Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Quant Fact Predictions now 23-11

Since "Who Will Win the Big Game?" (A Psychological and Mathematical Approach) was published about a year-and-a-half ago, the book's analysis and "quant fact" predictions have made it into the NY Times and Wall Street Journal -- as well as other media outlets.

Jay Granat and Carlton Chin quantify key concepts of sports psychology -- and with the recent March Madness article in the New York Times -- the book's blog's predictions have now put together a 23-11 record.  The "quant facts" sometimes point to surprises and upsets, so the 23-11 record shows the importance of championship characteristics such as experience, leadership (both on the field and coaching), consistency, and minimizing errors.

Jay Granat, PhD is a sports psychologist and founder of StayInTheZone.com.  Carlton Chin, CFA, is a portfolio manager and quantitative researcher for Adamah Capital, a hedge fund specializing in alternative assets & Computer Aided Research & Trading (CARAT).  Jay and Carlton are particularly interested in certain factors that can be coached and practiced.  Their research has shown that these traits can help sports organizations improve performance -- and win championships.  

Friday, April 8, 2011

Sports Psychology, Quant Facts & the Masters

Jay Granat, a sports psychologist, wrote an article for the Masters based on our book's "quant facts" research for golf.  Several of the key stats for professional golf include:

  • putting, 
  • greens in regulation, and 
  • birdies.   

From the article:

Some time ago, my colleague and friend, Carlton Chin and I wrote a book about the mathematical and psychological factors which allow teams, players and coaches to excel. This year, we decided to analyze some of the major golfing events. The factors that we considered are recent wins, money leaders, number of par three birdies, number of par five birdies, number of top ten finishes and driving distances. We are trying to identify golfers who are consistent and who may be peaking at the right time to win this prestigious event.

Interestingly, we do not think that Phil Mickelson or Tiger Woods will do very well. Tiger has not looked very good lately and neither has Phil Mickelson. They are both great players and stars of the game, but they lack the stats to get our nod this year. Here is a list of some of the players who may be ready to wear the green jacket this year. Bubba Watson has been playing great lately and he has a very versatile game. Matt Kuchar has been sharp and consistent. These golfers are our top two picks. Nick Watney, Luke Donald, Rory Sabbitini, Zach Johnson, Aaron Baddeley, Hunter Mahan, Dustin Johnson, Vijay Singh, Johnattan Vegas, K.J. Choi, Martin Laird, D.A Points and Brandt Snedeker are also on our radar.

The entire article is here.

Monday, April 4, 2011

NCAA Men's Basketball Championship 2011

Thank you for the kind notes we have received about our NY Times article on the Final Four, championship characteristics, and "quant fact" predictions. 

Our "quant fact" traits remain the same in terms of which team is predicted to win the 2011 NCAA Men's Championship: UConn has more factors on its side (so our blog's "official prediction" will be UConn) -- although Butler has shown what experience and coaching can do!

Carlton Chin, CFA, is chief investment officer and founder of alternative asset fund manager Adamah / CARAT Capital.  Jay Granat, PhD, is a psychotherapist, sports psychologist, and founder of StayIntheZone.com.   

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Quant Facts: Prediction Update

With Connecticut and Butler advancing to the NCAA Finals, that brings our book's blog's performance in published quant fact predictions to 22-11.  It is notable these methods (quantifying concepts of sports psychology) regularly predict underdogs and upsets to win sporting events (for instance, UConn in the last night's March Madness semifinal game.).

One reader pointed out that the factors in last year's NY Times article for the Final Four correctly predicted each of the semi-final and final March Madness games (all 3 games) correctly.  

Combining concepts of sports psychology with quantitative analysis can be a powerful tool.    

Saturday, April 2, 2011

Final Four Factors - 2011

Here is an excerpt from our analysis of the Final Four of the 2011 Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament.

In our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological and Mathematical Method,” we analyzed the championship games or series of the N.F.L., N.B.A., Major League Baseball and N.H.L., and the major finals in golf and tennis, to identify championship characteristics. Based on that research, we are again focusing on the factors that might help predict the winner of the N.C.A.A. men’s basketball tournament. Last year’s analysis correctly predicted that Duke would win the championship, and that Butler would be a threat to Michigan State in the semifinals.

The championship factors and quant facts point to Connecticut and Butler advancing to the final.  These predictions will count for our blog's official "quant fact" selections.  We'll also clarify our quant fact prediction for the 2011 March Madness champion before Monday's Championship Game.

Read more here: