A Tournament of Champs: The GOAT of Men's Olympic Hockey

 With the 2022 Winter Olympic Games approaching, we present Part 2 of our series of articles on which Olympic Men’s Hockey team is the greatest of all time (GOAT). In Part 1 (2017) of our work, we used analytics and statistics to study the best Olympic hockey teams in history.

Which is the Greatest Olympic Hockey Team of All-Time Based on Stats and Computer Simulations?

Co-authored by Carlton Chin, founder of CARAT / Adamah Capital. Carlton, a graduate of MIT, is a quant researcher…

www.huffpost.com

In Part 2 of the series, we perform computer simulations to run tournaments of the best Olympic teams in history. Readers may want to read Part 1 of our article to see the main inputs and metrics (such as ELO, tournament performance, and more) that comprise our computer sim. Our goal is to blend statistical facts and information including, but not limited to, categories of offense, defense, goaltending, strength of schedule, talent, preparation, tactics, and more.

Similar to our first article, we include Gold medal teams since 1932. We also included the 1980 Soviet team, which was upset by the 1980 USA “Miracle on Ice” team. Part 2 has been updated to reflect additional thoughts, especially related to how a a hot goaltender can drive teams to Olympic hockey gold.

Read more here: 

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/a-computer-sim-tournament-to-determine-the-goat-of-mens-olympic-hockey-e6dde632ad7a

Carlton Chin holds both graduate and undergraduate degrees from MIT, and is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Jon Hartley and Bob Gibson contributed reporting. Jon Hartley is an economist, policy expert, and member of Forbes’ 30 under 30 (2017). Jon has worked with the Dallas Cowboys in sports analytics and has been featured by CNBC, Forbes, and the Huffington Post. Jon holds degrees from Harvard, Wharton, and the U of Chicago — and is a PhD candidate at Stanford. Bob Gibson is a fan and historian of Olympic Hockey.

Who's the GOAT in Men's Olympic Hockey?

With the 2017 NHL playoffs underway and the 2018 Olympic Games coming up in less than a year, we thought we’d take a look at the greatest men’s Olympic Hockey Teams since hockey became an Olympic Sport in 1920. Several years ago, one of us wrote an article on the Miracle on Ice — and used Monte Carlo analyses to study how miraculous the 1980 US gold medal actually was.


Read more here:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/which-is-the-greatest-olympic-hockey-team-of-all-time_us_58f03401e4b0156697224e1b

Authored by Carlton Chin and Jon Hartley.  Carlton, founder of CARAT / Adamah Capital -- is a graduate of MIT -- and a quant researcher focused on portfolio strategy and sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings on their Analytics Advisory Council -- and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Jon Hartley is an economics writer and researcher with interests in finance, macroeconomics and sports analytics. Jon is a regular economics contributor for Forbes and The Huffington Post and has had other writings appear in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and Investor's Business Daily. Jon has also appeared on Fox Business, Fox News, CNN, Bloomberg, and NBC. 

2014 Winter Olympics: Will the U.S. WIn a Medal in Men's Hockey?

Below is an excerpt of an article we wrote on Team USA's men's hockey team chances at the 2014 Winter Olympics.


The opening ceremonies for the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi were almost a week ago and men’s hockey is getting started. What are the chances of Team USA taking home a medal? And what about a gold?

Some people have questioned the choice of the U.S. team to overlook potentially more talented NHL stars in favor of gritty, more defensive-minded players. Team USA passed on three of the top nine American NHL scoring stars and instead chose players like gritty Winnipeg Jets forward Blake Wheeler.

Although some are unhappy about the choice of seemingly less-skilled players, I like the strategy of going for two-way players, leadership and team chemistry. Many would agree that the Canadian and Russian teams are loaded with talent. It would be difficult to beat the two favorites at their own game — and skating with them in a high-scoring, offensive-minded affair. However, by going for a grittier style of play, there is more of a chance for an upset. In addition, Team USA is strong in terms of leadership, with eight players who are captains or co-captains of their respective NHL teams.

Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/clubhouse/2014/02/12/2014-winter-olympics-will-team-usa-win-gold-in-mens-hockey/


Herb Brooks put it best:

"I am not looking for the best players... I am looking for the right players."

http://vancouver2010.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/22/how-miraculous-was-the-miracle/?scp=1&sq=miraculous%20miracle&st=cse

Carlton Chin, CFA, an MIT graduate, enjoys applying numbers to everything from sports analytics to the financial markets. He is a portfolio strategist and fund manager and has been featured in the NY Times,RantSports, Wall St. Journal, SeekingAlpha & Financial Trader.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, is founder of StayInTheZone.com and was named one of America's Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest. He has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. A former university professor and has appeared on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.

