Update - Aussie Open & Big Point Performance

Just a quick update on "Big Point Performance" during this year's Aussie Open. In our book, we developed an interesting statistic for tennis that attempts to study a tennis player's focus and performance on "big points."

How is this measure performing during this year's Aussie Open? Starting in the fourth round of the tournament, we used our "Big Point Performance" (BPP) to predict how players might perform in the next round of the tournament. So far, this indicator has been 8-4 in men's and women's singles matches, starting in the quarterfinals.

The indicator correctly predicted some of these upsets:

• N. Li over Venus Williams
• Cilic over Roddick
• Murray over Nadal

Since our last post on this topic, this is how some other BPP predictions fared:

• Murray over Cilic -- correct
• Federer over Tsonga -- correct
• Henin over S. Williams -- wrong. Our "leading indicator" which has been a good predictor -- this time told the story of the match. Serena Williams and Justine Henin played a good three-set match that was very close. Williams won 90 total points to 85 for Henin. Winners minus unforced errors was also very close, with Williams at 32-37 for -5 and Henin at 28-32 for -4. However, the difference in the match was Williams converting 6 of 11 (55%) break point chances while Henin converted just 5 of 16 (31%) break points.

In the Men's Final, BPP shows that Roger Federer has been very focused on the big points over his past few matches -- and has been better than Murray in this department. Stay tuned...

We'll continue to track this indicator (build our database for BPP) as well as other statistics that help improve athletic performance and development.

Football Results and Super Bowl

Our power rankings have gone 6-4 during the playoffs this year. We'll look at updated power rankings, sport psychology factors (from our book), and some other stats right before the Super Bowl.

Thanks to a reader who commented about our College Football Championship prediction being correct -- based on sport psychology factors.

http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2010/01/college-football-national-title-game.html

2010 Australian Open, Sport Psychology & Focus

In our book, "Who Will Win the Big Game?" we study concepts of sport psychology and try to back up these ideas with statistics. For tennis, we developed an interesting statistic that attempts to study a tennis player's focus and performance on "big points." While it is difficult to isolate specific factors in sporting events, one of our project's goals is to move forward in this direction: to measure these "elusive intangibles."

How is this measure performing during this year's Aussie Open? Starting in the fourth round of the tournament, we used our "Big Point Performance" (BPP) to predict how players might perform in the next round of the tournament. So far, this indicator has been 6-3 in men's and women's matches, starting in the quarterfinals.

The indicator correctly predicted some of these upsets:

• N. Li over Venus Williams
• Cilic over Roddick
• Murray over Nadal

Some upcoming match predictions:

• Murray over Cilic
• Federer over Tsonga
• Henin over S. Williams

We'll continue to track this indicator (build our database for BPP) as well as other statistics that help improve athletic performance and development.

NY Times Article on Book's Research & NFL Playoffs

Here's an article that we worked on with the New York Times to take a look at the NFL Conference Championships.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/23/in-some-ways-jets-look-like-a-champion/

Book is Available

Our book became available at Amazon today.

Updated NFL Power Rankings

Our power rankings have gone 5-3 in the NFL Playoffs so far.

1. New Orleans

2. Minnesota

3. NY Jets

4. Indianapolis

Who Will Win the Super Bowl & Why? (Press Release)

Here is a link to a Press Release on Yahoo:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/prweb/20100119/bs_prweb/prweb3457844

Some highlights:

River Edge, NJ, January 19, 2010 -- A new book by Jay P. Granat, Ph.D. Psychotherapist and Founder of www.stayinthezone.com and Carlton Chin, CFA, outlines fifty mathematical and psychological factors of champions who win big games, like The Super Bowl.

...

What really determines who wins big games like The Super Bowl? What separates two great teams from one another? What causes errors in big games? And what allows some players and teams to handle the pressure? What causes teams, players and coaches to choke under the pressure of a big game like The Super Bowl? And what can be done to help players, teams and coaches perform their best in The Super Bowl and other big games?

Indeed, there are a lot of factors which determine who will win The Super Bowl. Some experts focus on traditional football statistics like: points scored, points allowed, number of wins, number of losses, turnovers, takeaways, yards gained, yards allowed, quarterback ratings, momentum, margin of victories, margin of losses and recent performances. And these measures are relevant.

However, Dr. Granat and Carlton Chin show how mental toughness, coaching, leadership, focus, errors, interpersonal relationships, attitude, and ability to get into the zone contribute to success in big games. And they have mathematical data which support many of their theories.

Press Release Excerpt on the Book

What does it take to be a champion? What separates winners from losers? More importantly, is there something we can do to improve our chances of winning?

Does defense really win championships? Should golfers really focus on their putting? A new book, by Dr. Jay Granat and Carlton Chin, studies these factors and more – verifying and disproving - various hypotheses with the actual results of major sports championships.

Dr. Granat, a psychotherapist, applies his experience working with athletes of all levels – ranging from Olympic athletes to student athletes – in order to identify “championship characteristics.” Chin, an MIT-trained “quant,” researches these traits using factor analysis. Together, they have identified key winning factors related to sport psychology – backed by a statistical analysis of historical results.

Book Cover

Our final edits have gone to the publisher and editor. The book cover is also being finalized (link):

http://www.caratcapital.com/WhoWins_cover.htm

NFL Playoff Power Rankings

Based on factors from our book, here is a Power Ranking list for this year's NFL playoff teams. Rankings on based on factors such as:
- Quality Wins,
- Strength of Schedule,
- Actual performance (with emphasis on defense),
- Big Game Experience
- Execution measures (errors - such as interceptions)

Ranking Team
1 Green Bay
2 Minnesota
3 New Orleans
4 Dallas
5 San Diego
6 New England
7 New York Jets
8 Indianapolis
9 Baltimore
10 Cincinnati
11 Philadelphia
12 Arizona

College Football National Title Game 1/7/10

"Who Will Win the Big Game" studies Championship Characteristics related to winning the big game. In particular, we research factors related to sport psychology -- and using quantitative research -- show that the difference between winning and losing often comes down to factors such as:
- Experience
- Leadership
- Coaching
- Execution (high-level play while minimizing errors).

Based on our research, these factors would favor Alabama over Texas in tonight's title game. Visit our blog for more tidbits and "quant facts" in the sports world.

New Book: Who Will Win the Big Game?

Who Will Win the Big Game?

50 Championship Characteristics

A Psychological & Mathematical Method

for Identifying Winning Players, Teams & Coaches

by

Dr. Jay P Granat, PhD

and

Carlton J. Chin, CFA

will be coming out shortly.