Based on research from the book, “Who Will Win the Big Game,” nineteen factors were studied that might help predict the winner of the Super Bowl. The results are based on every Super Bowl from Super Bowl I in January 1967 to Super Bowl XLIII in 2009, or forty-three games. The authors have been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, New York Times and CNN Radio.
With an eye towards key concepts of sport psychology, as well as statistical analysis that attempts to identify factors that are as independent from one another as possible, five key statistical factors were identified. These statistics are related to principles of sport psychology such as experience, leadership, error control, and consistency. So important are these concepts to winning championships that they have proven to be common themes across all sports.
With a Super Bowl appearance in 2007, the Colts pick up experience points. Some people favor the Colts mainly due to this one key factor.
Most sports fans believe that "defense wins championships." Research shows that defense is, indeed, a crucial ingredient to winning the Super Bowl. A large majority of Super Bowls (68.3%) has been won by the team with the better defense, measured by points against. The Colts’ defense ranked number 8 this year, while the Saints’ defense was ranked number 20.
LEADERSHIP and MINIMIZING ERRORS
RUSHING GAME
CONFIDENCE
CONSISTENCY
Research has shown that consistency measures are often more important to winning championships than the more exciting events that each particular sport has to offer. For example, defense and rushing yards/rush are more consistent parts of the game, as opposed to long TD passes and glitzy quarterback ratings.
Super Bowl Championship Characteristics
Factor | Factor Winning % | Colts | Saints | Favors |
Defense – Points Against per Game (Rank) | 68.3% | 19.2 (8) | 21.3 (20) | Colts |
Big Game Experience | 63.6% | 2007 Super Bowl Appearance | - | Colts |
Offense – Rushing Yards per Rush (Rank) | 59.5% | 3.5 (30) | 4.5 (7) | Saints |
Fewer Interceptions | 59.0% | 19 | 12 | Saints |
Double-Digit Wins | 59.0% | 8 | 10 | Saints |
These are the five most important characteristics identified by an analysis of psychological and mathematical factors. Factor Winning % is that factor’s success at predicting the Super Bowl winner. Results are based on 43 Super Bowls, going back to Super Bowl I.
WHO WILL WIN THE BIG GAME?
Many people favor the Colts in this year’s Super Bowl. Fans remember recent performance, and in particular, the Conference Championship games. However, data shows that this factor, as measured by margin of victory, in the Conference Championships, has very little correlation with winning the Super Bowl.
So who will win the big game? Will it be the Colts with their playoff experience and superior defense? Or will it be the Saints with their leadership, consistent running game, and confidence? In this article, we highlighted five factors - three of which favor the Saints. However, two of the strongest factors favor the Colts. PART 2 of this article has been posted.
Enjoy the big game!