"Who Will Win" Article for 2021 March Madness

This year’s March Madness action has busted more than a few brackets. Now that the NCAA Tournament is down to the Final Four, can our quant fact numbers make sense of the remainder of the men’s college basketball season?

Since that time, our published results have predicted the winner of major sporting events about 65% of the time, sometimes picking underdogs. Our predictions have been particularly successful for the Final Four. 

Read more here: 

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/can-numbers-make-sense-of-2021s-march-madness-9652180d43b5 

Who Will Win the NCAA Men's Hoops Title?

We quantify concepts of sports psychology such as consistency, leadership, confidence, experience, and hard work. These are areas where coaches and sports organizations can make an actionable impact — as they build team chemistry and champions.

What do the quant facts say as Virginia and Texas Tech get set to tip-off in the March Madness title game? For background, here’s our Final Four article and predictions:

2019 Final Four: Who Will Get to the Title Game?

Over the past decade, we have published quant fact predictions based on our research “Who Will Win…

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Big Game Experience 

Neither team has played in the Final Four over the past few years, so there us is big game experience edge. Edge: None.

Read more here:

https://sportsquants.kinja.com/2019-march-madness-who-will-win-the-national-title-1833880971

Final Four 2019: Who Gets to the Title Game?

Over the past decade, we have published quant fact predictions based on our research “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological & Mathematical Approach.” Our published results have been correct about 65% of the time, often picking underdogs.

Our work has been particularly successful for college basketball and the Final Four (and we have been published in the New York Times and Wall St. Journal). 

Read more here:

https://sportsquants.kinja.com/2019-final-four-who-will-get-to-the-title-game-1833835821

Who Will Win the 2015 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?

Our "quant fact" predictions split the Final Four semifinal games.  Here is our prediction for the 2015 men's basketball National Championship game.


Full link:

https://quantfacts.sportsblog.com/posts/2098032/2015_men_s_ncaa_basketball_championship__who_will_win_the_big_game_.html

Please follow us at:
https://quantfacts.sportsblog.com/


Carlton Chin is a fund manager, MIT-trained quantitative analyst, and co-author of “Who Will Win the Big Game?" He has been quoted by the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, and ESPN -- and worked with the Sacramento Kings on the 2014 NBA Draft. Dr. Jay Granat is the co-author of the "Who Will Win" book and owner of StayInTheZone.com.   

NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Game (2013)

Below is an excerpt from our article in the NY Times, based on quant research of factors related to sports psychology, 

...we focused on factors that might help predict the winner of the N.C.A.A. tournament championship game between Louisville and Michigan. Last year’s article correctly selected Kentucky to win the national title.

With an eye toward key concepts of sport psychology, we looked at factors like big-game experience, leadership behind the bench, leadership on the court, error control and consistency. 

Consistency:  The team with the higher 3-point shooting percentage has won 11 of the last 14 title games.  Free-throw shooting percentage is also a measure of consistency, and teams with the higher free0throw percentage have gone 10-4 over the past 14 championship games.

In the table below, we list the performance of the Final Four teams in consistency categories like 3-point shooting and free-throw percentage.  We also included turnovers and a defensive measure because these are also championship traits.

	Louisville	Michigan
3-pt shooting%	32.9%	38.3%
Free-throw %	70.7%	70.0%
Turnovers per game	12.5	9.4
FG shooting defense	39.2%	42.3%

Who Will Win the Big Game?  Louisville has more championship factors in its favor, by a narrow 4-3 margin.  Based on our championship factors and season statistics, we developed a Monte Carlo simulator for college basketball, similar to the methodology we used for our football analyses.  The most frequently-occurring score was  Louisville 70, Michigan 69.

Read more here:

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/08/keeping-score-which-team-has-the-stats-of-a-champion/#more-46404

Quant Facts: 28-18

Kentucky's win in the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Game brings our quant fact predictions to 28-18 for a winning percentage of 60.9% in published predictions on our book's blog.  We have done particularly well during the Final Four over the past three years, with our focus on factors related to:

• Leadership both on the court (All-Americans) and behind the bench (coaching),
• Experience - which leads to confidence
• Consistency - factors that relate to a consistently high level of play.  

March Madness 2012: Championship Game (NY Times)

Excerpt from our article in the New York Times.

Consistency: Research has shown that consistency and error measures are also important to winning championships. Historical data was not as readily available for some of the statistics (data goes back 13 seasons), but the team with the higher 3-point shooting percentage has won 10 of the last 13 title games. Teams with the higher free throw percentage have gone 9-4 over the past 13 championship games.

In the table below, we list the performance of Kentucky and Kansas in the categories related to consistency like 3-point shooting and free-throw percentage. We also included turnovers and a defensive measure because these are also championship traits. Kentucky holds the advantage in most of these statistical measures.

