"Who Will Win" Article for 2021 March Madness

This year’s March Madness action has busted more than a few brackets. Now that the NCAA Tournament is down to the Final Four, can our quant fact numbers make sense of the remainder of the men’s college basketball season?

Since that time, our published results have predicted the winner of major sporting events about 65% of the time, sometimes picking underdogs. Our predictions have been particularly successful for the Final Four. 

Read more here: 

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/can-numbers-make-sense-of-2021s-march-madness-9652180d43b5 

Super Bowl Articles - 2020

Here are links to our 2020 Super Bowl Articles. 

Do you have your Super Bowl Square Pool box yet? The Super Bowl kicks off on an interesting date for number nerds this coming Sunday: on 02/02/2020!

Read more here: 
https://sportsquants.kinja.com/super-bowl-square-pool-probabilities-by-quarter-updat-1841264836


Over the years, Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, and I have studied championship factors related to sports psychology to predict the winners of major championships. Much of our research has focused on quantifying concepts such as consistency and minimizing errors.

Read more here:
https://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-will-win-the-big-game-2020-super-bowl-1841415370


We'll update our Quant Facts prediction record before March Madness begins!  

Quant Fact Update (56-29=65.9%) and More

Please keep an eye on our column at Kinja for updated articles.  We recently updated our Quant Fact record, and also published an NBA article: 

• Our record on published sports predictions now stands at 65.9%, pending results on the NBA and NHL finals.  
• We also wrote about Quant Analysis and the financial markets / investments.
• Read more here:
• https://sportsquants.kinja.com/quantitative-analysis-quant-facts-and-more-1835300590

• If you haven't yet seen it, here's our NBA article:
• https://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-wins-the-2019-nba-finals-golden-state-or-toronto-1835133123

Who Will Win the 2016 NCAA Men's Basketball Title?

Our latest quant fact prediction has been posted here:

http://quantfacts.sportsblog.com/posts/15333730/who-will-win-the-2016-ncaa-men-s-basketball-tournament-.html


We correctly picked the winner of the Super Bowl -- and will update the record of our official quant fact picks shortly.  We have correctly picked the winner of major sporting events over 62% of the time based on sports psychology quant facts.

2015 World Series: Who Will Win?

Our quant fact predictions have correctly predicted the winner of major sporting events over 60% of the time, regularly picking underdogs and focusing on several angles that may be overlooked.  Here, we look at the 2015 World Series between the New York Mets and the Kansas City Royals.  

In a short series, anything can happen, but leadership at the top of your team's pitching staff is a great indication of baseball success in the playoffs.  This edge goes to the Mets with their young guns on the mound.  Edge: Mets.

The importance of consistency cannot be overlooked in sports. Teams and athletes get into a certain rhythm and execute successfully.  In baseball, we found that team batting average, as measured by league rank, is a great indicator of success in the World Series.  Interestingly, batting average is a much greater predictor of success than home run power.  The Royals were one of the top-rated teams in the American League in terms of batting average, while the Mets were below average.  Edge: Royals. 

Read more here:

http://quantfacts.sportsblog.com/posts/6160404/who-will-win-the-2015-world-series-.html

Carlton Chin, CFA, is a fund manager, MIT-trained quantitative analyst, and co-author of “Who Will Win the Big Game?" He has been quoted by the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, and ESPN-- and worked with the Sacramento Kings on the NBA Draft.  Dr. Jay Granat is the owner of StayInTheZone.com and has been named one of America's top mental gurus by Golf Digest.  

2014 Final Four: Who Will Win

Our quant fact predictions for the 2014 Final Four are summarized in the article below.  Here is an excerpt:

This research goes back to 1985 when the NCAA Tournament went to its current format.   

...

In a close game, free throws can make the difference between winning and losing a championship. The team with a better free throw percentage has won 73 percent of national title games since this data became available.

This factor favors Connecticut and its 77.4 free throw percentage over the Florida Gators at 66.7 percent. In the other semifinal matchup, the Wisconsin Badgers (74.1 percent) best the Wildcats (68.5 percent) in free throw shooting.

...

Research shows that defense does indeed win championships. The team with the better field goal percentage defense has won an overwhelming 92 percent of national championship games since this data became available.

Connecticut edges Florida in this statistic 39.2 percent to 39.9 percent. Interestingly, for all of the talk about Wisconsin’s defense, Kentucky rates better in field goal percentage defense 41.0 percent to 42.7 percent.

The sports psychology quant facts for the two semifinal games favor Connecticut over Florida and Kentucky over Wisconsin. 

Connecticut 4 (Experience, Leadership, Free Throws, FG Defense) – Florida 1 (Coach)

Kentucky 3 (Experience, Coach, FG Defense) – Wisconsin 1 (Free Throws)

Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/ncaa-basketball/2014/04/04/2014-final-four-sports-psychology-by-the-numbers/#pX7Vqz2F97Er2ktY.99

Our quant facts favor Connecticut and Kentucky in the semifinal games.  

