Showing posts with label Super Bowl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super Bowl. Show all posts

Saturday, March 1, 2014

Quant Facts now 37-23 (61.7%)

With the Super Bowl quant fact prediction of Seattle, our record for quant fact predictions improves to 37-23 (61.7%).  This shows the power of sports analytics and quantifying concepts of sports psychology. The results are particularly strong because we sometimes pick underdogs and can find value where other analysts may not be looking.



Carlton Chin is a quant fact researcher who enjoys applying math to everything from sports analytics to the financial markets. Thoughtful analysis can result in knowledge discovery and help to explain the world around us. Carlton has been a contributor to the New York Times and Rant Sports, and has also been featured in the Wall Street Journal and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and Jay has been named one of America's top mental gurus, coaches athletes of all levels, and has appeared in a variety of media outlets, including Good Morning America, ESPN and the New York Times.  

Saturday, February 1, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII Analytics (2014)

As you can tell, we enjoy sports -- and particularly playoffs and championship games.  Here are various sports analytics we have performed for this year's 2014 Super Bowl.  We looked at everything from "Wins Above Average" and Monte Carlo simulations to sports psychology and Pythagorean approaches.

 Sports Analytics approaches

Sports Psychology + Stats approach

If you (or your friends) are in those Square Pools -- this could be interesting



Carlton Chin, CFA, holds both undergraduate and graduate degrees from MIT and enjoys applying numbers to everything from sports analytics to the financial markets. He is a fund manager and quant researcher. He has been featured in the NY TimesRantSports, Wall St. Journal,SeekingAlpha & Financial Trader.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America's Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. A former university professor, he has authored several books on sport psychology -- and has appeared on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Who Will Win the 2014 Super Bowl?

Here is this year's "Who Will Win" article for the Super Bowl.


Together with Dr. Jay Granat, a psychotherapist, I studied factors related to sports psychology to help predict the winner of the Super Bowl. The results are based on every Super Bowl ever played since the first Super Bowl in January 1967.

This year’s Super Bowl between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks is a classic matchup between offense and defense.

Read more here for the Quant Fact predictions at http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/30/2014-super-bowl-who-will-win-the-big-game/?3pt1yM4RgIXAaI26.99



If you are in a Super Bowl Square Pool, check out our updated odds for this year's Super Bowl.
http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/27/2014-super-bowl-square-pool-probabilities-by-quarter/

Monday, January 27, 2014

Super Bowl Square Pool Odds, by Quarter (2014)

Are you in one of those popular Super Bowl Square Pools?  Here are the probabilities of your numbers winning, for the final score.  In the link below, we also compute the probabilities for the square pool winner for each quarter.  

Quant facts
Square Pool Probabilities - Final Score

If you are participating in a square pool (where only the last digit for each team counts), you will be randomly assigned a digit for each team, such as the Seattle Seahawks (or NFC) 3, and the Denver Broncos (or AFC) 4. Many fans have an idea of what numbers are “good.” Here, we compute square pool probabilities, or odds, based on historical results by quarter.

Most people know that numbers like 7, 3, and 0 are good, due to the key numbers associated with touchdowns and field goals. But how good are these numbers? And what about the 4, 6, or 1? Several years ago, I computed the probabilities of the digits winning for each quarter – based on every Super Bowl ever played. The results were published by the New York Times, in their Super Bowl Sunday spread print edition.


Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/27/2014-super-bowl-square-pool-probabilities-by-quarter/?YhoBfZegjGmcc7rJ.99


Carlton Chin is a fund manager, quant researcher, and sports analytics contributor to Rant Sports.  He has also contributed to the New York Times, Wall St. Journal, and ESPN.  Don La Fronz is a financial advisor and originated the idea for this piece.

Saturday, February 2, 2013

Super Bowl Sims and Championship Characteristics - 2013

Here is an excerpt from our analysis and numerical simulations of this year's Super Bowl, between San Francisco and Baltimore, which is published in the New York Times.  Our quant facts have been correct more than 60% of the time.



