Quant Fact Predictions Update: Now 63.5%

Overview:  

• Quant Fact Prediction Update (now 66-38, or 63.5%).  
• And a look at analysis, probabilities & models.  

Many occurrences in nature, science, and business can be described by the bell curve or standard normal distribution. The chart below (from one of my papers) shows quarterly stock market returns graphed — and how the graph looks like a bell curve. However, upon closer inspection, you can see that things are not quite what they seem.

The edge of the curve is wider, or fatter, than the bell curve. That is, investment returns actually exhibit more occurrences at the tails than the bell curve would predict. The bottom half of the chart zooms in on the tail of stock market graph. This behavior is referred to as fat-tails and reflects the fact that we get larger moves to the downside (crashes) and upside than expected by statistical models.

Read more here: 

https://carltonchin.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-two-charts-quant-facts

2023 College Football: National Championship

 

College football’s championship game features the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs against the TCU Horned Frogs (Texas Christian University). What do our championship factors say about this year’s title game?

Read more here: 

https://carltonchin.substack.com/p/georgia-vs-tcu-who-will-win-the-big

Who Will Win the 2022 World Series?

 

Who will win the 2022 World Series between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies? More than ten years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

Read more here:

https://carltonchin.substack.com/p/the-2022-world-series-who-will-win

Who Will Win the Big Game? LAR vs. Cin in 2022 Super Bowl

The Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams kick-off Super Bowl LVI in about one week. About a decade ago, a colleague and I performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL.

Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

The research launched a series of articles that has been published by the Wall Street Journal and New York Times — and has picked the correct winner of major sporting events about 65% of the time. 

Read more here: 

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/super-bowl-lvi-2022-who-will-win-the-big-game-6d2d000fcf62

Super Bowl Square Pool Odds by Quarter, UPDATED!

Do you have your Super Bowl Square Pool box yet? The Super Bowl kicks off in less than two weeks — and many people are getting in on the popular 10x10 Square Pool. The great thing about these pools is that it is totally random, so if you are watching the game, you have a “fair” rooting interest.

We will be coming out with our Who Will Win article for this year’s Super Bowl soon!

Read more here:  

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/2022-super-bowl-square-pool-odds-updated-for-recent-rules-c3bde1d372f7

A Tournament of Champs: The GOAT of Men's Olympic Hockey

 With the 2022 Winter Olympic Games approaching, we present Part 2 of our series of articles on which Olympic Men’s Hockey team is the greatest of all time (GOAT). In Part 1 (2017) of our work, we used analytics and statistics to study the best Olympic hockey teams in history.

Which is the Greatest Olympic Hockey Team of All-Time Based on Stats and Computer Simulations?

Co-authored by Carlton Chin, founder of CARAT / Adamah Capital. Carlton, a graduate of MIT, is a quant researcher…

www.huffpost.com

In Part 2 of the series, we perform computer simulations to run tournaments of the best Olympic teams in history. Readers may want to read Part 1 of our article to see the main inputs and metrics (such as ELO, tournament performance, and more) that comprise our computer sim. Our goal is to blend statistical facts and information including, but not limited to, categories of offense, defense, goaltending, strength of schedule, talent, preparation, tactics, and more.

Similar to our first article, we include Gold medal teams since 1932. We also included the 1980 Soviet team, which was upset by the 1980 USA “Miracle on Ice” team. Part 2 has been updated to reflect additional thoughts, especially related to how a a hot goaltender can drive teams to Olympic hockey gold.

Read more here: 

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/a-computer-sim-tournament-to-determine-the-goat-of-mens-olympic-hockey-e6dde632ad7a

Carlton Chin holds both graduate and undergraduate degrees from MIT, and is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Jon Hartley and Bob Gibson contributed reporting. Jon Hartley is an economist, policy expert, and member of Forbes’ 30 under 30 (2017). Jon has worked with the Dallas Cowboys in sports analytics and has been featured by CNBC, Forbes, and the Huffington Post. Jon holds degrees from Harvard, Wharton, and the U of Chicago — and is a PhD candidate at Stanford. Bob Gibson is a fan and historian of Olympic Hockey.

The 2022 College Football Championship: Alabama vs. Georgia

Several years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

Since that time, our published “quant fact predictions” have been correct 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs to win championships. What do the numbers say about this year’s College Football Championship?

Defense

Perhaps a boring mantra, but our research shows that defense does indeed win championships. One exception was the NHL’s high-scoring Wayne Gretzky period, where offenses led the way for a short period. Earlier in the season, Georgia’s defense was being considered “historically great.”

Georgia went on to lose 41–24 to a motivated Alabama team on December 4th. Georgia yielded almost one-third of their season’s total points that day. Even so, Georgia has given up about half as many points as compared to Alabama this season (135 to 269).

It will be interesting to see if the first Alabama-Georgia game was a blip, or if Georgia does indeed have a “historically great defense” and bounces back in a revenge game. There are multiple interesting storylines! Edge: Georgia.

Read more here:

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/who-will-win-the-big-game-alabama-vs-georgia-on-1-10-22-b99e9aeae844

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.

Quant Fact Predictions (Now 65%)

With the year winding down, it's a good time to take stock and see how we have been doing.  

• It's been a while since we updated the record of our Quant Fact predictions.  
• We are currently at 62-33 (65.3%).  

Note that we will have a prediction for the College Football Championship -- as well as the Super Bowl.  

Happy Holidays!  

- Carlton & Jay 

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer focused on portfolio strategy and data-driven models. Carlton has been a professor at a local university and worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings.  He  has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America’s Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. He is the owner of StayInTheZone.com and has authored several books on sport psychology — appearing on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.

Who Will Win the 2021 World Series?

This article is about the World Series and includes information on Skill vs. Luck.   

**

Sports Psychology Quant Facts

The 2021 World Series is almost ready to start. What do the sports psychology quant facts say? Across all sports studied, it is interesting that less-glitzy statistics and factors are what wins championships. This may be true because of the higher level of competition. For instance, in football, the Super Bowl winner is more likely to be the quarterback who has thrown fewer interceptions during the regular season than the flashier quarterback with a higher QB rating and 40 TDs.

Similarly, in baseball, while home runs win regular season games, batting average is a better indicator of consistency and the ability to put together a rally against better pitching. That is, batting average is a better predictor of the World Series champion than home runs.

**

Read more here: 

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/2021-world-series-who-will-win-skill-vs-luck-d3719979eaf6

Please note that we post more regularly on Medium, please follow us there: 

"Who Will Win" Article for 2021 March Madness

This year’s March Madness action has busted more than a few brackets. Now that the NCAA Tournament is down to the Final Four, can our quant fact numbers make sense of the remainder of the men’s college basketball season?

Since that time, our published results have predicted the winner of major sporting events about 65% of the time, sometimes picking underdogs. Our predictions have been particularly successful for the Final Four. 

Read more here: 

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/can-numbers-make-sense-of-2021s-march-madness-9652180d43b5 

Super Bowl Articles

 Probabilities of Square Pool Numbers: 

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/2021-super-bowl-square-pool-odds-by-quarter-fd87c5cbccf0 

"Who Will Win" article

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/who-will-win-the-big-game-super-bowl-lv-2021-d18beae17043 

Enjoy the Big Game!

Who Will Win the 2020 World Series? Dodgers-Rays

Even after a Covid-19 shortened season and an extra round of playoffs, Major League Baseball’s top two teams will meet in the 2020 MLB World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays, the teams with the best records in their respective leagues, start the World Series on Tuesday, October 20, 2020. What do our “championship factors” have to say about the World Series?

Read more here:  

https://medium.com/@carltonjchin/who-will-win-the-2020-world-series-dodgers-rays-677f773e935c

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment manager and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN. Carlton’s class at Rowan University contributed reporting.

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.

The 2020 NBA Finals: LA Lakers or Miami Heat?

The Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat tip-off this week for the 2020 NBA Finals. What do our “championship factors” have to say about the Finals?

Read more here: 

https://medium.com/@carltonjchin/who-will-win-the-2020-nba-finals-6900cf7c7100

Carlton Chin, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer (CIO) and Head of Research at CARAT Capital and an RIA (CPA) and has served as head of investments and research (as well as portfolio manager) for Goldman Sachs, Commodities Corp., Mt. Lucas, and Price Asset/Adamah.  Carlton is a specialist in portfolio construction, alternative assets, quant research, and downside risk management. He has been quoted by the Wall St. Journal, NY Times, and Financial Trader -- and holds both SM and SB degrees from MIT.

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.

Who Will Win the 2020 Stanley Cup Final?

 

Our regular series of “Who Will Win” quant facts predictions has been correct almost 65% of the time — regularly picking underdogs! The results are based on championships going back several decades — and across major sports including the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and professional tennis and golf.

What do our championship factors say about this year’s NHL Stanley Cup Finals between the Tampa Bay Lighting and Dallas Stars?

Read more here: 

https://medium.com/@carltonjchin/who-will-win-the-2020-stanley-cup-117bac3ad2c8 

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and quant researcher focused on portfolio strategy and sports analytics. A professor at Rowan University, Carlton has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN. Carlton’s class at Rowan contributed reporting.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America’s Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. He has authored several books on sport psychology — and has appeared on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.