Monday, September 9, 2013

2013 US Open Men's Final - Nadal vs. Djokovic

Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, we made a quant fact prediction for the women's champion early in the tournament, that turned out to be correct.  Congratulations to Serena Williams, as well as Victoria Azarenka, who made it a much tougher match than many predicted.  Azarenka is a worthy opponent -- and former number one player in the world, and at age 24, looks like she is poised to regain the top ranking in the world as Serena Williams gets further into her thirties.

On the men's side, our quant fact predictions (based on our Monte Carlo analysis) picks Djokovic in a very close match.  We are looking forward to a great match!  The final is a match-up between:

  • ... a red-hot Nadal, who is the favorite based on oddsmakers -- and has been broken only once during the U.S. Open -- against... 
  • Djokovic, who has been number one since his fantastic year in 2011 -- and maintains the best return game on hard courts this season.
  • In many ways, this is a match between momentum (Nadal has been red-not!) against intermediate-term statistics and rankings (Djokovic maintains the best raw statistics, especially based on his return game).  
  • In much of our research, momentum is sometimes overvalued, so our quant fact prediction is on Djokovic.    
We will update the record of our quant fact predictions after the U.S. Open.