Consistency: Ball control remains one of the more important offensive indicators studied in both professional and college football. The team with a better running game, as measured by average yards per rush, has won 57.8 percent of the Super Bowls. The 49ers averaged 5.1 yards per rush this season, compared to 4.3 for the Ravens. Edge: San Francisco.

Monte Carlo Simulations: Probabilistic models like Monte Carlo techniques can be used to solve complicated problems. Similar to our analysis for the B.C.S. national title game between Alabama and Notre Dame, we used regular-season statistics in combination with our championship factors to simulate thousands of football games between San Francisco and Baltimore.

Read more here:
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/02/keeping-score-what-stats-and-simulations-say-about-the-super-bowl/ 

In addition, our popular analysis of Super Bowl Square Odds -- by Quarter -- is published here:
http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-917541

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Super Bowl Square Probabilities - updated through 1/29/13

by Carlton Chin, Don La Fronz & Paul Lacher

A few years ago, we took a look at the probabilities of the digits winning at the end of each quarter – based on every Super Bowl ever played.  The results were published by the New York Times, here. Below is the entire link:


This year, we refreshed the results to reflect the NFL’s adoption of the two-point conversion since 1994.  We used every Super Bowl – along with Conference Championship games – since 1994.   Similar to three years ago, we computed the probabilities, or odds, at the end of each quarter.  Our findings include information on which team was favored to win the game.   

So, what numbers are good?  Here are some tidbits:
  • For the team that is favored (San Francisco, this year), the best numbers to have for the final score are: 1, 4, and 7.  These numbers each have a 17.9% chance of hitting, based on our data sample. 
  • The best numbers for the underdog’s final score (Baltimore) are 4, 7 and 0 – in that order.
  • The best overall numbers, to win at the end of any quarter – favorite or underdog – are 0, 7, 4, and 3, in that order. 
  • The 0 and 3 are particularly good to have at the end of the first quarter and first half.
  • By the end of the game, the 4 and 7 are the best.
  • The worst numbers are the 2 and 5, but by the end of the game, every number has won in our sample size, since 1994.  
Note that if there is a 0.0% in a given square, it does not mean that this event is impossible.  It just means that during our sample size, that set of numbers has not occurred for the given quarter.  Please keep an eye out for our “Who Will Win” analysis and Monte Carlo simulation of this year’s Super Bowl. Enjoy the game!

(Please click on the charts to enlarge.)

First Quarter - Probabilities


First Half - Probabilities

Third Quarter - Probabilities

Final Score - Probabilities

Special thanks to Don La Fronz who thought of the idea and helped devise the methodology -- and to Paul Lacher, who helped to put this year's article together.  Carlton has been good friends with Don and Paul for many years.

Don La Fronz is a financial advisor at Pell Wealth Partners.  Paul Lacher is a Wall Street veteran with over 20 years in financial services working with brokerage firms, banks, mutual fund companies and transfer agents.  Born and raised in Brooklyn, NY, Paul is a lifelong sports fan who still counts down the days until pitchers and catchers report for spring training -- and wonders, at times, if the NY Jets will ever win another Super Bowl.  Carlton Chin, CFA, is a managing director at Price Asset Management and principal at Adamah/CARAT Capital, specializing in portfolio strategy, quant research, and alternative investment strategies.

This article and the Final Score chart is also here:

Saturday, February 4, 2012

Super Bowl Info & Stats (2012)

Our "Who Will Win" analysis -- and our official "quant fact" predictions -- point to the Patriots. Here's a link to our analysis published by the New York Times:
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/04/keeping-score-championship-factors-for-giants-and-patriots/

We put together some stats two years ago -- and these numbers are still interesting. Please check it out.
http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2010/02/super-bowl-quant-facts.html


ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Carlton Chin, CFA, is an MIT-trained quant who enjoys applying numbers to everything from sports analytics to the financial markets. He is a portfolio manager specializing in Computer Aided Research & Advanced Technology (CARAT), strategic asset allocation, and quant trading systems. Has been featured in the NY Times, Wall St. Journal, SeekingAlpha & Financial Trader.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America's Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. A former university professor, he has authored several books on sport psychology -- and has appeared on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.