***

For the Final: 
http://www.rantsports.com/ncaa-basketball/2014/04/06/2014-ncaa-tournament-who-will-win-the-big-game/

Quant Facts now 36-21 (63.2%)

With the tennis U.S. Open predictions completed, our "quant fact" sports predictions are now 36-21, for a 63.2% winning percentage.   Our U.S. Open predictions were based on the application of Monte Carlo techniques applied to each player's ability to hold and break serve, as mentioned in our New York Times article.

The tennis model built on other Monte Carlo research for New York Times football and basketball articles -- and other projects.  In addition to the Monte Carlo tennis research, we recently applied methods used by sabermetricians to baseball and other sports -- to an in-depth study of the all-time tennis greats (discussed briefly, here).

Our quant fact predictions are based on statistical and quantitative models that study factors related to sports psychology, where possible.  We sometimes key in on factors that sports analysts may undervalue -- so we sometimes find value on the underdog.  Thus, a 63% winning percentage is respectable, considering that we sometimes go against the grain (like we did, incorrectly, in the Nadal- Djokovic U.S. Open Final).


Carlton Chin is a portfolio strategist and fund manager.  An MIT-trained "quant," Carlton likes to apply statistical and probabilistic models to the financial markets, portfolio construction, and sports.  
Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and has worked with athletes of all levels.  Jay is the founder of StayInTheZone.com.    

2013 US Open Men's Final - Nadal vs. Djokovic

Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, we made a quant fact prediction for the women's champion early in the tournament, that turned out to be correct.  Congratulations to Serena Williams, as well as Victoria Azarenka, who made it a much tougher match than many predicted.  Azarenka is a worthy opponent -- and former number one player in the world, and at age 24, looks like she is poised to regain the top ranking in the world as Serena Williams gets further into her thirties.

On the men's side, our quant fact predictions (based on our Monte Carlo analysis) picks Djokovic in a very close match.  We are looking forward to a great match!  The final is a match-up between:

• ... a red-hot Nadal, who is the favorite based on oddsmakers -- and has been broken only once during the U.S. Open -- against... 
• Djokovic, who has been number one since his fantastic year in 2011 -- and maintains the best return game on hard courts this season.
• In many ways, this is a match between momentum (Nadal has been red-not!) against intermediate-term statistics and rankings (Djokovic maintains the best raw statistics, especially based on his return game).  
• In much of our research, momentum is sometimes overvalued, so our quant fact prediction is on Djokovic.    

We will update the record of our quant fact predictions after the U.S. Open.  

Quant Fact Predictions now 35-20 (63.6%)

With our predictions for both the Stanley Cup Finals and NBA Finals correct, our quant fact predictions improve to 35-20, or 63.6%.  Our work shows the power of quantifying concepts related to sports psychology.  Sometimes our championship factors agree with the general consensus, but sometimes we pick against generally-accepted favorites.  As one of our readers said, "I'll take 65% all day long!"

The factors we focus on are more easily coached -- and can help improve results.  These include a focus on the fundamentals, minimizing errors, and methods to improve confidence.  

***

Stay tuned for our work focusing on baseball pitching -- 

and how pitchers can improve their results.  

Please vote in our POLL to the left.
Or Click Here.

Quant Facts now 61.5% (32-20)

Our methods continue to perform particularly well in March Madness, with our quant facts correctly predicting the winners of both semifinal games of the Final Four.  Our Monte Carlo simulations also performed well, with predictions relatively close to the actual final scores.

Our model predicted a Louisville win of 69-62 (Louisville wins by 7), with the actual final score being 72-68 (Louisville by 4).  Similarly, our Monte Carlo simulations predicted Michigan to win by a score of 69-66 (Michigan by 3).  The actual final score was Michigan 61-56 (Michigan by 5).

Stay tuned for our analysis of the National Championship game on Monday.   

2013 Final Four (March Madness)

Based on quant research of factors related to sports psychology, we focused on several championship characteristics that might help predict the winner of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.  Last year’s article correctly selected Kentucky to win the national title.  

Consistency: Research has shown that consistency and error measures are also important to winning championships.  The team with the higher 3-point shooting percentage has won 11 of the last 14 title games.  Free throw shooting percentage is also a measure of consistency, and teams with the higher free throw percentage have gone 10-4 over the past 14 championship games. 

In the table below, we list the performance of the Final Four teams in consistency categories such as 3-point shooting and free-throw percentage.  We also include experience and leadership factors we discussed – as well as turnovers and a defensive measure, because these are also championship traits.

Who Will Win the Big Game?  Louisville has more championship factors in its favor than Wichita State, including big game experience and coaching leadership.  Wichita State has three-point shooting in its favor – while two factors (FG Shooting Defense and Turnovers per game) are very close.  In the other semifinal matchup, Michigan has more championship factors in its favor.  

Syracuse has coaching leadership and defense in its favor, but the other factors point to Michigan.

Based on our championship factors and season statistics, we developed a Monte Carlo simulator for college basketball, similar to the methodology we used for our football analyses.  The results for the simulations are centered around:  Louisville 69 – Wichita State 62 in the first semifinal game, and Michigan 69 – Syracuse 66 in the second semifinal game. 

Read more here:

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/677712-carlton-chin/1728391-final-four-factors-march-madness-2013