Read more here:

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/02/keeping-score-comparing-kentucky-and-kansas-on-the-stat-sheet/

Carlton J. Chin, a portfolio strategist, and Jay P. Granat, psychotherapist, are authors of “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method.” They have previously written about the World Series, the N.B.A. finals, and the Super Bowl.

March Madness 2012: The NCAA Men's Basketball Final Four

With an eye towards key concepts of sport psychology, we looked at factors such as big game experience, leadership behind the bench, leadership on the court, error control, and consistency.  So important are these concepts to winning championships that they have proven to be common themes across all sports we have studied.

Experience: Over the past 27 tournaments, 15 of 27 champions have had Final Four experience from the previous three years.  Teams with more Final Four appearances in the past three years have gone 11-5 (68.8%) in championship games.  Of this year’s Final Four contestants, only Kentucky has reached the Final Four over the past three years – and with this year’s appearance, Kentucky has reached the Final Four two years in a row.
...
Consistency: Research has shown that consistency and error measures are also important to winning championships.  Historical data was not as readily available for some of the statistics (data goes back 13 seasons), but the team with the higher 3-point shooting percentage has won 10 of the last 13 title games.  Free throw shooting percentage is also a measure of consistency, and teams with the higher free throw percentage have gone 9-4 over the past 13 championship games.
...
So who will win the big game?  The championship factors predict that Kentucky and Ohio State will advance to the championship game.  Once the finalists are determined, this ranking, based on the factors in the table, may be used to predict the champion: (1) Kentucky, (2) Ohio State, (3) Kansas, and (4) Louisville – to win the championship.


Read more at CNN.com here:
http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-769182


Carlton Chin, a portfolio strategist and MIT graduate, and Jay Granat, psychotherapist, are authors of “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method.”  They have previously written about the Super Bowl, World Series, and last year’s NCAA Tournament.

Kyle Singler's Trick Shots at Duke

Check this out; fun video...

http://eye-on-college-basketball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26283066/29509895

NCAA Men's Basketball Championship 2011

Thank you for the kind notes we have received about our NY Times article on the Final Four, championship characteristics, and "quant fact" predictions. 

Our "quant fact" traits remain the same in terms of which team is predicted to win the 2011 NCAA Men's Championship: UConn has more factors on its side (so our blog's "official prediction" will be UConn) -- although Butler has shown what experience and coaching can do!


Carlton Chin, CFA, is chief investment officer and founder of alternative asset fund manager Adamah / CARAT Capital.  Jay Granat, PhD, is a psychotherapist, sports psychologist, and founder of StayIntheZone.com.   

Final Four Factors - 2011

Here is an excerpt from our analysis of the Final Four of the 2011 Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament.

In our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological and Mathematical Method,” we analyzed the championship games or series of the N.F.L., N.B.A., Major League Baseball and N.H.L., and the major finals in golf and tennis, to identify championship characteristics. Based on that research, we are again focusing on the factors that might help predict the winner of the N.C.A.A. men’s basketball tournament. Last year’s analysis correctly predicted that Duke would win the championship, and that Butler would be a threat to Michigan State in the semifinals.

The championship factors and quant facts point to Connecticut and Butler advancing to the final.  These predictions will count for our blog's official "quant fact" selections.  We'll also clarify our quant fact prediction for the 2011 March Madness champion before Monday's Championship Game.

Read more here:
http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/02/keeping-score-the-traits-of-a-winning-team/

A March Madness Pool (Modeling the Madness as a Marketplace)

We are pleased to be working with the University of Chicago on a free March Madness Pool.  Carlton Chin devised the pool with a Financial Markets class -- that models each game as a financial marketplace.  As a result, the pool is run "round-by-round."  The pool is open to all and several organizations have contributed prizes.  Note that entries are due a few days earlier than most pools to generate closing price information.

Opening pricing will be available for the first round on Monday morning.  Closing prices will be a function of market participant entries -- and will be used to award points for correct picks.  Pricing can be used as a proxy for the probability of a team advancing to the next round.  

For more information -- and to get your first round entries in -- please visit the March Madness link at http://www.caratcompanies.com/.

March Madness: Coming Soon!

March is coming up fast, and we will have our "quant facts" analysis of the sports psychology factors for the Final Four.  In the meantime, we are excited to be working on a pool for the NCAA Men's Tournament - where the match-ups of each round are modeled as a financial marketplace.

The pool will be open to all, and there will be prizes.  Note that this pool will be round-by-round, and that entries are due a little earlier than for other pools.  Please visit our blog for more information as the March Madness Tournament gets closer.