Quant Facts now 36-23 (61.0%)

Thank you to those who commented how close our Monte Carlo simulations were to the final BCS score.  Our sports psychology factors predicted a very close game -- and selected the underdog, Auburn, in a 35-34 victory.  Florida State, a heavy favorite (about -9 points), stormed back from a 21-3 deficit (and even a 31-27 deficit with one minute remaining in the game) to take the BCS 34-31.

This drops our official quant fact record to 36-23, although the result was definitely more than a moral victory.  Our research shows the importance of factors related to sports psychology.  Our work highlights factors that are under-weighted by sports analysts and sports fans.  Stay-tuned for several upcoming Super Bowl pieces.

2014 BCS: Auburn vs. Florida State

Based on research with my colleague, Dr. Jay Granat - a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com - we have analyzed factors related to sports psychology.  Our series of articles is based on several decades worth of championship results (depending on the sport).  Our work has predicted the winner of major sports championships at a 62% rate (sometimes picking underdogs) -- and is regularly featured in the New York Times.   

Here is our analysis for the 2014 BCS game between Auburn and Florida State.  

Defense

Our research shows that defense is more closely related to winning championships than a high-octane offense.  In college football, the team with the better defense in terms of points scored has won 53.3% of championship games since the B.C.S. began fifteen years ago.  Another key statistic has the team with the better defense – as measured by average yards yielded per rush – winning 71.4% of the games over the past 14 years (since the statistic is widely available).

In defensive points against, Florida State (10.7 points against / game) is ranked better than Auburn (24.0).  Florida State also performed better than Auburn in defensive yards per rush.  Florida State held opponents to 3.1 yards / rush versus Auburn’s 4.6 yards / rush.  Edge: Florida State. 

Consistency

Consistency is an important factor in winning championships across all sports.  In both professional football and college football, average yards per rush is a good indicator of consistency and control of the game.  The team with the better rushing statistic has won 57.1% of the championship games over the past 14 years.  Auburn has run for 6.5 yards per rush, versus Florida State’s 5.7 yards per rush.  Edge: Auburn.

Minimizing Errors

Minimizing mistakes is also crucial to winning the big game.  Statistics show that teams which execute better during the regular season also perform well in championships.  In both college and professional football, the team with fewer interceptions during the regular season has won a large majority of title games.

Over the past 15 years of college football, the team with fewer interceptions has won 60% of national championship games.  Auburn threw 7 interceptions this year, while Florida State threw 13.  Although Florida State passes much more than Auburn, Auburn’s interception rate is also better than Florida State. Edge: Auburn.

Big Game Experience & Coaching Leadership

Big game experience and coaching has a positive relationship with winning championships across all major U.S. sports.  On average, these factors work out to about a 60% success rate in sports we studied.  However, the experience factor, as measured by finals appearances over the past three years, posts just a 4-6 (40%) record since the B.C.S. began.  Auburn won the B.C.S. Championship in 2010.  Florida State has not made a championship final game over the past three years.  Big game experience: Auburn.

Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher has a 3-0 record in major bowls, all with Florida State over the past three years.  On the other hand, this is the first major bowl for Auburn coach Gus Malzahn. Coaching edge: Florida State.

Strength of Schedule

Some sports fans will point out differences in strength of schedule, or S.O.S.  For example, Auburn played Alabama (ranked #1 at the time of the game), Missouri (#5), and a total of six teams ranked in the top 25 in compiling a 12-1 record.  Florida State played Clemson (#3 at the time of the game) and four ranked teams during their 13-0 season. 

Over the past 15 years, the team with the better strength of schedule, as measured by SportsReference.com, has won 53.3% of championships.  It is noteworthy that when the difference in S.O.S. has been greater than 3.0 during this 15 year period, the team with the tougher schedule has gone 4-0 in the championship.  This year’s game features the widest S.O.S. spread since the B.C.S. began.  Auburn has a S.O.S. of 6.62 versus Florida State’s -0.06. 

Summary and Football Simulator

Our championship factors related to concepts of sports psychology, favor Auburn 3-2.  In addition, we model football games based on certain random variables, statistics, and our championship factors.  Our football simulator is a probabilistic Monte Carlo model, based on statistics from the regular season. 

Based on our simulator, the final score that comes up most frequently is: Auburn 35 – Florida State 34. 

Carlton Chin, a portfolio strategist and fund manager, and Jay Granat, psychotherapist, are authors of “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method.”  They have previously written about the N.C.A.A. men’s basketball tournament, the Super Bowl, and last year’s B.C.S.

Altitude, Attitude & Denver's Home Field Advantage

With NFL teams scrambling for playoff positioning -- sports analysts have been talking about the Broncos and Seahawks trying to clinch home field advantage -- as they march towards to the Super Bowl.  Most sports fans know that home teams have a home field advantage.  But how much of an edge is home field?  We took a look at statistics over several decades worth of data:

• In the NFL, home teams win 57.3% of the time.
• In MLB, home teams win 53.9% of the time.
• In the NBA, home teams win 60.5% of the time.  

Success at home can be attributed to the impact of the crowd, getting favorable calls from officials (related impact of crowds and peer pressure) -- and the players being in familiar surroundings.  This could include idiosyncrasies of the playing field -- or merely being in the comfort of their homes (and less travel).  

Home Field Advantage for Individual Teams: Denver

To study home field advantage for individual teams -- and to adjust for stronger and weaker teams -- we compare team records at home versus their records away.  Over the longer-term time-frame, we see that:

• NFL teams win 57.3% of the time at home, thus winning 42.7% on the road -- for a 14.6% difference.  
• Similarly, we see that the difference for baseball is 53.9% - 46.1% = 7.8%, and 
• For the NBA: 60.5% - 39.5% = 21.0%.  

When you add high altitude to the mix, it is clear that teams that are based in Denver may have a significant advantage over their opponents.   ...   The Rockies, the Nuggets and the Broncos all have strong records at home. Over the past decade, the Colorado-based teams have combined for one of the best home-field advantages of all major professional sports.

In the NBA, the Nuggets are about 30% better than the league average for home-field advantage (+27.6% home-field edge). In baseball, the Rockies almost double the league home-field advantage at +13.8%. Interestingly, the Broncos are only about average in terms of home-field advantage, at +12.5% over the past decade - although previously, the Broncos home-field advantage was notably strong.

Over the past decade, the Rockies and Nuggets have consistently placed at the top of their respective leagues in terms of home-field advantage, and in total the Colorado-based teams can boast "attitude at home," in addition to the "altitude advantage."

Read more here: http://EzineArticles.com/8211155

Seattle Seahawks: Noise

In recent years, the Seattle Seahawks have had one of the largest home field advantages in the NFL.  This has been attributed to the noise levels of their home crowds, exacerbated by their stadium, which seems to funnel the noise levels.

The noise routinely wreaks havoc on opposing offenses as quarterbacks struggle to call plays or audible at the line scrimmage without the use of non-verbal communication. Offenses are often baited into false-start and delay-of-game penalties due to the noise at CenturyLink.

Read more here:
http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2013/11/extreme_decibel_levels_give_th.html


Home Field Advantage and Confidence

No matter what NFL playoff teams clinch home field advantage, they will have a decided edge.  And -- home field advantage for the Broncos and Seahawks can go a long way in determining this year's Super Bowl participants.

Home field advantage for these teams are related to attitude, confidence and mental toughness -- concepts of sports psychology that can improve teams' chances of winning games and winning championships.


Please visit our "Who Will Win" blog for a Monte Carlo simulation of the college football BCS game.