Friday, June 21, 2013

MacroSports Conference - July 6-7, 2013

If you are in Las Vegas -- or would like to head there -- for the July 4th weekend, check out:

MacroSports Conference 
A Conference on Macroeconomics and Sports Analytics.

Several big names are scheduled to speak -- including Nate Silver, as well as some big names in the poker world.  Check it out:

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

2013 Stanley Cup Finals (NY Times)

Here's an excerpt from our analysis in the New York Times.  

 Based on this research, we focused on several championship characteristics that might predict the winner of this year’s Stanley Cup finals.  We also applied a Monte Carlo simulation to compute series probabilities for the finals.

In particular, we focused on factors related to sports psychology like big game experience, leadership and consistency. These concepts have proven to be common themes across all sports we have studied.

Big Game Experience: Across all sports, we have found a meaningful relationship between big game experience and winning championships.  In our work, big game experience is measured by appearances in finals over the past three years. In the N.H.L., the team with an edge in this area has gone 11-2 (84.6 percent) in Stanley Cup finals series over the past 33 years.  Both the Blackhawks and Bruins have made finals appearances over the past three years. Edge: Even

Read the complete article here: 

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Who Will Win the 2013 NBA Finals?

Here's an excerpt from our analysis that was published in the New York Times.  Please click on the link below for the entire article.

Based on this research, we focused on several championship characteristics that might help predict the winner of the N.B.A. finals. We also applied a Monte Carlo simulation similar to methods used in our previous articles to compute series probabilities for the NBA finals between the Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs.

Big Game Experience: Over the past 23 years, the team with more finals appearances over the previous three years has 12 of 15 (80.0%) in N.B.A. finals. The Miami Heat are in their third consecutive finals, winning the title last year. Edge: Miami.

...We ran a Monte Carlo simulation based on our factors and the home-away schedule for this year’s N.B.A. finals. The simulation says that Miami has a 71.2 percent chance of winning, with the following probabilities:

Please click below for the probabilities and the whole article.