confidence on his side.  This should be a great match, with new #1 -- facing Nadal, an all-time great -- who will be gunning for Djokovic.

We were a bit surprised to see Nadal outperform Djokovic during their respective quarterfinal and semifinal matches -- in terms of Big Point Performance (BPP).  Thus, our "quant fact" stat will go with Nadal to add to his list of Grand Slam titles -- but other sport psychology factors such as confidence and momentum go to Djoko.  As a result there is no "quant fact" prediction for the Men's Final.  Enjoy the match!

Quant Fact Predictions now 24-13

We're still licking our wounds from the NHL & NBA Finals -- but it goes to show you that the statistics won't be correct all of the time -- but they DO put the "wind at your back."

• Vancouver was beaten by a red-hot goalie who was definitely "in the zone" as well as hard-nosed, great playoff hockey by the Bruins.
• Miami was defeated by unbelievable teamwork, a quiet leader and star named Dirk Nowitzki -- and huge veteran play by Jason Kidd.  
• Congrats to both champions, the NBA's Dallas Mavericks & the NHL's Boston Bruins.

Our book's blog's record in "quant fact predictions" now stands at 24-13 (64.9%), still a solid record that is based on quantifying concepts of sports psychology.  The statistics add several interesting angles to sports analytics -- and regularly picks underdogs.     

Who Will Win the NBA Finals?

Here is an excerpt from our analysis on the NBA Finals, published in the NY Times:

Keeping Score: Championship Characteristics in the N.B.A. Finals

By CARLTON J. CHIN and JAY P. GRANAT

After analyzing the championship games or series of the N.F.L., N.B.A., Major League Baseball and N.H.L., and the major finals in golf and tennis, we identified 50 championships characteristics in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

Based on this research, we focused on several championship characteristics that might help predict the winner of the N.B.A. finals, which start Tuesday night in Miami.

Last year’s analysis highlighted leadership factors and correctly predicted that the Lakers would win the championship.

Read more here:

http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/keeping-score-championship-characteristics-in-the-n-b-a-finals/

Indy 500 & Sports Psychology

We discuss, research, and quantify concepts of sports psychology that often determine the outcome of sporting events. Yesterday's Indy 500 is a sad reminder of how important these factors can be:

• Experience
• Mental errors
• Focus & concentration
• Consistency

Here's a quote and article about the Indy 500:

INDIANAPOLIS – One turn. One stinkin’ turn.

JR Hildebrand made it through 799 of ’em without any trouble. As the young Californian approached that final left, all he had to do was keep his car off the wall, speed down the main straightaway and collect a win in the Indianapolis 500 on his very first try.

Instead, Hildebrand made the sort of colossal blunder that will forever link him to the Jean Van de Veldes of the sporting world.
...
Hildebrand was faced with a choice when he came up on another rookie, Charlie Kimball, going much slower as they approached the fourth turn.

The prudent thing would’ve been to back off and tuck in behind Kimball until they were on the main straightaway. Then Hildebrand could’ve gone on by to take the checkered flag.

Instead, showing his inexperience, Hildebrand decided to stay on the gas and go around on the outside. That put him into “the marbles,” the tiny particles of rubber that gather near the wall, making that part of the track especially slick.

He never had a chance.

“Is it a move that I would do again?” Hildebrand said. “No.”

Read more:

http://www.journalgazette.net/article/20110530/SPORTS07/110539992

Video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZc_u2lfOeo

Quant Fact Predictions now 23-11

Since "Who Will Win the Big Game?" (A Psychological and Mathematical Approach) was published about a year-and-a-half ago, the book's analysis and "quant fact" predictions have made it into the NY Times and Wall Street Journal -- as well as other media outlets.

Jay Granat and Carlton Chin quantify key concepts of sports psychology -- and with the recent March Madness article in the New York Times -- the book's blog's predictions have now put together a 23-11 record.  The "quant facts" sometimes point to surprises and upsets, so the 23-11 record shows the importance of championship characteristics such as experience, leadership (both on the field and coaching), consistency, and minimizing errors.


Jay Granat, PhD is a sports psychologist and founder of StayInTheZone.com.  Carlton Chin, CFA, is a portfolio manager and quantitative researcher for Adamah Capital, a hedge fund specializing in alternative assets & Computer Aided Research & Trading (CARAT).  Jay and Carlton are particularly interested in certain factors that can be coached and practiced.  Their research has shown that these traits can help sports organizations improve performance -- and win championships.  

Sports Psychology, Quant Facts & the Masters

Jay Granat, a sports psychologist, wrote an article for the Masters based on our book's "quant facts" research for golf.  Several of the key stats for professional golf include:

• putting, 
• greens in regulation, and 
• birdies.   

From the article:

Some time ago, my colleague and friend, Carlton Chin and I wrote a book about the mathematical and psychological factors which allow teams, players and coaches to excel. This year, we decided to analyze some of the major golfing events. The factors that we considered are recent wins, money leaders, number of par three birdies, number of par five birdies, number of top ten finishes and driving distances. We are trying to identify golfers who are consistent and who may be peaking at the right time to win this prestigious event.

Interestingly, we do not think that Phil Mickelson or Tiger Woods will do very well. Tiger has not looked very good lately and neither has Phil Mickelson. They are both great players and stars of the game, but they lack the stats to get our nod this year. Here is a list of some of the players who may be ready to wear the green jacket this year. Bubba Watson has been playing great lately and he has a very versatile game. Matt Kuchar has been sharp and consistent. These golfers are our top two picks. Nick Watney, Luke Donald, Rory Sabbitini, Zach Johnson, Aaron Baddeley, Hunter Mahan, Dustin Johnson, Vijay Singh, Johnattan Vegas, K.J. Choi, Martin Laird, D.A Points and Brandt Snedeker are also on our radar.

The entire article is here.