Saturday, February 6, 2010

Who Will Win the Super Bowl? PART 2 (2010)

Some of our readers asked us to be more definitive about who we really like in the Super Bowl. In our previous post on this topic, we had 3 factors in favor of the Saints (leadership/errors, confidence, and consistency-rushing game), and 2 factors in favor of the Colts (experience and consistency-defense).

If we use some additional factors from our research, that also are correlated with winning the Super Bowl, in total, we have 6 "sport psychology stat" factors favoring the Saints, and 3 favoring the Colts.
  • Sacks - a defensive category that is close, but favors the Saints.
  • Takeaway-Giveaways - the Saints have been strong in this category this season.
  • Defense (Fewer Passing Yards / Attempt) - a defensive category that favors the Colts.
  • Fewer Fumbles - weirdly enough, this is a negative indicator. Some analysts have said that fumbles are "luck of the draw," more of a random event, as opposed to QB interceptions, that are an important part of a QB's skill set. Perhaps this leads to teams focusing on holding on to the ball -- but net-net -- this factor favors the Saints.
Thus, we now have 6 factors favoring the Saints, and 3 factors favoring the Colts

Jay Granat, founder of, and Carlton Chin study and quantify championship characteristics related to sport psychology. We are particularly interested in qualities that are more readily coached, taught, and practiced.