Together, Carlton & Jay quantify concepts of sports psychology such as leadership, team chemistry, and focus on fundamentals -- and have worked with sports organizations. 

Olympics: Revisiting a Popular Article

With the 2012 Olympics set to start in London (and today being July 4th), we thought we would revisit one of our more popular articles -- on the 1980 Miracle on Ice.  In that article, we looked at concepts of sports psychology and did an interesting and fun analysis (including Monte Carlo simulations) to study the odds of the U.S. ice hockey team winning the gold medal.

Herb Brooks was a true master of sports psychology, graduating from college with a degree in psychology.  Brooks knew he had a chance to make some noise at the Olympics - especially with the US hosting the Winter Olympics.  Brooks worked at gathering players who could lift their games to special levels -- and could also play as part of a team where the sum of the parts were greater than the individual pieces.  

On goaltender Jim Craig and other players, Brooks said, "I don't want the best players, I want the right players."  Brooks knew what he was doing when he put his 1980 team together, piece by piece.  He also knew how to "push the players' buttons" and was tough on many members of that Miracle on Ice -- but eventually created one of the most beloved U.S. sports stories of the twentieth century.

Based on key hockey statistics and expectations, we performed a Monte Carlo simulation to study the odds of the United States hockey team winning the gold medal. Monte Carlo methods use a random process to solve complicated problems...

In a similar manner, hockey games can be modeled based on certain random variables and key statistics, including shots on goal, save percentage and shot efficiency. If we model the United States team as a seventh seed, the probability of the United States winning the gold medal approaches odds as high as 1 in 1,000. 

But the United States turned out to be a stronger team than expected. Entering the medal round of the Olympics, the United States and Soviet teams were undefeated. The United States was 4-0-1, outscoring their opponents by 25-10, while the Russians were 5-0, outscoring their opponents by 51-11. The Soviet goaltenders, Vladislav Tretiak and Vladimir Myshkin, averaged a solid 88.2 save percentage, and the American goalie Jim Craig had a 91.7 save percentage.

If we base our simulations on the team’s performance in the tournament, the odds could have been as low as 17-to-1 for the United States win the gold medal.

The entire article was originally published in the NY Times in 2010, on the 30th anniversary of the Miracle on Ice.  Read more here:
http://vancouver2010.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/22/how-miraculous-was-the-miracle/?scp=1&sq=miraculous%20miracle&st=cse

Hockey Puck Splits in Half; 2011 College Football BCS Game

This is not our normal information -- but thought this was worth sharing. Check this YouTube video out; the slow-motion is fun to see.

Olympic Hockey Gold Medal Game

Some readers asked us about today's Gold Medal match-up between the US and Canada ice hockey teams. Based on a similar Monte Carlo approach that we used for the NY Times article, Canada is a heavy favorite. On average, Canada would beat the US team by an average of about 1.4 goals and would win around 70% of the games played.

There appears to be value on Canada because the US defeated Canada earlier in the tournament (despite getting outshot badly) -- as well as other recent game results (for example, the final score of Canada's semi-final game was closer than the actual game).

One big sport psychology factor on the US side is Ryan Miller, a hot goalie who is "in the zone" and is certainly playing with great focus!

1980 Miracle on Ice: Quantifying Sport Psychology

The New York Times published an abridged version of our white paper on the 1980 Miracle on Ice. Please see below for the article and some text. Our white paper goes into more specifics of concepts of sport psychology, reviews specific examples of team chemistry and motivation -- and shows more results / details about our Monte Carlo simulations.

http://vancouver2010.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/22/how-miraculous-was-the-miracle/?scp=1&sq=miraculous%20miracle&st=cse

Some text from the article:

Today is the 30th anniversary of “The Miracle on Ice,” the stunning victory of the United States men’s hockey team over the Soviet Union in the 1980 Winter Olympics in Lake Placid. The young American team of amateurs went on to win the gold medal against Finland two days later.

But how big an upset was it? Using quantitative methods and Monte Carlo simulations, we studied the magnitude of the 1980 victory. Sport psychology played a big role in the Americans winning the gold medal and helped bridged the gap from 1,000-to-1 odds, down to a more manageable level of a 17-1 long-shot.

Brooks used just about every trick in the sport psychology book.

He graduated from college with a degree in psychology, and was a successful college coach at University of Minnesota, winning three championships in four finals appearances.

Brooks gave each prospect a psychology test to help him select a certain type of player.

Brooks said, "I'm not looking for the best players... I'm looking for the right players."