Who Will Win Super Bowl XLVI? (2012: Giants vs. Patriots)

With an eye toward quantitative analysis that attempts to identify factors that are as independent from one another as possible, five key statistical factors were identified. These statistics are related to principles of sports psychology like experience, leadership, error control, confidence and consistency. With the Giants’ surge late in the season and during the playoffs, we also looked at momentum.


...


...  how do we account for the Giants’ momentum? We studied teams that reached the Super Bowl with less impressive regular-season records. Since 1990, when the N.F.L. went to its current playoff format, teams with 11 wins or fewer during the regular season have gone 4-7 in the Super Bowl. This includes Green Bay’s win last year and the Giants’ championship from four years ago; both teams had a 10-6 record during the regular season.
___

Long-story short: our championship factors point to New England.  We'll highlight additional Super Bowl stats by Sunday morning.


Read more here:
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/04/keeping-score-championship-factors-for-giants-and-patriots/#more-98635

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Super Bowl Square Pools (Feb 2012)

The New York Times published our popular article on Square Pools in their Super Bowl Sunday spread two years ago. If you are in a square pool, the probabilities are interesting. To use the charts, find your numbers for each quarter on the grid -- and remember that Indy was favored two years ago (New England is favored this year).
To see how various combinations of numbers have fared, based on every quarter of the past 43 Super Bowls, we computed the probability for each square to win at the end of each quarter. To inform our calculations, we also took into account which team was favored to win.

Read more here:
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/07/how-to-spot-a-winner-in-a-squares-pool/

We'll have our "quant fact" predictions for the Super Bowl out either Friday or Saturday.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Quant Facts now 26-16

The NY Giants defeated the SF 49ers, 20-17 in overtime, dropping our quant fact predictions to 26-16 in published plays.  It was a great win for the "big play" Giants -- and conversely, a difficult loss for the 49ers.  It will be a long off-season for San Francisco and Kyle Williams, who had two fumbles on punt returns (as he substituted for the 49ers' regular punt returner, injured Ted Ginn, Jr.).

During the regular season, San Francisco played a very clean brand of football (in terms of turnovers), tying an NFL record with just 10 giveaways -- including none on special teams.  However, the New York Giants have been playing great "big play" football and are peaking at the right time.  The (bad) breaks caught up to the 49ers at a bad time for San Francisco.

The Giants now advance to the Super Bowl, where they will face the Patriots in a rematch of SB XLII four years ago.  Stay tuned for more Super Bowl info...

Monday, February 7, 2011

Super Bowl, Championship Factors & Quant Facts Recap

Congratulations to the Green Bay Packers and their legions of fans.

Green Bay's Super Bowl victory drops our book's blog's record to 20-11 in "quant fact" predictions, still impressive considering that our championship factors sometimes make interesting predictions (like picking the underdog) based on a quantitative analysis of concepts of sports psychology.

As usual, even at a high level of competition, errors are often the deciding factors in championships.  It is notable that this is true not only for athletes, but success in many activities.  Athletes need to perform at a high level of competition while minimizing mistakes.  Some of the traits associated with "minimizing errors" include championship characteristics such as consistency factors, experience, and confidence.  

That is, players and teams that are experienced, confident, and good at the more "consistent" tasks -- will tend to make fewer mistakes and prevail.  The "quant facts" we have studied with respect to sports psychology help to "put the wind at our backs" -- and can be useful characteristics for any sports orgranization -- at any level.

In Super Bowl XLV, we predicted that the Pittsburgh Steelers would prevail based on a variety of championship traits.  Our factors showed that play-in and play-out, the Steelers would tend to control the game better -- and would tend to have fewer mistakes.  However, the game needs to be played out -- and in Super Bowl XLV, the Green Bay Packers made fewer mistakes -- and won the big game.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

Super Bowl Stats

These numbers are not related to sport psychology (check our NY Times article out for that), but with the Super Bowl coming up, we thought you might find these stats interesting.

