Super Bowl Square Pool Odds by Quarter, UPDATED!

Do you have your Super Bowl Square Pool box yet? The Super Bowl kicks off in less than two weeks — and many people are getting in on the popular 10x10 Square Pool. The great thing about these pools is that it is totally random, so if you are watching the game, you have a “fair” rooting interest.

We will be coming out with our Who Will Win article for this year’s Super Bowl soon!

Read more here:  

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/2022-super-bowl-square-pool-odds-updated-for-recent-rules-c3bde1d372f7

Super Bowl Articles

 Probabilities of Square Pool Numbers: 

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/2021-super-bowl-square-pool-odds-by-quarter-fd87c5cbccf0 

"Who Will Win" article

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/who-will-win-the-big-game-super-bowl-lv-2021-d18beae17043 

Enjoy the Big Game!

Super Bowl Articles - 2020

Here are links to our 2020 Super Bowl Articles. 

Do you have your Super Bowl Square Pool box yet? The Super Bowl kicks off on an interesting date for number nerds this coming Sunday: on 02/02/2020!

Read more here: 
https://sportsquants.kinja.com/super-bowl-square-pool-probabilities-by-quarter-updat-1841264836


Over the years, Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, and I have studied championship factors related to sports psychology to predict the winners of major championships. Much of our research has focused on quantifying concepts such as consistency and minimizing errors.

Read more here:
https://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-will-win-the-big-game-2020-super-bowl-1841415370


We'll update our Quant Facts prediction record before March Madness begins!  

Super Bowl Square Pool Odds (By Quarter) - 2018

We published our popular article on Super Bowl Square Pools.  Read more here:

https://sportsquants.kinja.com/2018-super-bowl-square-pool-odds-by-quarter-1822447937

And please visit out blog in a few days -- for our Super Bowl quant fact prediction!  Thank you for reading.

Super Bowl Square Pool Odds by Quarter - 2017

Our popular Super Bowl Square Pool odds is updated here:

http://quantfacts.sportsblog.com/posts/31841052/2017-super-bowl-square-pool-odds---by-quarter.html


Please visit this blog or our Quant Facts blog for our 2017 Super Bowl prediction!

Quant Facts Update (45-27 = 62.5%) + Super Bowl Articles

We correctly predicted the winner of the 2015 MLB World Series, increasing our published "quant fact" results to 45-27, or 62.5%.  It is noteworthy that these results are not versus a point spread (against the spread) -- but based on straight winners.  However, we regularly predict that underdogs win championships.

Our 2016 NFL Super Bowl articles have been published.  Please check them out:

• Who Will Win the 2016 Super Bowl?  The results may surprise you!  
• Popular Super Bowl Square Pool Odds article: what are your chances of winning your office's square pool?  We compute the odds of winning by the quarter.  

Carlton Chin, CFA, is a fund manager and quantitative researcher focused on the financial markets and sports analytics. He has been quoted by the New York Times and Wall St. Journal and has worked on sports analytics with sports organizations. 

Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayIntheZone.com.

Super Bowl and NFL Articles

The big game is coming up.  Here is a list of our recent NFL articles:

• Who Will Win the Big Game?  Since our book was published, our quant fact predictions have been correct 63% of the time while sometimes picking underdogs.  This article's prediction will count in our blog's official "quant fact" record.  
• Super Bowl Square Pool probabilities.  Once your square pool numbers have been drawn, our popular article shows the odds of you winning each quarter.  
• Deflategate article.  Interesting take on how numbers can sometimes be deceiving.  

Carlton Chin, CFA, is a fund manager and portfolio strategist who applies quant analytics to the financial markets and sports.  He has been quoted by the New York Times, Wall St. Journal and ESPN -- and has worked with sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings for Draft 3.0.      

2015 Super Bowl Square Pool Odds (By Quarter)

The Super Bowl is fast-approaching – along with interest in the popular Super Bowl Square Pools. If you are participating in a Square Pool (where only the last digit for each team counts), you are randomly assigned a digit for each team, such as New England 3, and Seattle 4. Many fans have an idea of what numbers are “good.” Here, we compute Super Bowl Square Pool probabilities by quarter, based on recent historical results.

Read more here:

http://quantfacts.sportsblog.com/posts/1688009/2015_super_bowl_square_pools__by_quarter_.html

Super Bowl Square Pool Odds, by Quarter (2014)

Are you in one of those popular Super Bowl Square Pools?  Here are the probabilities of your numbers winning, for the final score.  In the link below, we also compute the probabilities for the square pool winner for each quarter.  

Square Pool Probabilities - Final Score

If you are participating in a square pool (where only the last digit for each team counts), you will be randomly assigned a digit for each team, such as the Seattle Seahawks (or NFC) 3, and the Denver Broncos (or AFC) 4. Many fans have an idea of what numbers are “good.” Here, we compute square pool probabilities, or odds, based on historical results by quarter.

Most people know that numbers like 7, 3, and 0 are good, due to the key numbers associated with touchdowns and field goals. But how good are these numbers? And what about the 4, 6, or 1? Several years ago, I computed the probabilities of the digits winning for each quarter – based on every Super Bowl ever played. The results were published by the New York Times, in their Super Bowl Sunday spread print edition.

Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/27/2014-super-bowl-square-pool-probabilities-by-quarter/?YhoBfZegjGmcc7rJ.99


Carlton Chin is a fund manager, quant researcher, and sports analytics contributor to Rant Sports.  He has also contributed to the New York Times, Wall St. Journal, and ESPN.  Don La Fronz is a financial advisor and originated the idea for this piece.

Super Bowl Square Probabilities - updated through 1/29/13

by Carlton Chin, Don La Fronz & Paul Lacher

A few years ago, we took a look at the probabilities of the digits winning at the end of each quarter – based on every Super Bowl ever played.  The results were published by the New York Times, here. Below is the entire link:

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/07/how-to-spot-a-winner-in-a-squares-pool/

This year, we refreshed the results to reflect the NFL’s adoption of the two-point conversion since 1994.  We used every Super Bowl – along with Conference Championship games – since 1994.   Similar to three years ago, we computed the probabilities, or odds, at the end of each quarter.  Our findings include information on which team was favored to win the game.   

So, what numbers are good?  Here are some tidbits:

• For the team that is favored (San Francisco, this year), the best numbers to have for the final score are: 1, 4, and 7.  These numbers each have a 17.9% chance of hitting, based on our data sample. 
• The best numbers for the underdog’s final score (Baltimore) are 4, 7 and 0 – in that order.
• The best overall numbers, to win at the end of any quarter – favorite or underdog – are 0, 7, 4, and 3, in that order. 
• The 0 and 3 are particularly good to have at the end of the first quarter and first half.
• By the end of the game, the 4 and 7 are the best.
• The worst numbers are the 2 and 5, but by the end of the game, every number has won in our sample size, since 1994.  

Note that if there is a 0.0% in a given square, it does not mean that this event is impossible.  It just means that during our sample size, that set of numbers has not occurred for the given quarter.  Please keep an eye out for our “Who Will Win” analysis and Monte Carlo simulation of this year’s Super Bowl. Enjoy the game!

(Please click on the charts to enlarge.)

First Quarter - Probabilities

First Half - Probabilities

Third Quarter - Probabilities

Final Score - Probabilities

Special thanks to Don La Fronz who thought of the idea and helped devise the methodology -- and to Paul Lacher, who helped to put this year's article together.  Carlton has been good friends with Don and Paul for many years.

Don La Fronz is a financial advisor at Pell Wealth Partners.  Paul Lacher is a Wall Street veteran with over 20 years in financial services working with brokerage firms, banks, mutual fund companies and transfer agents.  Born and raised in Brooklyn, NY, Paul is a lifelong sports fan who still counts down the days until pitchers and catchers report for spring training -- and wonders, at times, if the NY Jets will ever win another Super Bowl.  Carlton Chin, CFA, is a managing director at Price Asset Management and principal at Adamah/CARAT Capital, specializing in portfolio strategy, quant research, and alternative investment strategies.

This article and the Final Score chart is also here:

http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-917541

Super Bowl Square Pools (Feb 2012)

The New York Times published our popular article on Square Pools in their Super Bowl Sunday spread two years ago. If you are in a square pool, the probabilities are interesting. To use the charts, find your numbers for each quarter on the grid -- and remember that Indy was favored two years ago (New England is favored this year).

To see how various combinations of numbers have fared, based on every quarter of the past 43 Super Bowls, we computed the probability for each square to win at the end of each quarter. To inform our calculations, we also took into account which team was favored to win.

Read more here:
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/07/how-to-spot-a-winner-in-a-squares-pool/

We'll have our "quant fact" predictions for the Super Bowl out either Friday or Saturday.

Super Bowl Square Pool Probabilities (NY Times)

If you are in a Square Pool, the New York Times published our Super Bowl Square Pool Probabilities last year (both online and "in print" on Super Bowl Sunday).  The charts show the probability of winning a Square Pool by quarter, based on the underdog and favorite.  To use the probability charts this season:

• replace last year's underdog, the Saints with the Steelers, and 
• replace the favorite, the Colts, with the Packers.  

Then, look up the numbers you received to view your chances of winning any particular quarter. 

Special thanks to Don LaFronz, a financial advisor and good friend, who originated the idea and helped devise the methodology.

Carlton Chin is a graduate of MIT and a fund manager at Adamah / CARAT Capital.  Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayIntheZone.com.  

Super Bowl Square Pool Probabilities

We thought it would be fun to look at the chances of winning the Super Bowl Square Pools. Special thanks go to a good friend, Don LaFronz, who thought of the idea and helped devise the methodology.

The New York Times published the probabilities we worked up in their Super Bowl Sunday spread -- as well as online. Here's a link to the online article.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/07/how-to-spot-a-winner-in-a-squares-pool/

Carlton Chin, a fund manager and MIT graduate, and Jay Granat, psychotherapist, are authors of “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method.”

Don LaFronz, a financial advisor, originated the idea and helped devise the methodology.