Quant Facts now 41-24 (63.1%)

We split this year's NBA and NHL finals, so that our record is now 41-24 (63.1%) in major championships.  We selected the Miami Heat incorrectly, but note that the San Antonio Spurs were a favorite in the finals.

The fact that these relatively simple methods have posted a 63.1% winning percentage when regularly selecting underdogs -- shows the power of analytics and sports psychology.  

Carlton Chin is a quant fact researcher who enjoys applying math to everything from sports analytics to the financial markets. Thoughtful analysis can result in knowledge discovery and help to explain the world around us. Carlton has been a contributor to the Sacramento Kings Advisory Council, New York Times and Rant Sports, and has also been featured in the Wall Street Journal and ESPN. 

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and has been named one of America's top mental gurus.  Jay coaches athletes of all levels, and has appeared in a variety of media outlets, including Good Morning America, ESPN and the New York Times.  

2014 NBA Finals: Who Will Win the Big Game?

Below is an excerpt from our analysis of this year's NBA Finals. We quantify statistics related to sports psychology to study the importance of key concepts such as leadership, experience, focus on fundamentals and defense, and minimizing errors.  Over the years, we have been able to predict the winners of major championships at a rate of 63.5% -- while sometimes going against the grain and selecting underdogs.

Together with Dr. Jay Granat, a psychotherapist, I quantified factors related to sports psychology. Our “quant facts” have successfully predicted the winner of this year’s Super Bowl and NCAA Men’s Final Four. Over the past several years, our predictions have been correct 63.5 percent of the time for major championships, while sometimes picking underdogs.

In part one of the series, we learned that the Miami Heat have an edge over the San Antonio Spurs in important factors such as big game experience and defense. What do the numbers say about other factors related to sports psychology?

Read more at: 
http://www.rantsports.com/nba/2014/06/05/2014-nba-finals-numbers-predict-who-will-win/?ft1A1QzGxUPoyZVu.99

Please also read our analysis for the 2014 NHL Stanley Cup Finals.

2014 Stanley Cup: Who Will Win?

Here's an excerpt from our analysis on this year's Stanley Cup.

Together with Dr. Jay Granat, a psychotherapist, I quantified factors related to concepts of sports psychology. Our “quant facts” have successfully predicted the winner of this year’s Super Bowl and the NCAA tournament’s Final Four.  In total, our predictions have been 63.5 percent correct in major championships — while sometimes going against the grain and picking underdogs.

Our research has shown that big-game experience is related with winning the big game. Over the past 34 years, teams that appeared in the Stanley Cup Finals over the previous three years have compiled an 85 percent winning percentage in Finals. The Kings have the edge in this department, winning the Stanley Cup just two years ago. Edge: Kings.

Read more at:
http://www.rantsports.com/nhl/2014/06/04/2014-stanley-cup-finals-numbers-predict-who-will-win/#mQlmKXKo3Kfg0iCA.99

Quant Facts Now 40-23 (63.5%)

Our "quant fact" predictions were correct for all three games of the NCAA Men's Final Four. We correctly predicted that Connecticut would defeat Kentucky for the national title.  In addition, we had Connecticut and Kentucky winning their respective semifinal games.  Our methods have been particularly successful during March Madness.

This improves our record to 40-23 (63.5%) in major championships.  

We will be back shortly with our quant fact predictions -- related to sports psychology -- for the Stanley Cup Finals and NBA Finals.  

Carlton Chin is a quant fact researcher who enjoys applying math to everything from sports analytics to the financial markets. Thoughtful analysis can result in knowledge discovery and help to explain the world around us. Carlton has been a contributor to the New York Times and Rant Sports, and has also been featured in the Wall Street Journal and ESPN. 

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and has been named one of America's top mental gurus.  Jay coaches athletes of all levels, and has appeared in a variety of media outlets, including Good Morning America, ESPN and the New York Times.  

2014 Final Four: Who Will Win

Our quant fact predictions for the 2014 Final Four are summarized in the article below.  Here is an excerpt:

This research goes back to 1985 when the NCAA Tournament went to its current format.   

...

In a close game, free throws can make the difference between winning and losing a championship. The team with a better free throw percentage has won 73 percent of national title games since this data became available.

This factor favors Connecticut and its 77.4 free throw percentage over the Florida Gators at 66.7 percent. In the other semifinal matchup, the Wisconsin Badgers (74.1 percent) best the Wildcats (68.5 percent) in free throw shooting.

...

Research shows that defense does indeed win championships. The team with the better field goal percentage defense has won an overwhelming 92 percent of national championship games since this data became available.