Will the Game be Close?

We've been spoiled lately, because many of the recent Super Bowls have been close and exciting games.  In particular, 4 of the last 7 games have been decided by 4 points or less.  

And, due to the nature of the game (Conference Champions are competing!), many fans expect close games. However, do you remember the blowouts we've had in the past? Let's take a look at what the past Super Bowl numbers say:
  • About two-thirds of Super Bowls are decided by 10 points or more, and
  • About 50% of the games have been decided by 14 points or more.
How Many Points Might be Scored?

Here's a look at the average total points scored in the Super Bowl, by half, and in total. We looked at three sets of games: every Super Bowl, games since 1983 and games since 1994 (the years listed in the charts are based on the regular season; this includes every Super Bowl through Feb. 2009, excludes last year).

1st Half
2nd Half
Total
All Super Bowls
21.3
24.1
45.4
83-08
23.6
26.9
50.5
94-08
21.6
27.3
48.9


How do Underdogs perform in the Super Bowl?

Recent underdogs have performed well in the Super Bowl:
  • 3-0 in the last three Super Bowls,
  • 7-2 in the last 9 Super Bowls, and
  • 9-4 in the last 13 Super Bowls.
However, if we look at every Super Bowl played, the underdogs are:
  • 20-21-3 in forty-four Super Bowl games. Slightly subpar, with 3 pushes.
  • When the point spread is 5 points or less (like this year), the underdog is 9-8.

Super Bowl Square Pool Probabilities (NY Times)


If you are in a Square Pool, the New York Times published our Super Bowl Square Pool Probabilities last year (both online and "in print" on Super Bowl Sunday).  The charts show the probability of winning a Square Pool by quarter, based on the underdog and favorite.  To use the probability charts this season:
  • replace last year's underdog, the Saints with the Steelers, and 
  • replace the favorite, the Colts, with the Packers.  

Then, look up the numbers you received to view your chances of winning any particular quarter. 

Special thanks to Don LaFronz, a financial advisor and good friend, who originated the idea and helped devise the methodology.

Carlton Chin is a graduate of MIT and a fund manager at Adamah / CARAT Capital.  Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayIntheZone.com.  

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Super Bowl Quant Facts & Sports Psychology (NY Times)

Here is an excerpt from our article, picked up by the NY Times, where we try to quantify key concepts of sports psychology to study methods of building and developing winning teams and champions.

In our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game?,” we studied factors related to sports psychology that might help predict the winner of the Super Bowl. The results are based on every Super Bowl starting in January 1967, or forty-four games. With an eye towards key concepts of sport psychology, as well as statistical analysis that attempts to identify factors that are as independent from one another as possible, five key statistical factors were identified. These statistics are related to principles of sport psychology like experience, leadership, error control and consistency. So important are these concepts to winning championships that they have proven to be common themes across all major sports. Last year these factors accurately predicted a Saints’ victory over the Colts.


Jay Granat and Carlton Chin study and quantify championship characteristics related to sport psychology.  They are particularly interested in qualities that are more readily coached, taught, and practiced.

The entire article can be found at NYTimes.com: (entire link below)
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/keeping-score-which-stats-can-predict-a-super-bowl-winner/

With Djokovich winning the championship at the Australian Open, our blog's "quant fact" predictions have compiled a 20-10 record -- often picking underdogs to win major championships.

We'll have more Super Bowl info on our blog over the next few days.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Super Bowl Recap

Thanks for the emails and correspondence from readers who found our blog from the Wall Street Journal and New York Times articles. People seemed to enjoy our article on the Super Bowl Square Pools in the NY Times' Super Bowl Sunday spread:

as well as our Super Bowl information:

One of our friends pointed out that including the College Football title game (1-0) and Australian Open (9-4), predictions on our blog have gone a combined 11-4. Not that we're counting (well, I guess we are...).

