Greatest Runs in the NBA Playoffs

The Miami-Oklahoma series has had some great games so far.  With the 2012 NBA finals going on, ESPN published a nice article about some of the greatest runs during the NBA playoffs.  We like to rate and rank all-time great teams and players -- and with today's playoffs being so long (several rounds of seven-game series), the teams mentioned in the article rank up there with some of the greatest teams in history.


In addition, based on the level of competition -- and the stars in today's game, Miami and Oklahoma City are no slouches (in the all-time great teams lists)!  Miami had to overcome Boston & Indiana, while OKC had to defeat the Spurs and Lakers -- just to reach this year's finals.   


http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2012/story/_/page/greatestruns-1-5/nba-playoffs-ranking-greatest-runs

2012 NBA Finals (NY Times)

Our "Who Will Win" analysis was published in the NY Times.  Here's an excerpt:

Big Game Experience: Over the past 22 years, the team with more finals appearances over the previous three years has won 11 of 14 finals series (78.6 percent) in which one team had more experience than the other. This factor favors the Miami Heat, who are in their second straight N.B.A. finals.

Error Control: In baseball, fielding percentage during the regular season is correlated to winning the World Series. Similarly, in professional basketball, the team with fewer turnovers during the regular season has won 72.7 percent of the N.B.A. finals (16-6) over the past 22 years. This factor favors Miami (1,002 turnovers) over Oklahoma City (1,079 turnovers).

Over all: The championship factors favor the Heat, 3-2. Indeed, several of the strongest factors, like big-game experience and error control, predict that James will come away with his first championship with Miami. 

Miami is our "book blog's" official "quant fact" prediction.

Read more here:
http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/12/keeping-score-reading-statistics-like-tea-leaves/ 

The 2012 Stanley Cup Finals (NY Times)

 New Jersey goalie Martin Brodeur will be going for his fourth Stanley Cup Championship versus the Los Angeles Kings. 


Our analysis was picked up by the New York Times.  Here's an excerpt:

Over the past 32 years, the team with a better goals-against average has won 18 Stanley Cups (56.3 percent). But since the high-scoring period of the mid-80’s to the mid-90’s ended – the team with the better goals-against average has been even more dominant: 4-1 over the last five years, 7-3 over the last 10, and 12-6 over the last 18 years.

....




Read more here:


http://slapshot.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/30/keeping-score-looking-at-history-to-predict-a-champion/

Note: For purposes of this blog, there is no definitive "quant fact" prediction for this year's Stanley Cup Finals.