Pseudo-Scientific Prediction for American Idol

In the past, we've taken a poll from some friends and have done well at predicting the winners of shows like American Idol or dancing shows. Here are our rankings for American Idol as of 4/12/10.

1. Bowersox

2. Siobhan

3. Casey James

4. Lee Dewyze

T5. Aaron Kelly

T5. Michael Lynche

7. Katie

8. Andrew Garcia

9. Tim Urban

Sports Investing Book # 1

This interesting book "Sports Investing" -- applies concepts of contrarian investing to the sports marketplace. The book has been holding the # 1 spot in its Amazon "Sports" category.

The academic viewpoint will interest everyone from the casual sports bettor trying to improve results - to the professional sports gambler looking for additional angles - to the Wall Street trader researching additional markets to trade.

Public sentiment and betting activity cause the sports marketplace to act irrationally, in a way which can be measured and exploited. The massive flow of public wagers force betting lines to fluctuate like an inefficient market. Point spreads, betting line movement, public betting percentages, money management, statistical analysis, and other important topics are studied. The implementation of contrarian investing – and theories such as "Betting against the Public" and "Smart Money" are developed.

Final Four Recap, Predictions & Book

Research related to our book picked Duke to win the National Championship, running our record to 13-4 for predictions posted on our blog.

Please check out our book, by clicking here.

Built to Win:Duke

In case you wanted to "read between" the lines and save some reading, our analysis for the Final Four pointed to Duke. Please read the previous post for more details.

Here's the NY Times article:

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/02/keeping-score-which-team-is-built-to-win/

March Madness: Final Four

Our analysis for the Final Four was picked up by the NY Times.

Below is an excerpt; click here for the entire article:

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/02/keeping-score-which-team-is-built-to-win/

Over the past 25 tournaments, 14 of 25 champions have had Final Four experience from the previous three years. This factor favors Michigan State, the only remaining team that has a recent Final Four appearance (2009). Big game experience has proven to be one of the strongest and most consistent championship characteristics in every sport we have studied. Experience is related to confidence, focus, successfully managing big moments and relaxed aggression. On average, teams and athletes that have more big game experience have won about 70 percent of championship games.

Coaching leadership is also a key ingredient. This factor favors Duke and Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s 10-7 record once he reaches Final Four. Michigan State’s Tom Izzo has been to five previous Final Fours, but he is only 3-4 in the national semifinals and finals, winning one championship. West Virginia’s Bob Huggins lost his only Final Four game, while Butler Coach Brad Stevens is in his first national semifinal.

Leadership on the court is also important. Over the past 25 years, teams with more All-Americans have gone 11-7 in championship games. This factor points to Duke and West Virginia, each with one All-American, as opposed to Michigan State and Butler, with none.....