Carlton Chin and Jay Granat study principles of sport psychology and are particularly interested in key factors that can help teams and athletes improve -- and that are more easily coached and practiced.




Saturday, February 6, 2010

Super Bowl Square Pool Probabilities

We thought it would be fun to look at the chances of winning the Super Bowl Square Pools. Special thanks go to a good friend, Don LaFronz, who thought of the idea and helped devise the methodology.

The New York Times published the probabilities we worked up in their Super Bowl Sunday spread -- as well as online. Here's a link to the online article.

Carlton Chin, a fund manager and MIT graduate, and Jay Granat, psychotherapist, are authors of “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method.”
Don LaFronz, a financial advisor, originated the idea and helped devise the methodology.

Super Bowl Quant Facts

These stats are not related to sport psychology, but with the "biggest of the big games" coming up tomorrow, we thought you might find some of these tidbits interesting:

Will the Game be Close?

We've been spoiled lately, because many of the recent Super Bowls have been close and exciting games.
  • 4 of the last 6 games have been decided by 4 points or less, and
  • 5 of the last 8 games have been decided by 4 points or less.
And, due to the nature of the game (Conference Champions are competing!), many fans expect close games. However, do you remember the blowouts we've had in the past? Let's take a look at what the past Super Bowl numbers say:
  • About two-thirds of Super Bowls are decided by 10 points or more, and
  • About 50% of the games have been decided by 14 points or more.
These Offenses are Strong: How Many Points Might be Scored?

At first glance, the expected total points scored in this game seemed high, but when we looked at recent Super Bowl total scores, we thought otherwise. Here's a look at the average total points scored in the Super Bowl, by half, and in total. We looked at three sets of games: every Super Bowl, games since 1983 and games since 1994 (the years listed in the charts are based on the regular season; this includes every Super Bowl through Feb. 2009).

1st Half

2nd Half

Total

All Super Bowls

21.3

24.1

45.4

83-08

23.6

26.9

50.5

94-08

21.6

27.3

48.9



How do Underdogs perform in the Super Bowl?

Recent underdogs have performed well in the Super Bowl:
  • 2-0 in the last two Super Bowls,
  • 6-2 in the last 8 Super Bowls, and
  • 8-4 in the last 12 Super Bowls.
However, if we look at every Super Bowl played, the underdogs are:
  • 19-21-3 in forty-three Super Bowl games. Slightly subpar, with 3 pushes.
  • When the point spread is 5 points or less (like this year), the underdog is 8-8.

Who Will Win the Super Bowl? PART 2 (2010)

Some of our readers asked us to be more definitive about who we really like in the Super Bowl. In our previous post on this topic, we had 3 factors in favor of the Saints (leadership/errors, confidence, and consistency-rushing game), and 2 factors in favor of the Colts (experience and consistency-defense).

If we use some additional factors from our research, that also are correlated with winning the Super Bowl, in total, we have 6 "sport psychology stat" factors favoring the Saints, and 3 favoring the Colts.
  • Sacks - a defensive category that is close, but favors the Saints.
  • Takeaway-Giveaways - the Saints have been strong in this category this season.
  • Defense (Fewer Passing Yards / Attempt) - a defensive category that favors the Colts.
  • Fewer Fumbles - weirdly enough, this is a negative indicator. Some analysts have said that fumbles are "luck of the draw," more of a random event, as opposed to QB interceptions, that are an important part of a QB's skill set. Perhaps this leads to teams focusing on holding on to the ball -- but net-net -- this factor favors the Saints.
Thus, we now have 6 factors favoring the Saints, and 3 factors favoring the Colts


Jay Granat, founder of www.stayinthezone.com, and Carlton Chin study and quantify championship characteristics related to sport psychology. We are particularly interested in qualities that are more readily coached, taught, and practiced.

