Wednesday, October 28, 2015

2015 World Series: Who Will Win?

Our quant fact predictions have correctly predicted the winner of major sporting events over 60% of the time, regularly picking underdogs and focusing on several angles that may be overlooked.  Here, we look at the 2015 World Series between the New York Mets and the Kansas City Royals.  

In a short series, anything can happen, but leadership at the top of your team's pitching staff is a great indication of baseball success in the playoffs.  This edge goes to the Mets with their young guns on the mound.  Edge: Mets.
The importance of consistency cannot be overlooked in sports. Teams and athletes get into a certain rhythm and execute successfully.  In baseball, we found that team batting average, as measured by league rank, is a great indicator of success in the World Series.  Interestingly, batting average is a much greater predictor of success than home run power.  The Royals were one of the top-rated teams in the American League in terms of batting average, while the Mets were below average.  Edge: Royals. 
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Carlton Chin, CFA, is a fund manager, MIT-trained quantitative analyst, and co-author of “Who Will Win the Big Game?" He has been quoted by the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, and ESPN-- and worked with the Sacramento Kings on the NBA Draft.  Dr. Jay Granat is the owner of and has been named one of America's top mental gurus by Golf Digest.  

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

2015 MLB Playoff Preview: "Who Will Win" Style

The Major League Baseball Wild Card games are over and we have eight teams still standing.  The St. Louis Cardinals have the best record (100-62) in baseball this year while the Toronto Blue Jays achieved the largest run differential (221 = runs scored minus runs against).  But will they win the World Series?  Here, we look at some interesting stats and indicators that have proven to be good predictors in the past.  Some of these metrics are related to concepts of sports psychology, such as a focus on fundamentals, leadership, consistency, and minimizing errors.   

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Quant Facts now 44-27 (62.0%)

It's been a while since we updated our "Who Will Win" quant fact prediction record, but there hasn't been a championship in one of the major sports for a while.

We correctly picked the winner of the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship (splitting the semi-final Final Four games).

We were correct in picking the winner of the Stanley Cup, but incorrectly predicted that LeBron James would bring the championship to Cleveland, albeit as an underdog.

Our preview of the 2015 MLB Playoffs (Elite Eight) will be published shortly.  Thanks for reading!