Quant Facts now 26-16

The NY Giants defeated the SF 49ers, 20-17 in overtime, dropping our quant fact predictions to 26-16 in published plays.  It was a great win for the "big play" Giants -- and conversely, a difficult loss for the 49ers.  It will be a long off-season for San Francisco and Kyle Williams, who had two fumbles on punt returns (as he substituted for the 49ers' regular punt returner, injured Ted Ginn, Jr.).

During the regular season, San Francisco played a very clean brand of football (in terms of turnovers), tying an NFL record with just 10 giveaways -- including none on special teams.  However, the New York Giants have been playing great "big play" football and are peaking at the right time.  The (bad) breaks caught up to the 49ers at a bad time for San Francisco.

The Giants now advance to the Super Bowl, where they will face the Patriots in a rematch of SB XLII four years ago.  Stay tuned for more Super Bowl info...

Who Will Win the NFC Championship Game? (Jan 2012)

This year's NFC Championship Game is very interesting. We have a red-hot New York Giant team going up against a solid San Francisco 49ers squad that "quietly" put together a consistently great season.

As sports fans might expect, San Francisco shines in many statistics -- and this is true for the key championship characteristics that we study. In particular, the 49ers run an offense that can control the ball and is very mistake-free. In addition, although Giants fans have been talking up the Giant pass-rush and defense, San Francisco had the NFL's best defense this season.

The Giants have been red-hot, easily handling Atlanta in Round 1 of the playoffs 24-2, and then controlled most of the game against Green Bay, winning 37-20. The Giants ended the regular season on a strong note -- with a difficult schedule -- with wins against the likes of the Jets and Dallas (twice), before storming into the playoffs.

San Francisco got by New Orleans 36-32, and to many, the NFC Championship game pits strength (49ers) against a hot team with good momentum (Giants). We believe that the 49ers also have good momentum -- and for the most part, the championship characteristics point to San Francisco. Interestingly, our research, also says that momentum and a team's recent performance is sometimes overvalued.

As a result, our blog's official prediction is on the San Francisco 49ers. We do not have an official quant fact prediction on the AFC Championship game. New England is a fairly large favorite, but we note that the Patriots put together their regular-season record against a relatively weak schedule. In addition, Baltimore, as usual, boasts a top-notch defense and is battle-hardened because of their divisional rivalry with Pittsburgh.
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Carlton Chin, CFA, an MIT-trained "quant" and fund manager and Dr. Jay Granat, a psychotherapist and sports psychologist, wrote "Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Approach." Chin is a specialist in futures and quantitative trading systems at CARAT / Adamah Capital and Granat is founder of StayInTheZone.com.

Quant Facts now 26-15

Our "quant fact" predictions, related to our book's research, are now 26-15.  Stay tuned for more quant fact predictions as the NFL playoffs heat up.

Thanks to Alabama's air-tight defense in the 2012 BCS Championship, our "Who Will Win the Big Game?" blog  predictions improved to 26-15. Our championship factors relating to sports psychology picked Alabama because of their edge in defense, recent big game experience, coaching, and rushing game.