Thursday, October 27, 2022

Who Will Win the 2022 World Series?

Who will win the 2022 World Series between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies? More than ten years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

Sunday, February 6, 2022

Who Will Win the Big Game? LAR vs. Cin in 2022 Super Bowl

The Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams kick-off Super Bowl LVI in about one week. About a decade ago, a colleague and I performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL.

Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

The research launched a series of articles that has been published by the Wall Street Journal and New York Times — and has picked the correct winner of major sporting events about 65% of the time.

Friday, February 4, 2022

Super Bowl Square Pool Odds by Quarter, UPDATED!

Do you have your Super Bowl Square Pool box yet? The Super Bowl kicks off in less than two weeks — and many people are getting in on the popular 10x10 Square Pool. The great thing about these pools is that it is totally random, so if you are watching the game, you have a “fair” rooting interest.

We will be coming out with our Who Will Win article for this year’s Super Bowl soon!

Saturday, January 15, 2022

A Tournament of Champs: The GOAT of Men's Olympic Hockey

With the 2022 Winter Olympic Games approaching, we present Part 2 of our series of articles on which Olympic Men’s Hockey team is the greatest of all time (GOAT). In Part 1 (2017) of our work, we used analytics and statistics to study the best Olympic hockey teams in history.

Which is the Greatest Olympic Hockey Team of All-Time Based on Stats and Computer Simulations?

Co-authored by Carlton Chin, founder of CARAT / Adamah Capital. Carlton, a graduate of MIT, is a quant researcher…

www.huffpost.com

In Part 2 of the series, we perform computer simulations to run tournaments of the best Olympic teams in history. Readers may want to read Part 1 of our article to see the main inputs and metrics (such as ELO, tournament performance, and more) that comprise our computer sim. Our goal is to blend statistical facts and information including, but not limited to, categories of offense, defense, goaltending, strength of schedule, talent, preparation, tactics, and more.

Similar to our first article, we include Gold medal teams since 1932. We also included the 1980 Soviet team, which was upset by the 1980 USA “Miracle on Ice” team. Part 2 has been updated to reflect additional thoughts, especially related to how a a hot goaltender can drive teams to Olympic hockey gold.

Carlton Chin holds both graduate and undergraduate degrees from MIT, and is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Jon Hartley and Bob Gibson contributed reporting. Jon Hartley is an economist, policy expert, and member of Forbes’ 30 under 30 (2017). Jon has worked with the Dallas Cowboys in sports analytics and has been featured by CNBC, Forbes, and the Huffington Post. Jon holds degrees from Harvard, Wharton, and the U of Chicago — and is a PhD candidate at Stanford. Bob Gibson is a fan and historian of Olympic Hockey.

Saturday, January 8, 2022

The 2022 College Football Championship: Alabama vs. Georgia

Several years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

Since that time, our published “quant fact predictions” have been correct 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs to win championships. What do the numbers say about this year’s College Football Championship?

Defense

Perhaps a boring mantra, but our research shows that defense does indeed win championships. One exception was the NHL’s high-scoring Wayne Gretzky period, where offenses led the way for a short period. Earlier in the season, Georgia’s defense was being considered “historically great.”

Georgia went on to lose 41–24 to a motivated Alabama team on December 4th. Georgia yielded almost one-third of their season’s total points that day. Even so, Georgia has given up about half as many points as compared to Alabama this season (135 to 269).

It will be interesting to see if the first Alabama-Georgia game was a blip, or if Georgia does indeed have a “historically great defense” and bounces back in a revenge game. There are multiple interesting storylines! Edge: Georgia.

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.