Quant Facts -- Prediction Update

Our "quant facts" methods picked the World Series winner (San Francisco) after a lackluster performance in the earlier playoff rounds. Some sports fans noted that we "jumped the gun" a bit because our book's research is based on actual Championship games and series -- and not necessarily "the earlier playoff rounds."

Still, it was a fun and interesting experiment -- and our results are still a solid 17-9 in published "quant fact" predictions. The predictions are based on concepts of sports psychology that we quantify based on decades worth of data across the major US sports championships. Note that these approaches often pick teams and players that are underdogs, so that the 17-9 record is significant.

Our research shows that sports psychology concepts such as:

• leadership,
• coaching,
• experience,
• minimizing errors,
• consistency, and
• hard work (for example, less-glitzy skills such as defense) --

win championships. Please check out our book, "Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Approach."

Additional World Series article

If you are following the World Series, here are some articles based on a combination of quant research on concepts of sports psychology by Carlton Chin, of Adamah Capital, and Jay Granat, of StayIntheZone.com (for our book, "Who Will Win the Big Game?").

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SF fans may prefer the NY Times article -- since the article (which focuses on the numbers) leans to the Giants...

http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/27/which-team-has-world-series-winning-characteristics/

Texas fans may prefer this article, by my co-author, who goes for the softer "psychological" factors.

http://www.northjersey.com/community/family/reflections/105965198_Who_wins_the_World_Series_.html

For purposes of this blog's records, the "official" prediction for the World Series will remain the Giants (the original pre-World Series-published article in the NY Times) -- based on our "quant facts."

Happy Halloween!

Championship Traits that Win World Series

Please check out our article on the World Series featuring the Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants.


Excerpt:

After analyzing the championship games or series of the N.F.L., N.B.A., Major League Baseball and N.H.L., and the major finals in golf and tennis, we identified 50 championships characteristics in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

... these championship characteristics were identified by looking at World Series results, so let’s review the factors again in analyzing the World Series matchup between the San Francisco Giants and the Texas Rangers.
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Click here for the article:
http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/27/which-team-has-world-series-winning-characteristics/

Carlton Chin, co-founder of Adamah Capital, an alternative investment manager specializing in managed futures (with George Parr) -- and Jay Granat, founder of StayInTheZone.com, are authors of "Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method." They have previously written about the N.B.A. finals, the N.F.L. playoffs, and the N.C.A.A. men’s basketball tournament for the New York Times.