Check this out; fun video...
http://eye-on-college-basketball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26283066/29509895
Monday, May 23, 2011
Sunday, May 15, 2011
NBA: Eastern Conference Finals
There is a lot of interest in the NBA Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls. Based on an analysis of factors related to the NBA factors we have researched in our book, "Who Will Win the Big Game?" -- and applied for the NY Times for last year's NBA Finals, we favor the Miami Heat over the Chicago Bulls. Here are several of the key factors (2 factors for Miami; 1 for Chicago):
- Leadership -- and star power. LeBron James has his fans -- and his detractors... In either case, he is an NBA "great" who can control the game and help "will" his team to victory.
- Consistency -- field-goal percentage points to Miami over Chicago.
- Defense -- points to Chicago.
This prediction will count for our blog's "official" quant fact results.
Saturday, May 7, 2011
Quant Fact: Long-Shot & Favorite Bias
Just a quick blog post on a "quant fact" related to some big sporting events today. In addition to the Kentucky Derby -- there is a big-name boxing match-up between Shane Mosley and Manny Pacquiao.
We think it is interesting that historically, there is a "long-shot-favorite bias" whereby the public overvalues long-shots and undervalues favorites.
In both horse racing and boxing, there are often mismatches. And due to these mismatches, there are long-shots that are more interesting for the general public on which to place a small wager. After all, it is more exciting to take an underdog and win $50 on a $10 bet -- than to win $2 on a $10 bet. This creates value for some -- who follow the stats and numbers.
Here is a paper on this bias:
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