Who Will Win? Predictions update

The NHL & NBA Finals are over. We had predicted that the Lakers would win, based on championship characteristics and "quant facts" (backed up by a statistical analysis of 30 years of data) such as superstar presence and coaching greatness. It was a great series, and the Lakers prevailed in a difficult seven games.

On the other hand, the statistical data and championship factors leaned towards the underdog Flyers in the Stanley Cup Finals. This prediction was based on their goal tending and coach (who was successful in winning in his only previous Stanley Cup Finals appearance).

This brings the predictions, based on the Championship Characteristics in our book, "Who Will Win the Big Game? A Mathematical and Psychological Method" to 14-5.

Note that we sometimes select surprising underdogs based on these "winning factors" -- which are related to concepts of sports psychology such as minimizing errors (and not necessarily the general consensus as to who the better team is...).

Please check out this article that was picked up by EzineArticles, for more information.

NBA Finals Analysis -- in NY Times

http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/03/which-team-has-the-right-stuff-to-win-the-title/?scp=1&sq=carlton%20chin&st=cse

Excerpt:

This year’s N.B.A. finals present an interesting case. The two leadership factors point to the Lakers (coaching and star leadership), but the statistical factors (defense and consistency) favor the Celtics. Note, however, that the leadership factors have been the stronger factors over the years.

NBA Finals -- Factors Favor Lakers Slightly

More detailed info will be available shortly...

...

This year’s N.B.A. Final presents an interesting dilemma. The two leadership factors point to the Lakers (coaching and star leadership), but the other two factors (defense and consistency) favor the Celtics. Note, however, that the leadership factors have been the stronger factors over the years. In particular, the past twenty years have seen stars like Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan lead their teams to championships at a rate of 70% (14-6).