Friday, January 28, 2011

Australian Open Men's Final

Australian Open tennis always seems capture our interest, with the lull in sports before the Super Bowl -- and the allure of the hot Aussie weather in the middle of cold winters here in the northeast US. (This is particularly true with so many snowstorms -- making people snicker about global warming!)

In the men's championship at the Australian Open, we have a rare final with neither Federer nor Nadal playing for the first Grand Slam of the season. Here are some "quant facts" for the men's final:

  • Based on "Big Point Performance (BPP)," a slight edge goes to Djokovic over Andy Murray. We developed "BPP" in our book, "Who Will Win the Big Game?" -- a statistic that looks at performance on key points in a match. Murray played the big points huge in his semifinal match win over Ferrer, but the edge goes to Djokovic when studying both the quarterfinals and semifinals.
  • The head-to-head match-up goes to Djokovic, who leads Murray 4-3.
  • In Grand Slam finals, Djokovic is 1-2, while Murray is 0-2.
All three factors point to Djokovic, so we will go with Novak Djokovic to claim his second Grand Slam.