Saturday, April 5, 2014

2014 Final Four: Who Will Win

Our quant fact predictions for the 2014 Final Four are summarized in the article below.  Here is an excerpt:

This research goes back to 1985 when the NCAA Tournament went to its current format.   

In a close game, free throws can make the difference between winning and losing a championship. The team with a better free throw percentage has won 73 percent of national title games since this data became available.

This factor favors Connecticut and its 77.4 free throw percentage over the Florida Gators at 66.7 percent. In the other semifinal matchup, the Wisconsin Badgers (74.1 percent) best the Wildcats (68.5 percent) in free throw shooting.

Research shows that defense does indeed win championships. The team with the better field goal percentage defense has won an overwhelming 92 percent of national championship games since this data became available.

Connecticut edges Florida in this statistic 39.2 percent to 39.9 percent. Interestingly, for all of the talk about Wisconsin’s defense, Kentucky rates better in field goal percentage defense 41.0 percent to 42.7 percent.

The sports psychology quant facts for the two semifinal games favor Connecticut over Florida and Kentucky over Wisconsin. 

Connecticut 4 (ExperienceLeadership, Free Throws, FG Defense) – Florida 1 (Coach)
Kentucky 3 (Experience, Coach, FG Defense) – Wisconsin 1 (Free Throws)

Our quant facts favor Connecticut and Kentucky in the semifinal games.  


For the Final:

Saturday, March 1, 2014

Quant Facts now 37-23 (61.7%)

With the Super Bowl quant fact prediction of Seattle, our record for quant fact predictions improves to 37-23 (61.7%).  This shows the power of sports analytics and quantifying concepts of sports psychology. The results are particularly strong because we sometimes pick underdogs and can find value where other analysts may not be looking.

Carlton Chin is a quant fact researcher who enjoys applying math to everything from sports analytics to the financial markets. Thoughtful analysis can result in knowledge discovery and help to explain the world around us. Carlton has been a contributor to the New York Times and Rant Sports, and has also been featured in the Wall Street Journal and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and Jay has been named one of America's top mental gurus, coaches athletes of all levels, and has appeared in a variety of media outlets, including Good Morning America, ESPN and the New York Times.  

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

2014 Winter Olympics: Which Countries Performed the Best?

Here is an excerpt from my article on the 2014 Sochi Olympics.  Note that I reference two links / articles that may be of interest:

The article looks at overall medal performance -- as well as performance as a function of population and GDP.  

The 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics ended on February 23. History has been written, new records have been achieved and medals have been awarded. There have been many story lines such as Russian skating sensation Yulia Lipnitskaya becoming the youngest Olympic gold medalist in team figure skating at age 15. The Olympics are a special time as the world cheers for athletic excellence and countries seem to pull together to root for their country’s athletes.

As Olympic fans note, there are several lists of medal counts. Some people like to follow the gold medal count while others focus on total medals. Based on an informal survey, we created a point value system for medals as follows: five points for a gold medal, two points for silver, and one point for bronze.
Based on this point system, we awarded the following medals for overall country performance:

Gold – Russia
Silver – Norway
Bronze — Canada
Special mention: USA (fourth place)