Connecticut edges Florida in this statistic 39.2 percent to 39.9 percent. Interestingly, for all of the talk about Wisconsin’s defense, Kentucky rates better in field goal percentage defense 41.0 percent to 42.7 percent.

The sports psychology quant facts for the two semifinal games favor Connecticut over Florida and Kentucky over Wisconsin. 

Connecticut 4 (Experience, Leadership, Free Throws, FG Defense) – Florida 1 (Coach)

Kentucky 3 (Experience, Coach, FG Defense) – Wisconsin 1 (Free Throws)

Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/ncaa-basketball/2014/04/04/2014-final-four-sports-psychology-by-the-numbers/#pX7Vqz2F97Er2ktY.99

Our quant facts favor Connecticut and Kentucky in the semifinal games.  

***

For the Final: 
http://www.rantsports.com/ncaa-basketball/2014/04/06/2014-ncaa-tournament-who-will-win-the-big-game/

Quant Facts now 37-23 (61.7%)

With the Super Bowl quant fact prediction of Seattle, our record for quant fact predictions improves to 37-23 (61.7%).  This shows the power of sports analytics and quantifying concepts of sports psychology. The results are particularly strong because we sometimes pick underdogs and can find value where other analysts may not be looking.



Carlton Chin is a quant fact researcher who enjoys applying math to everything from sports analytics to the financial markets. Thoughtful analysis can result in knowledge discovery and help to explain the world around us. Carlton has been a contributor to the New York Times and Rant Sports, and has also been featured in the Wall Street Journal and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and Jay has been named one of America's top mental gurus, coaches athletes of all levels, and has appeared in a variety of media outlets, including Good Morning America, ESPN and the New York Times.  

2014 Winter Olympics: Which Countries Performed the Best?

Here is an excerpt from my article on the 2014 Sochi Olympics.  Note that I reference two links / articles that may be of interest:

• Medal Count -- worksheet for 2014 and 2010 Winter Olympics
• Article on factors related to winning Olympic Medals.

The article looks at overall medal performance -- as well as performance as a function of population and GDP.  

The 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics ended on February 23. History has been written, new records have been achieved and medals have been awarded. There have been many story lines such as Russian skating sensation Yulia Lipnitskaya becoming the youngest Olympic gold medalist in team figure skating at age 15. The Olympics are a special time as the world cheers for athletic excellence and countries seem to pull together to root for their country’s athletes.

As Olympic fans note, there are several lists of medal counts. Some people like to follow the gold medal count while others focus on total medals. Based on an informal survey, we created a point value system for medals as follows: five points for a gold medal, two points for silver, and one point for bronze.

Based on this point system, we awarded the following medals for overall country performance:

Gold – Russia
Silver – Norway
Bronze — Canada
Special mention: USA (fourth place)

Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/clubhouse/2014/02/25/2014-winter-olympics-which-countries-performed-the-best/

2014 Winter Olympics: Will the U.S. WIn a Medal in Men's Hockey?

Below is an excerpt of an article we wrote on Team USA's men's hockey team chances at the 2014 Winter Olympics.


The opening ceremonies for the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi were almost a week ago and men’s hockey is getting started. What are the chances of Team USA taking home a medal? And what about a gold?

Some people have questioned the choice of the U.S. team to overlook potentially more talented NHL stars in favor of gritty, more defensive-minded players. Team USA passed on three of the top nine American NHL scoring stars and instead chose players like gritty Winnipeg Jets forward Blake Wheeler.

Although some are unhappy about the choice of seemingly less-skilled players, I like the strategy of going for two-way players, leadership and team chemistry. Many would agree that the Canadian and Russian teams are loaded with talent. It would be difficult to beat the two favorites at their own game — and skating with them in a high-scoring, offensive-minded affair. However, by going for a grittier style of play, there is more of a chance for an upset. In addition, Team USA is strong in terms of leadership, with eight players who are captains or co-captains of their respective NHL teams.

Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/clubhouse/2014/02/12/2014-winter-olympics-will-team-usa-win-gold-in-mens-hockey/


Herb Brooks put it best:

"I am not looking for the best players... I am looking for the right players."

http://vancouver2010.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/22/how-miraculous-was-the-miracle/?scp=1&sq=miraculous%20miracle&st=cse

Carlton Chin, CFA, an MIT graduate, enjoys applying numbers to everything from sports analytics to the financial markets. He is a portfolio strategist and fund manager and has been featured in the NY Times,RantSports, Wall St. Journal, SeekingAlpha & Financial Trader.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, is founder of StayInTheZone.com and was named one of America's Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest. He has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. A former university professor and has appeared on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.

Together, Carlton & Jay quantify concepts of sports psychology such as leadership, team chemistry, and focus on fundamentals -- and have worked with sports organizations. 

