Saturday, July 10, 2010

World Cup Final

Our factors for the Semi-final match-ups were 1-1. Germany played a tough match but fell 1-0 to Spain. The Netherlands, with their "big game experience" were able to defeat Uruguay -- and move into the World Cup Finals against defending European Champion, Spain.

Congrats to both Spain and the Netherlands, as well as other teams that accomplished their goals.

Factors favoring Spain
  • Higher-rated team
  • Defense: has won several tight World Cup games by the score of 1-0. Has not given up a goal in the knock-out rounds, winning three consecutive shut-outs.
  • Big game experience: while Spain has not made it to the World Cup Final Four recently, they are the defending European Champions, so they DO have some big game experience.
Factors favoring the Netherlands
  • Big game experience: the Netherlands has made it to the World Cup Final Four more recently.
  • Offense: the Netherlands have scored 2 or more goals in each of their knock-out round games. They also scored 5 goals in their 3 round-robin games (outscoring their opponents 5-1). Their 12 goals make them second only to Germany in the 2010 World Cup.

Who Will Win the Big Game?

Our factors lean towards Spain very slightly. This should be a good, tight, game. Note, however, in such a low-scoring sport, and with only one game for the championship, anything could happen.

Book: Who Will Win the Big Game?

Check out our book "Who Will Win the Big Game?" -- on analytics applied to concepts of sport psychology.

Carlton J. Chin, CFA, is an MIT-trained engineer who likes to apply math and statistics to sports and the financial markets. Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist who has worked with Olympic athletes.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

World Cup tidbits

We thought we would apply some of our same analysis for the World Cup. Here are some tidbits for this year's World Cup Final Four:
  • Over the past three World Cups (WC), Germany has reached two WC Final Fours.
  • The Netherlands has reached one Final Four.
  • Of the Final Four, Spain is rated as the best team.
Across all the major sports we studied, "Big Game" experience has proven to be more important than expected, and this factor alone can often predict the winners of championships. Congratulations to each of the Final Four participants: and GO Germany!