Who Will Win the Big Game?

Wednesday, June 4, 2014

2014 Stanley Cup: Who Will Win?

Here's an excerpt from our analysis on this year's Stanley Cup.

Together with Dr. Jay Granat, a psychotherapist, I quantified factors related to concepts of sports

psychology. Our “quant facts” have successfully predicted the winner of this year’s Super Bowl and the NCAA tournament’s Final Four. In total, our predictions have been 63.5 percent correct in major championships — while sometimes going against the grain and picking underdogs.

Our research has shown that big-game experience is related with winning

the big game. Over the past 34 years, teams that appeared in the Stanley Cup Finals over the previous three years have compiled an 85 percent winning percentage in Finals. The Kings have the edge in this department, winning the Stanley Cup just two years ago. Edge: Kings.

Saturday, May 31, 2014

Quant Facts Now 40-23 (63.5%)

Our "quant fact" predictions were correct for all three games of the NCAA Men's Final Four. We correctly predicted that Connecticut would defeat Kentucky for the national title. In addition, we had Connecticut and Kentucky winning their respective semifinal games. Our methods have been particularly successful during March Madness.

This improves our record to 40-23 (63.5%) in major championships.

We will be back shortly with our quant fact predictions -- related to sports psychology -- for the Stanley Cup Finals and NBA Finals.

Carlton Chin is a quant fact researcher who enjoys applying math to everything from sports analytics to the financial markets. Thoughtful analysis can result in knowledge discovery and help to explain the world around us. Carlton has been a contributor to the New York Times and Rant Sports, and has also been featured in the Wall Street Journal and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and has been named one of America's top mental gurus. Jay coaches athletes of all levels, and has appeared in a variety of media outlets, including Good Morning America, ESPN and the New York Times.

Saturday, April 5, 2014

2014 Final Four: Who Will Win

Our quant fact predictions for the 2014 Final Four are summarized in the article below. Here is an excerpt:

This research goes back to 1985 when the NCAA Tournament went to its current format.

...

In a close game, free throws can make the difference between winning and losing a championship. The team with a better free throw percentage has won 73 percent of national title games since this data became available.

This factor favors Connecticut and its 77.4 free throw percentage over the Florida Gators at 66.7 percent. In the other semifinal matchup, the Wisconsin Badgers (74.1 percent) best the Wildcats (68.5 percent) in free throw shooting.

...

Research shows that defense does indeed win championships. The team with the better field goal percentage defense has won an overwhelming 92 percent of national championship games since this data became available.

Connecticut edges Florida in this statistic 39.2 percent to 39.9 percent. Interestingly, for all of the talk about Wisconsin’s defense, Kentucky rates better in field goal percentage defense 41.0 percent to 42.7 percent.

The sports psychology quant facts for the two semifinal games favor Connecticut over Florida and Kentucky over Wisconsin.

Connecticut 4 (Experience, Leadership, Free Throws, FG Defense) – Florida 1 (Coach)

Kentucky 3 (Experience, Coach, FG Defense) – Wisconsin 1 (Free Throws)

Our quant facts favor Connecticut and Kentucky in the semifinal games.

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For the Final:
http://www.rantsports.com/ncaa-basketball/2014/04/06/2014-ncaa-tournament-who-will-win-the-big-game/