Super Bowl XLVIII Analytics (2014)

As you can tell, we enjoy sports -- and particularly playoffs and championship games.  Here are various sports analytics we have performed for this year's 2014 Super Bowl.  We looked at everything from "Wins Above Average" and Monte Carlo simulations to sports psychology and Pythagorean approaches.

 Sports Analytics approaches

• Monte Carlo sims http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/02/01/picking-the-winner-of-super-bowl-xlviii-with-monte-carlo-analysis/
• Player "Wins Above Average" http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/31/2014-super-bowl-wins-above-average-analysis-to-determine-a-winner/

Sports Psychology + Stats approach

http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/30/2014-super-bowl-who-will-win-the-big-game/

If you (or your friends) are in those Square Pools -- this could be interesting

http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/27/2014-super-bowl-square-pool-probabilities-by-quarter/

Carlton Chin, CFA, holds both undergraduate and graduate degrees from MIT and enjoys applying numbers to everything from sports analytics to the financial markets. He is a fund manager and quant researcher. He has been featured in the NY Times, RantSports, Wall St. Journal,SeekingAlpha & Financial Trader.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America's Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. A former university professor, he has authored several books on sport psychology -- and has appeared on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.

Who Will Win the 2014 Super Bowl?

Here is this year's "Who Will Win" article for the Super Bowl.

Together with Dr. Jay Granat, a psychotherapist, I studied factors related to sports psychology to help predict the winner of the Super Bowl. The results are based on every Super Bowl ever played since the first Super Bowl in January 1967.

This year’s Super Bowl between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks is a classic matchup between offense and defense.

Read more here for the Quant Fact predictions at http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/30/2014-super-bowl-who-will-win-the-big-game/?3pt1yM4RgIXAaI26.99



If you are in a Super Bowl Square Pool, check out our updated odds for this year's Super Bowl.
http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/27/2014-super-bowl-square-pool-probabilities-by-quarter/

Super Bowl Square Pool Odds, by Quarter (2014)

Are you in one of those popular Super Bowl Square Pools?  Here are the probabilities of your numbers winning, for the final score.  In the link below, we also compute the probabilities for the square pool winner for each quarter.  

Square Pool Probabilities - Final Score

If you are participating in a square pool (where only the last digit for each team counts), you will be randomly assigned a digit for each team, such as the Seattle Seahawks (or NFC) 3, and the Denver Broncos (or AFC) 4. Many fans have an idea of what numbers are “good.” Here, we compute square pool probabilities, or odds, based on historical results by quarter.

Most people know that numbers like 7, 3, and 0 are good, due to the key numbers associated with touchdowns and field goals. But how good are these numbers? And what about the 4, 6, or 1? Several years ago, I computed the probabilities of the digits winning for each quarter – based on every Super Bowl ever played. The results were published by the New York Times, in their Super Bowl Sunday spread print edition.

Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/27/2014-super-bowl-square-pool-probabilities-by-quarter/?YhoBfZegjGmcc7rJ.99


Carlton Chin is a fund manager, quant researcher, and sports analytics contributor to Rant Sports.  He has also contributed to the New York Times, Wall St. Journal, and ESPN.  Don La Fronz is a financial advisor and originated the idea for this piece.

Article on Monte Carlo and Carlton Chin

We noticed this article on Monte Carlo analysis and our work on sports analytics.

You know something has entered the realms of popular culture when everybody speaks about it in the same breath as Hollywood blockbusters, their tax bills or smartphones. Well, OK… Monte Carlo analysis hasn’t quite made it that far, but it has cropped up in connection with women’s tennis championships, and a number of other sports as well. Carlton J. Chin (portfolio strategist and fund manager when he’s not analyzing sports events) applied Monte Carlo analysis to forecast the results of the 2013 US Open Tennis and the Women’s Singles in particular. So what were his predictions – and, more to the point, was he right?

Image source: tennismindgame.com

The Method Behind the Monte Carlo Madness

Chin asserts that sports are often good candidates for Monte Carlo Analysis because they are marked by specific events: in tennis, such events are, for instance, holding or breaking serve. He used the ability of certain players to hold or break serve drawing on statistics from the rest of the year. Then he used a Monte Carlo analysis in a simulation of thousands of games between these players. His forecasts were that Serena Williams had a 62.3 per cent chance of winning, followed by Victoria Azarenka (16.2 per cent) and Li Na (10.8 per cent). In general, his predictions held good, barring some US Open position upsets like Flavia Pennetta (0.5 per cent) beating her fellow Italian Robert Vinci (6.4 per cent) in the quarter finals.

