Combining SPORT PSYCHOLOGY & QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH to improve performance.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
March Madness: Elite 8 Probabilities
The Financial Markets Program at the University of Chicago - together with Carlton Chin, a fund manager - devised a March Madness pool -- that models each game as a financial marketplace. The pool is being run "round-by-round"so it can generate fresh pricing as each round develops.
The points awarded for correct selections -- are based on market participant entries. As a result, the final price for each game can be used as a proxy for the probability of a team advancing to the next round. Below is a table that shows the final pricing for the current round's match-ups. It is interesting that our financial marketplace model produced probabilities similar to projections from various sources. The pool is designed to study: