Sunday, January 22, 2023

Quant Fact Predictions Update: Now 63.5%

Overview:  

  • Quant Fact Prediction Update (now 66-38, or 63.5%).  
  • And a look at analysis, probabilities & models.  


Many occurrences in nature, science, and business can be described by the bell curve or standard normal distribution. The chart below (from one of my papers) shows quarterly stock market returns graphed — and how the graph looks like a bell curve. However, upon closer inspection, you can see that things are not quite what they seem.

The edge of the curve is wider, or fatter, than the bell curve. That is, investment returns actually exhibit more occurrences at the tails than the bell curve would predict. The bottom half of the chart zooms in on the tail of stock market graph. This behavior is referred to as fat-tails and reflects the fact that we get larger moves to the downside (crashes) and upside than expected by statistical models.



Read more here: 

https://carltonchin.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-two-charts-quant-facts

Sunday, January 8, 2023

2023 College Football: National Championship

 

College football’s championship game features the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs against the TCU Horned Frogs (Texas Christian University). What do our championship factors say about this year’s title game?


Read more here: 

https://carltonchin.substack.com/p/georgia-vs-tcu-who-will-win-the-big

Thursday, October 27, 2022

Who Will Win the 2022 World Series?

 

Who will win the 2022 World Series between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies? More than ten years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.


Read more here:

https://carltonchin.substack.com/p/the-2022-world-series-who-will-win