- See more at: http://decision-analytics-blog.lumina.com/monte-carlo-simulations/monte-carlo-analysis-goes-mainstream-with-womens-tennis/#sthash.ybtt9TZe.dpuf

Quant Facts now 36-23 (61.0%)

Thank you to those who commented how close our Monte Carlo simulations were to the final BCS score.  Our sports psychology factors predicted a very close game -- and selected the underdog, Auburn, in a 35-34 victory.  Florida State, a heavy favorite (about -9 points), stormed back from a 21-3 deficit (and even a 31-27 deficit with one minute remaining in the game) to take the BCS 34-31.

This drops our official quant fact record to 36-23, although the result was definitely more than a moral victory.  Our research shows the importance of factors related to sports psychology.  Our work highlights factors that are under-weighted by sports analysts and sports fans.  Stay-tuned for several upcoming Super Bowl pieces.

2014 BCS: Auburn vs. Florida State

Based on research with my colleague, Dr. Jay Granat - a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com - we have analyzed factors related to sports psychology.  Our series of articles is based on several decades worth of championship results (depending on the sport).  Our work has predicted the winner of major sports championships at a 62% rate (sometimes picking underdogs) -- and is regularly featured in the New York Times.   

Here is our analysis for the 2014 BCS game between Auburn and Florida State.  

Defense

Our research shows that defense is more closely related to winning championships than a high-octane offense.  In college football, the team with the better defense in terms of points scored has won 53.3% of championship games since the B.C.S. began fifteen years ago.  Another key statistic has the team with the better defense – as measured by average yards yielded per rush – winning 71.4% of the games over the past 14 years (since the statistic is widely available).

In defensive points against, Florida State (10.7 points against / game) is ranked better than Auburn (24.0).  Florida State also performed better than Auburn in defensive yards per rush.  Florida State held opponents to 3.1 yards / rush versus Auburn’s 4.6 yards / rush.  Edge: Florida State. 

Consistency

Consistency is an important factor in winning championships across all sports.  In both professional football and college football, average yards per rush is a good indicator of consistency and control of the game.  The team with the better rushing statistic has won 57.1% of the championship games over the past 14 years.  Auburn has run for 6.5 yards per rush, versus Florida State’s 5.7 yards per rush.  Edge: Auburn.

Minimizing Errors

Minimizing mistakes is also crucial to winning the big game.  Statistics show that teams which execute better during the regular season also perform well in championships.  In both college and professional football, the team with fewer interceptions during the regular season has won a large majority of title games.

Over the past 15 years of college football, the team with fewer interceptions has won 60% of national championship games.  Auburn threw 7 interceptions this year, while Florida State threw 13.  Although Florida State passes much more than Auburn, Auburn’s interception rate is also better than Florida State. Edge: Auburn.

Big Game Experience & Coaching Leadership

Big game experience and coaching has a positive relationship with winning championships across all major U.S. sports.  On average, these factors work out to about a 60% success rate in sports we studied.  However, the experience factor, as measured by finals appearances over the past three years, posts just a 4-6 (40%) record since the B.C.S. began.  Auburn won the B.C.S. Championship in 2010.  Florida State has not made a championship final game over the past three years.  Big game experience: Auburn.

Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher has a 3-0 record in major bowls, all with Florida State over the past three years.  On the other hand, this is the first major bowl for Auburn coach Gus Malzahn. Coaching edge: Florida State.

Strength of Schedule

Some sports fans will point out differences in strength of schedule, or S.O.S.  For example, Auburn played Alabama (ranked #1 at the time of the game), Missouri (#5), and a total of six teams ranked in the top 25 in compiling a 12-1 record.  Florida State played Clemson (#3 at the time of the game) and four ranked teams during their 13-0 season. 

Over the past 15 years, the team with the better strength of schedule, as measured by SportsReference.com, has won 53.3% of championships.  It is noteworthy that when the difference in S.O.S. has been greater than 3.0 during this 15 year period, the team with the tougher schedule has gone 4-0 in the championship.  This year’s game features the widest S.O.S. spread since the B.C.S. began.  Auburn has a S.O.S. of 6.62 versus Florida State’s -0.06. 

Summary and Football Simulator

Our championship factors related to concepts of sports psychology, favor Auburn 3-2.  In addition, we model football games based on certain random variables, statistics, and our championship factors.  Our football simulator is a probabilistic Monte Carlo model, based on statistics from the regular season. 

Based on our simulator, the final score that comes up most frequently is: Auburn 35 – Florida State 34. 

Carlton Chin, a portfolio strategist and fund manager, and Jay Granat, psychotherapist, are authors of “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method.”  They have previously written about the N.C.A.A. men’s basketball tournament, the Super Bowl, and last year’s B.C.S.