Saturday, May 29, 2010

Stanley Cup Finals - Flyers vs. Black Hawks

Excerpts from some of our research were picked up by

The Chicago Black Hawks and Philadelphia Flyers are set to face off in the Finals of the NHL Stanley Cup. What do the sports marketplace indicators say? And are there other indicators or factors we can consider? We looked into some of the key championship factors researched in the book: "Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method."


Leadership and This Year's Finalists
Over the past 30 years, the team with the better offensive star, measured by points scored, has gone 19-11 (63.3%) in Stanley Cup Finals. This factor favors the Black Hawks, and Patrick Kane (88 points) over the Flyers and Mike Richards (62 points).
We note, however, that generally, during hard-checking and physical playoff hockey, defense and goalies who are “in the zone” are major determinants of the eventual champions. The exception to the rule is when you have a standout offensive leader like Wayne Gretzky. “The Great One” ushered in a period of high-powered NHL scoring from the mid-80’s to the mid-90’s. During this time, offensive leaders were more easily able to “lead’ and “will” their way to championships. Gretzky led his Edmonton Oilers to several Stanley Cups, and then Mario Lemieux did the same for his Pittsburgh Penguins.
In less “high-powered” offensive times, defense and a good goalie have been key to winning the Stanley Cup. Over the past 30 years, teams with the better goalie save percentage have gone 18-11 (62.2%). Over recent years, since the high-scoring period of the mid-80’s to the mid-90’s, teams with the better save percentage have gone:
  • 3-0 over the last 4 years (teams had the same save percentage one year),
  • 6-1 over the last 8 years,
  • and 13-4 over the last 18 years!