Here's an excerpt from our analysis that was published in the New York Times. Please click on the link below for the entire article.
Based on this research, we focused on several championship characteristics that might help predict the winner of the N.B.A. finals. We also applied a Monte Carlo simulation similar to methods used in our previous articles to compute series probabilities for the NBA finals between the Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs.
Big Game Experience: Over the past 23 years, the team with more finals appearances over the previous three years has 12 of 15 (80.0%) in N.B.A. finals. The Miami Heat are in their third consecutive finals, winning the title last year. Edge: Miami.
...We ran a Monte Carlo simulation based on our factors and the home-away schedule for this year’s N.B.A. finals. The simulation says that Miami has a 71.2 percent chance of winning, with the following probabilities:
Please click below for the probabilities and the whole article.