Who Will Win the Super Bowl? A Look at Sport Psychology & Stats (2010)

Based on research from the book, “Who Will Win the Big Game,” nineteen factors were studied that might help predict the winner of the Super Bowl. The results are based on every Super Bowl from Super Bowl I in January 1967 to Super Bowl XLIII in 2009, or forty-three games. The authors have been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, New York Times and CNN Radio.
With an eye towards key concepts of sport psychology, as well as statistical analysis that attempts to identify factors that are as independent from one another as possible, five key statistical factors were identified. These statistics are related to principles of sport psychology such as experience, leadership, error control, and consistency. So important are these concepts to winning championships that they have proven to be common themes across all sports.
EXPERIENCE
The team with more Super Bowl experience, as measured by Super Bowl appearances over the past three years, has won 63.6% of the Super Bowls. Although this may seem obvious, it's interesting to put a number on this concept. In fact, the 63.6% success rate of “Big Game Experience” in the NFL underperforms that of other sports partly because the Buffalo Bills had difficulties, going winless in four straight Super Bowl appearances from 1991 to 1994.
With a Super Bowl appearance in 2007, the Colts pick up experience points. Some people favor the Colts mainly due to this one key factor.
DEFENSE
Most sports fans believe that "defense wins championships." Research shows that defense is, indeed, a crucial ingredient to winning the Super Bowl. A large majority of Super Bowls (68.3%) has been won by the team with the better defense, measured by points against. The Colts’ defense ranked number 8 this year, while the Saints’ defense was ranked number 20.
LEADERSHIP and MINIMIZING ERRORS
Quarterbacks, as the teams’ offensive leaders, are major factors in determining championships, but not necessarily in the way you might expect. Quarterback interceptions during the regular season are great predictors of Super Bowl success, but quarterback rating is not. Champions need high-level performance, but with few errors and mistakes. The team with fewer interceptions during the regular season has won 59% of the Super Bowls. This factor favors the Saints and their 12 interceptions, compared to the Colts’ 19 interceptions.
RUSHING GAME
Interestingly, rushing yards per rush was the most important offensive indicator studied. The team with a better running game, as measured by rushing yards per rush, has won 59.5% of the Super Bowls. The Saints averaged 4.5 yards per rush this season, compared to 3.5 for the Colts.
CONFIDENCE
The team that has achieved more double-digit wins during the regular season and including the playoffs has gone on to win 59.0% of Super Bowls. This category favors the Saints, with 10 double-digit wins, compared to 8 for the Colts. The Saints should be very confident as they prepare for the Super Bowl.
CONSISTENCY
Research has shown that consistency measures are often more important to winning championships than the more exciting events that each particular sport has to offer. For example, defense and rushing yards/rush are more consistent parts of the game, as opposed to long TD passes and glitzy quarterback ratings.

Super Bowl Championship Characteristics
Factor
Factor Winning %
Colts
Saints
Favors
Defense – Points Against per Game (Rank)
68.3%
19.2 (8)
21.3 (20)
Colts
Big Game Experience
63.6%
2007 Super Bowl Appearance
-
Colts
Offense – Rushing Yards per Rush (Rank)
59.5%
3.5 (30)
4.5 (7)
Saints
Fewer Interceptions
59.0%
19
12
Saints
Double-Digit Wins
59.0%
8
10
Saints
These are the five most important characteristics identified by an analysis of psychological and mathematical factors. Factor Winning % is that factor’s success at predicting the Super Bowl winner. Results are based on 43 Super Bowls, going back to Super Bowl I.
WHO WILL WIN THE BIG GAME?
Many people favor the Colts in this year’s Super Bowl. Fans remember recent performance, and in particular, the Conference Championship games. However, data shows that this factor, as measured by margin of victory, in the Conference Championships, has very little correlation with winning the Super Bowl.
So who will win the big game? Will it be the Colts with their playoff experience and superior defense? Or will it be the Saints with their leadership, consistent running game, and confidence? In this article, we highlighted five factors - three of which favor the Saints. However, two of the strongest factors favor the Colts. PART 2 of this article has been posted.
Enjoy the big game!